3 Must Bet NBA Season Long Props: Young Guns and ‘The Brodie’

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17 October 2023

3 Must Bet NBA Season Long Props: Young Guns and ‘The Brodie’

The 2023/24 NBA Season is less than 10 days away. You know what that means, it’s time to start locking in some NBA bets.

We’ve already talked a little about the divisional matchups this season, trying to identify a little value on the board. Today we’re talking about NBA Props, one of my favourite markets.

We’ll be discussing my three favourite NBA Season-long Prop Bets. So strap in because it’s about to be a season-long sweat.

Jordan Poole o24.5 PPG (-120) via Bovada

The Washington Wizards are off back to back 35-47 seasons under Coach West Unseld Jr. He now enters his third year with a completely different roster, and kind of blurry expectations.

With the losses of both Bradley Beal, and Kristaps Porzingis; the Wizards have kind of signalled a rebuild, finally.

This iteration of the Wizards will be run by both Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. With Poole entering his first year as a bonafide full time starter, I love the potential for a big year from the fifth year point guard.

In games Poole saw > 28 minutes last season, he averaged 25 ppg. He saw a 28% usage for the Warriors last season, mainly in a role off the bench, but still good enough for 2nd on the Dubs.

Poole shot 36% from 3 and 45% from the field the year the Dubs won it all. In a bit of a down year last year for Poole, surrounded by distractions; he still managed 20.4/game off the bench, seeing just 30 mpg and shooting 43 and 33% from deep.

Wizard Coach, Unseld Jr., has been relentless with his praise of Poole and his new expanded role with the Wizards. He talks about Poole not only taking on a scoring role, but also he’s also looking for him to be a leader on this team.

Poole’s saw a 30% usage rate in the 43 games he started last season, 0.4% higher than Steph’s usage as a starter. Poole is a score first point guard, with the ability to finish at the rim and score at all three levels.

With the Wiz, Poole’s looking to see closer to a 31-33% usage rate; in addition to 32-33 mpg. More in the ballpark of guys like Luka, Shai, and Ja; strictly usage wise.

Look for Poole to make that jump from good to great this season. Similar to the one we saw from James Harden when he got down to Houston.

J. Poole o24.5 Avg PPG (-120) via Bovada

Russell Westbrook o6.5 APG (-120) via Bovada

Russ has averaged fewer than 6.5 assists/game just twice in his career. One time came in his rookie year and once in 2011/12.

In his two seasons with the Lakers, he averaged 7.1 and then 7.5 in 52 games with them last year; 49 of these games were off the bench.

Once Russ once traded to the Clippers, he started all 21 games he played in, averaging 30.8 mpg. In these 21 games Russ averaged 15.8 ppg and 7.6 assists/game.

Russ signed a vet minimum last season, then re-signed with the Clippers for two years and $7.8 million in the off-season.. This is the same guy who was making $41 million a year, for five years; that’s almost $207 million.

Guys like Russ don’t take contracts like this unless they’ve bought into the team, and what the team’s trying to do. Head Coach Ty Lue is a big fan of Russ, and talks about his importance to the constantly.

Kawhi and PG both should benefit the most from fast breaks lead by The Brodie. With his propensity to push pace and find teammates in transition, I love Russ to average closer to a double double on the season.

R. Westbrook o6.5 Avg APG (-120) via Bovada

Jalen Green to Avg 22+ PPG (-120) via Bovada

Green enters his third year with the Rockets after averaging 22.1 points/game and shot just 41/6% from the field. He saw a bump in his usage as well, going from 14.2 to 17.9 field goal attempts/game.

Green played in 76 games, playing 34.2 mpg and got to the line 6.1 times/game.

In his last 20 games last season, Green was averaging 23.5 ppg on 43.4%. With such a young core, it’s easy to think Green’s usage may get lost in the shuffle.

I’d have to disagree.

Green was drafted with the 2nd overall pick in 2021, and additions like Vanvleet and Brooks have been brought in to try and build a contender around this young team; not to take from their usage.

Reports of James Harden joining the Rockets were quickly shut down, with the Rockets citing development of their young players as the reason.

The Rockets are looking for Green to develop into a go-to scorer, and be their guy for the future. Look for him to continue getting buckets in 2023/24.