Wizards vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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22 December 2023

Wizards vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

A long-awaited reunion for fans of the NBA as well as schadenfreude takes place on Friday night as Jordan Poole heads back to Golden State as his Wizards battle the Warriors. Our NBA betting picks see Poole adding to a disastrous season.

It’s a fact of life that the holiday season can be full of awkward reunions, as you’re forced to engage with distant cousins or unpleasant uncles. Take solace though, because odds are nothing you are set to experience over the Christmas break will be anywhere near as awkward as Jordan Poole’s first game in San Francisco as a Washington Wizard.

Golden State’s decision not to suspend Draymond Green for “the punch” was followed by trading Poole to Washington, a sequence of events that added a figurative black eye to the real one. Their hands-off approach to Draymond’s violent outbursts then and since has now landed him with an indefinite suspension.

So while there won’t be a Green vs. Poole moment on the court, you can rest assured the bitter breakup will be front of mind for both teams as they face off on Friday, December 22.

My NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Warriors believe Poole will try to force the issue on Friday, and I think that makes for one particularly valuable NBA odds bet.

Wizards vs Warriors odds

Wizards vs Warriors predictions

With the first matchup between Jordan Poole and his former squad in the Golden State Warriors on Friday, the fractious ending between the two sides has taken center stage. Steve Kerr has openly said he hated the way things ended, while Poole has tried to frame his overall time in Golden State in a positive light.

Draymond Green has spent most of the intervening time blaming the failure of last year’s team on bad chemistry (with seemingly no self-awareness) and getting suspended for various on-court altercations.

Nobody has come away from “the punch” clean. Green is currently indefinitely suspended for just his latest edition of reckless behavior since the punch, while Poole is currently playing some of the least serious basketball ever put on television.

The trade of Poole for Chris Paul looks to be a masterstroke for Golden State, as Paul has been good even as he clearly suffers age-related decline while Poole has been among the most damaging players in basketball.

Credible NBA and betting analysts thought that Poole might lead the league in scoring with the Washington Wizards, but just a couple of months in, there are already reports that Washington does not see him as a cornerstone player going forward.

Much of the hope and expectation that Poole could thrive in a primary role came from the court evidence in his stint with Golden State. Last season Poole averaged 17.8 points and 4.3 assists in games played alongside Steph Curry, while he upped that to 26.1 points and five assists in 26 games without him.

Upon surface-level evaluation, it appeared he was primed to thrive in a primary role and was being held back in Golden State. But that hasn’t panned out.

Not only is Poole averaging way below that 26.1-point mark this season, he’s averaging less than he did as Curry’s backup at just 17.2. He also has an abysmal 52.5% true shooting and his assist-to-usage ratio is in the fifth percentile among combo guards, per Cleaning the Glass. It’s some of the worst shot selection and teammate-blind play you will ever see.

The reason is both ironic and obvious. In those minutes that Poole played without Steph, he was almost always paired with Draymond. Draymond is a phenomenal playmaker, and his passing and screening were what allowed Poole to thrive as a primary scorer in Steph’s absence.

Just as Steph is at his best playing alongside Green, his influence was felt in Poole’s play. Without Green, Poole is a heavily-diminished, ineffective player, and comically overstretched even as a pseudo-No. 1 option.

While I’m shorting Poole, I don’t feel comfortable simply taking the Under on points. Poole is absolutely capable of scoring 21 or more in this game, particularly if he makes a point not to care about doing it efficiently against his former team.

Instead, I’m taking the Over on his turnover prop. Not only will his old team be aware of some of his worst tendencies in terms of passing and over-dribbling, it’s easy to see him trying to force it to “prove” they made a mistake by shipping him out in favor of a true point guard.

Poole has had three or more turnovers in six of his last eight games. Given the pressure of this messy reunion, I think these Jordan Poole odds make for a favorable prop bet.

My best bet: Jordan Poole Over 2.5 turnovers (-140 at bet365)

Wizards vs Warriors same-game parlay

Klay Thompson Over 20.5 points

Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 blocks

Kyle Kuzma Under 25.5 points

Poole’s turnover prop isn’t available for my same-game parlay, so in place of my best bet, I’m adding Klay Thompson Over 20.5 points to pair with Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 blocks and Kyle Kuzma Under 25.5 points.

Klay has finally, mercifully, shot his way out of the worst slump of his NBA career. Confidence is everything as a shooter, and he is an exceptionally emotional player. He’s now rattled off several quality games in a row and has scored 21 or more in four of his last five.

When Klay is rolling opposing defenses have little influence on his shot making, and I don’t think anyone on this Wizards team will prove the exception.

Kuzma is the best player on the Wizards, but I doubt that will stop him from taking a backseat to Poole on Friday. Even if Kuzma does wrest control of the offense, the Warriors have a strong defensive matchup for him in Jonathan Kuminga.

Kuminga has been up-and-down as a prospect, but he’s forced his way into the starting lineup recently and validated that decision with outstanding defense against Jayson Tatum on Tuesday. Kuzma is averaging just 23.8 points over his last 10 games.

Gafford is Washington’s last line of defense, and while he’s not a great rebounder, he is an exceptional shot blocker. Gafford’s 4% block rate puts him in the 92nd percentile among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass. He’s averaging 2.9 blocks over his last 10 games and hasn’t had a game with fewer than two in that same span.

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Wizards vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

As one would expect, Golden State is the heavy favorite for Friday’s tilt. They’re anywhere between -11.5 and -12.5 favorites depending on the sportsbook, a product of their superior talent, home-court advantage, and the Wizards having played last night.

The Warriors are also coming off a spirited win against their 2022 Finals opponents, the Boston Celtics. While the Celtics were without Kristaps Porzingis, it was proof of concept for how this version of Golden State can still be successful.

Steph remains a five-alarm fire for opposing defenses, Thompson hits shots, Paul steadies the second unit, and they get a critical athletic boost from Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis.

If this group finds their groove, they can still be a threat in the West. However, it’s hard to trust Golden State when they’re just 4-9 against the spread at home over their last 13 games.

The Wizards are also a shockingly strong 11-6 against the spread on the road this season, no doubt a product of low expectations and opponents taking them lightly.

The projections for this one are all over the map with the total for Friday hovering between 245.5 and 248.5 depending on the sportsbook.

Both the Wizards and Golden State have played in a lot of high-scoring games. The Wizards have consistently been among the worst defensive groups in the NBA, and the Over has cashed in six of their last 10 games.

The Warriors have been about average but much below their lofty standard. Particularly without Green, one can expect the Warriors' defense to slip into Bottom-10 territory. While the Wizards offense is not one would call high quality, the Warriors can turn it over so much in any given game that it doesn’t matter.