3 takeaways: After crippling loss, playoff math not on Penguins' side
Three takeaways from the Pittsburgh Penguins’ 5-2 loss to Chicago Tuesday night at PPG Paints Arena:
Playoff pendulum swings
According to moneypuck.com, an analytical website that provides comprehensive NHL playoffs odds, the Penguins (40-31-10, 90 points) entered Tuesday with a 60.7% chance to make the postseason.
That number would have risen to 73.4%, were the Penguins to have defeated Chicago in regulation, with the team even calculated at 27.2% odds to jump into control of the first Eastern Conference wild-card spot and thus avoid a first-round series against the buzzsaw Boston Bruins.
An overtime win against the Blackhawks would have put the Penguins at 71.9% playoffs odds.
But a major pendulum effect would come into play were the Penguins to fall to Chicago, Tuesday’s ultimate result.
Now, the odds of Pittsburgh making the postseason sit at 8.4%, having taken a massive 52.3% loss by way of their regulation loss to Chicago.
Only one route into the playoffs currently exists for the Penguins: a win Thursday at Columbus coupled with the Islanders losing in regulation against Montreal on Wednesday.
If the Islanders (41-31-9, 91 points) gain even a point against the Canadiens, the Penguins will play the Blue Jackets in a meaningless game.
The Penguins do not own a tiebreaker against Florida (42-31-8, 92 points), so supplanting the Panthers in the standings is now out of the question.
Opportunity squandered
On paper, Tuesday’s matchup against the Blackhawks looked tailor-made for the Penguins to capture a much-needed end-of-season victory to keep their postseason hopes alive.
As well as being the worst team in the Western Conference, Chicago came to Pittsburgh having just hosted the Minnesota Wild on Monday evening.
Add the lack of rest to the Blackhawks starting goalie Petr Mrazek and playing with 11 forwards and seven defensemen.
Heading into Tuesday, Mrazek was 9-22-3 on the year with a 3.71 goals-against average. In his last start, April 8 against Seattle, he allowed seven goals on 31 shots.
With the Islanders and Panthers both having lost Monday, a win for the Penguins against Chicago would have given them possession of the second Eastern Conference wild card spot with one game remaining in the regular season.
Taking that all into account, it is hard to conclude anything other than the hockey gods were smiling down on the Penguins ahead of Tuesday evening, gifting them a golden opportunity to take charge of their own fate and assertively position themselves for a 17th consecutive playoffs appearance.
Of course, while multiple factors seemed to be working in the Penguins’ favor on paper, they still had to take the ice, execute and win a hockey game against professional competition, regardless of how perceivably weak that foe was.
Unfortunately for the Penguins and their postseason aspirations, that did not transpire.
“We had an opportunity tonight to control our own destiny and it didn’t work out,” captain Sidney Crosby said. “We’ve got to find a way to rebound here and find a way to win the next one.”
Insult to injury
Given the stakes and the level of competition the Penguins faced Tuesday, there may not have exactly been a way in which they could have lost with any dignity.
Chicago made sure that didn’t happen, netting back-to-back third-period goals in the span of 26 seconds, taking a 3-1 lead while sucking the life out of the crowd at PPG Paints Arena.
Then, with less than 90 seconds remaining and the Penguins in full-on desperation mode, having yanked Tristan Jarry to give themselves a 6 on 4 power-play, Blackhawks winger Tyler Johnson found himself with the puck in the netural zone.
Skating around Kris Letang and a pursuing Crosby, Johnson buried the empty-netter and had a brief confrontation with the Penguins’ captain, exchanging words and shoves.
Chicago’s Mackenzie Entwistle would go on to score another empty-net goal with 23 seonds left in regulation, further putting away the already doomed Penguins.
“It stings for sure,” forward Jake Guentzel said after the loss. “We left a lot of points out there that we need. It’s just tough when you look back on it.”
