Chicago Blackhawks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins season opener prediction & best bet
Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.
Moneyline: Blackhawks (+198) vs. Penguins (-245)
Spread: Blackhawks +1.5 (-120) vs. Penguins -1.5 (+100)
Total: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (-102)
What more fitting NHL career debut for Connor Bedard than to face off against the player he’s expected to become in Sidney Crosby.
It’s almost as if an advantageous marketing decision was finally made in hockey.
Bedard enters the league with expectations as high as they have ever been for a No. 1 overall draft selection. He gives the Chicago Blackhawks a significant boost to their first line, but nurturing his skill set will be his top priority over contending this year.
The Pittsburgh Penguins return to play after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006 — Crosby’s rookie year. Since then, Kyle Dubas has taken over hockey operations and now Erik Karlsson joins the fold, which is a shot in the arm for Pittsburgh’s season outlook.
Let’s take a look at how I’m betting tonight’s NHL season opener with my prediction and pick for Blackhawks-Penguins.
This is a refocused, regrouped Penguins lineup. Just when the Crosby-Evgeni Malkin-Kris Letang era was beginning its downturn, the franchise decided to make bold improvements.
Pittsburgh’s power play went dry with a mediocre 21.7 percent rate. Its special teams has made way for Karlsson, who is propelling off of a Norris Trophy-winning campaign that included 27 power play points.
Adding Karlsson’s talents to a special teams with Letang gives the Penguins two of the most dangerous power play quarterbacks in professional hockey. Crosby and Malkin combined for 34.6 percent of Pittsburgh’s total power play points in 2022-23, so there’s no denying this unit will be a problem for everyone in the league.
Jake Guentzel will also be ready to go for puck drop as there was question around his availability due to ankle surgery recovery. He has been the Robin to Crosby’s Batman since entering the league seven seasons ago. Guentzel is a valuable asset on both 5-on-5 and the power play.
Tristan Jarry will be entrusted with the cage for another season after missing most of last year to injury. He posted a .909 save percentage and 2.90 GAA in the 47 games he did start. Jarry has been just fine as an NHL starter maintaining a .915 save percentage and 2.62 GAA since taking over the job four seasons ago.
The major test for him will come in the spring as the Penguins have never won a playoff series with him. He played in the second game of the season series against Chicago, which proved to be the dagger for Pittsburgh’s playoff aspirations after losing 5-2.
Two of those were empty net goals, but Jarry was off his game at the wrong time — allowing three goals on 25 shots. I expect him to bounce back from that effort Tuesday in front of home fans as he went 13-7-4 in Pittsburgh.
This is a better matchup than the market reflects as I think Penguins -245 on the moneyline is far too pricey. Kyle Davidson added color around Bedard with former MVP Taylor Hall and secondary scoring acumen with Ryan Donato. Veteran role players such as Corey Perry and Nick Foligno now bolster the bottom six.
Where I do think Chicago will suffer most is on their blueline as Seth Jones took a step back last season and other than him, it’s a work-in-progress group.
Petr Mrazek wasn’t all at fault in a wretched season that resulted in a .360 points percentage, but he’s not one of the stronger starting netminders in the league.
I’m looking for the renewed Penguins to come out wheeling and dealing. Crosby and co. should be sharp to in avenging their late season loss to Chicago and prevent Bedard from grabbing headlines against them at home.
There’s too much chalk on Bedard’s player props in this game. His mere presence is overshadowing the fact that the Penguins are the better hockey club pound-for-pound. The puck line offering even value is the best way to bet the superior lineup on Tuesday evening.
