406mtsports.com writers make picks for Sunday's FCS final

MISSOULA — Finding out Montana was pegged as a massive underdog for Sunday's FCS final was a little surprising for this longtime sports columnist.

Certainly unbeaten South Dakota State is the favorite. The defending national champs are riding a 28-game winning streak and demolished Albany in the semifinals, 59-0, on Dec. 15 in Brookings, S.D.

But 12 1/2-point favorites? I was thinking maybe 6-point favorites.

After all, we are talking about a SDSU team that barely escaped with a home win over Montana State in September, 20-16. Then South Dakota State barely skated by at Southern Illinois in October, 17-10, and had to hold off Villanova in a home playoff quarterfinal, 23-12, on Dec. 9.

Predicting the Jackrabbits will win by almost two touchdowns seems excessive.

I'm not a betting man, so maybe I'm just in the dark on these point spreads. A friend that knows more tells me betting lines are all about finding a number that entices people to bet both sides. Assuming the point spread stays the same, I'm betting a lot of Griz fans will wager on Sunday's game in Frisco, Texas.

Montana's many sports writers and broadcasters will analyze the Xs and Os until they're blue in the face prior to Sunday's game. I like to look at the intangibles. Sometimes they're more fun and interesting.

You certainly have to wonder if the underdog Grizzlies can win such a big game without the homefield advantage that has served them so well in their three playoff wins. You could argue the fans were the difference in their last two overtime games because Furman and South Dakota State were victimized by so many false starts caused by crowd noise.

My guess is Montana will have a few more fans than South Dakota State in Frisco. Mostly because the Grizzlies haven't been to the finals in 14 years and the Jackrabbits have been there two of the last three years.

If you see the world through Griz Goggles, you're telling yourself that your team has been surprising skeptics for almost three months now and will continue the trend Sunday. The surprises started in mid-October with a thrilling win at Idaho. Then Montana whipped Montana State last month, 37-7, in a game that highlighted how good the Grizzlies can be at their best.

I've written it before and I'll write it again: Montana has kicked it up a notch this season because it has tremendous assistants serving as offensive coordinator (Brent Pease) and defensive coordinator (Ronnie Bradford). Plain and simple, the Griz are better coached in 2023 than they were in 2022 when they lost in the playoff quarterfinals. 

To mark Sunday's special occasion, I have asked guest prognosticator Jeff Welsch to give his prediction for the chipper. He is 406/Montana sports editor and knows his stuff, having covered Pac-12 and Big Sky Conference football for many years. Montana football beat writer Frank Gogola has also offered his prediction. He knows the Grizzlies inside and out.

Sunday's game means everything to Grizzly head coach Bobby Hauck. Sooner or later, Montana is going to be back on top of the FCS mountain with its superior facilities (including an indoor practice area coming sometime this year), superior fan base and tradition of success. Mark my word.

The question is, how will Hauck be remembered after he retires? If he wins Sunday, those three losses in the FCS finals will be a mere footnote. If he loses, he's 0-4 when it matters most.

Huge games carry huge historical stakes.

Sunday's game predictions

No. 2 Montana (13-1) vs. No. 1 South Dakota State (14-0) (Noon in Frisco, Texas, ABC): The Grizzlies need a season-best game from their defense and quarterback Clifton McDowell needs help from a sputtering ground attack to pull the upset. That's a lot to ask. The Jackrabbits have a big advantage in FCS finals experience. But Montana's formula for success, which includes special teams fireworks and McDowell's scrambling ability, can work Sunday. My prediction is a third-straight playoff thriller for the Grizzlies. Maybe a little scoreboard pressure will prove to be the Jackrabbits' undoing. Speltz: Montana 36, South Dakota State 34. Gogola: South Dakota State 34, Montana 24. Welsch: SDSU 30, Montana 23.

Bill Speltz is Missoulian Sports Editor. Email Bill at [email protected].