Montana vs South Dakota State Prediction, Odds & Picks

Before the college football FBS national championship gets handed out Monday night, the college football FCS division championship will be decided one day prior. Montana takes on reigning champions South Dakota State in Frisco, Texas.

The latest FCS Championship odds are heavily in favor of the Jackrabbits, pitting Jimmy Rogers’ team as 13.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies. This is the second-highest spread in FCS Championship history (tied with EWU -13.5 vs Towson in 2018).

Let’s get into our Montana vs South Dakota State prediction, as we analyze the odds and preview the FCS Championship.

Montana vs South Dakota State Odds – FCS Championship

In the Montana vs South Dakota State odds for the FCS Championship Game, the Jackrabbits are heavy -525 favorites on the moneyline. SDSU’s implied chance of winning based on the odds is 84%. The over/under is at 49.5 points.

Montana and South Dakota State have played eight times (from 1969 to 2016), with the Grizzlies winning all eight meetings. However, they haven’t met since the first round of the 2015 playoffs, in which Montana won 24-17.

Kickoff for Sunday’s FCS Championship is at 2:00 PM ET at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. ESPN will carry the broadcast.

Odds as of January 4th, 2024 at ESPN Bet.DIME“. Bet anything on the game and get $150!

Grizzlies Aim to Pull Stunning Upset

The Montana Grizzlies look to cap off their incredible season with a shocking upset of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the FCS Championship. Following an early-season loss to Arizona, Montana has won seven straight games, including four over ranked opponents.

Montana was in a dogfight with FCS powerhouse North Dakota State in the semi-final, emerging victorious in OT by a 31-29 final score. Grizzlies quarterback Clifton McDowell threw for 160 yards and one TD, while RB Eli Gillman punched in two scores on the ground.

McDowell has been effective under center for Montana this season, throwing for 1,861 yards and 13 touchdowns this year along with just three interceptions. Aiding McDowell in the backfield is standout freshman running back Eli Gillman.

The recipient of this year’s Jerry Rice Award, Gillman has been the centerpiece of Montana’s offense. He’s run for 950 yards and 12 scores this year while averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Defensively, the Grizzlies have been very stringent against the run, allowing just 102.8 yards per game on the ground. They’ve been more vulnerable through the air, however, allowing 208.4 yards per game, which is only 58th in the FCS.

Jackrabbits in Familiar Territory

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are playing in their third title game since the 2021 spring season. SDSU has won 28 straight games and has been steamrolling the competition. In three playoff games, SDSU has outscored opponents by a 123-12 margin.

The Jackrabbits’ most recent outing was a 59-0 blowout victory over Albany in the semi-finals, in which they held the Great Danes to under 300 yards of total offense. SDSU QB Mark Gronowski was near-perfect, throwing for 265 yards and three scores, while RB Isaiah Davis had 107 yards and two TDs on the ground.

SDSU has been dominant in all facets of the game, although their defense might be the most impressive. The Jackrabbits have allowed less than 10 points per game this season and shut out three different opponents. They rank second against the run and seventh against the pass.

A big part of South Dakota State’s success this season has been their ability to force turnovers. They forced four of them against Albany to give them an FCS-leading 26 turnovers gained (18 interceptions) on the season. On the other side of the ball, the veteran Gronowski has only thrown four interceptions this year.

Montana vs South Dakota State Prediction

Montana is capable of keeping this game close, but several things will need to go their way. McDowell has to spread the ball out to his talented receivers while also using his legs to keep plays alive. The Jackrabbits have racked up 24 sacks while allowing under 100 rush yards per game.

While not as strong as their run game, the SDSU secondary is ferocious, led by senior cornerback Dalys Beanum and safety Tucker Large. Each player has seven defended passes, while Beanum has come up with an interception in each playoff game.

We expect this game to stay somewhat close in the first half until the Jackrabbits pull away in the final two quarters. Gronowski is too experienced and poised to slip up against Montana’s inefficient defensive line (14 sacks), while Davis has been near unstoppable on the ground.

For our best Montana vs SDSU prediction, we’re leaning towards the Grizzlies to cover the first-half spread at ESPN Bet . SDSU trailed at halftime in last year’s national championship, and the Grizzlies possess the weapons to at least keep pace for one half.