6 things to know about tonight’s NHL draft lottery, including whom the Chicago Blackhawks might pick if they don’t get dibs on Connor Bedard

The Chicago Blackhawks have just an 11.5% probability to win the No. 1 selection in Monday night’s NHL draft lottery — and dibs on phenom Connor Bedard — but all isn’t lost if he’s not available when the Hawks pick on June 28.

Director of amateur scouting Mike Doneghey said the Hawks haven’t batted an eye about their odds..

“As a group, from (general manager) Kyle (Davidson) on down to our scouting, we’re in a good spot, we’re excited,” Doneghey told the Tribune. “The general sentiment is (with) that first(-round) pick we’re getting a good player. Whether it’s (No.) 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, we’re going to get a household name.”

In the previous 27 lotteries, the team with the third-best odds has won the top pick six times, most recently in 2019, when the New Jersey Devils selected forward Jack Hughes. The Hawks moved from 12th to third in that draft and selected forward Kirby Dach.

The Hawks famously struck gold in 2007, moving from fifth to first and picking Patrick Kane — the only time they’ve won the lottery.

Whether or not Bedard is destined to become the Hawks’ next Kane, they feel good about their chances of landing a foundational player for the rebuild. They’re also really high on Michigan forward Adam Fantilli, the consensus No. 2 pick.

If the Anaheim Ducks retain the first pick, the Hawks’ probability of winning the second draw is 14.1%. If the Columbus Blue Jackets win the first draw, it’s 13.3%. And if a team between Nos. 4 and 11 leapfrogs the Hawks for the top pick, the chances at No. 2 range between 11.9% and 12.7%.

However the lottery shakes out for the Hawks, they also have the Tampa Bay Lightning’s first-round pick, which likely will be No. 20.

“Kyle has done a good job of getting draft capital, and you want to get those picks as high as you can,” Doneghey said. “And now having two picks in the top 20 ... it goes a long way for what we want to accomplish in the future.”

Doneghey talked with the Tribune about the Hawks’ views on this draft. Here are six things we learned.

Michkov is under contract with his KHL team, SKA Saint Petersburg, through 2026. And Russia’s international tensions raise concerns about Russian players encountering visa issues.

“Every directive that I’ve gotten from Kyle and (associate GMs) Norm McIver and Jeff Greenberg is that every player is on the table and we’re evaluating these players on their traits and what they and I think their upside is going to be as an NHL player and not what the geopolitical climate is in 2023 or what (Michkov’s) contract might be for the next few years,” Doneghey said. “Our job is to evaluate the players on the traits that we want to identify, and naturally Michkov meets a lot of those traits. So everything that I’ve been told from Kyle on down is that everybody’s in play.”

Davidson said as much in April, that the Hawks wouldn’t be scared off by the risks in taking Michkov.

“Everyone is on the board,” Davidson told reporters after the season. “I don’t necessarily think that being available to us tomorrow is a prerequisite for us to draft you or not. This is not something we’re going to fix overnight; it’s not something we’re going to fix in Nashville at the draft. It’s something that’s going to take time.

“This was Year 1. We had a great draft class last year. We’ll see how they develop, but early returns are positive. Hopefully we have the same feeling leaving Nashville for the 2023 class, and then there’s going to be more classes after that.”

In Doneghey’s estimation, Bedard is in a tier by himself, and the next tier includes Michkov, Fantilli and Leo Carlsson.

“But in the whole landscape of the draft and then becoming young men and NHL players, it could change,” Doneghey said.

He thought back to the 2021 IIHF U18 World Championship, in which Michkov “went toe to toe” with Bedard and was named MVP. He added that comparisons aren’t fair to Michkov “because of where he is playing.”

“If you don’t have a Russian scout, the majority of the viewings are on video,” Doneghey said. “So that kind of plays into him falling a little bit. But from a talent perspective, it would have been really an interesting conversation if they had an equal opportunity this year to present themselves.”

Michkov’s scoring ability and competitiveness stand out.

“I think guys that score goals, they have a high hockey IQ because they just know where to be on the ice,” Doneghey said. “They kind of have that sense where loose pucks are going to pop out, too, and they end up on their sticks.

“So for Michkov, he’s got a high IQ that he sniffs plays out before they happen, so that allows him to get to areas where pucks are going to be. And he’s got a wicked release and an accurate release and that, accompanied with the IQ, makes him an elite goal scorer.”

With the caveat that Doneghey didn’t know Kane and Toews when they started out as prospects, Bedard’s and Fantilli’s profiles remind him of the three-time Stanley Cup-winning duo.

“A lot of people compare (Fantilli) to Jonathan because they took similar paths,” Doneghey said. “Jonathan played at North Dakota, Adam played at Michigan. Adam is 6-2, Jonathan is 6-2. They’re both centers, they’re both left shots, they both play a similar style.

“And then Connor, his speed-to-skill-to-shot ratio is probably like a Kane where he’s going to be able to put up really good offensive numbers.”

At the beginning of the season, when the draft’s must-have list was the trio of Bedard, Fantilli and Michkov, Doneghey advised to watch out for Swedish center Carlsson — but to keep it under wraps.

Well, that cat’s out of the bag.

“With Leo, the skating’s good,” Doneghey said. “The IQ — like, his hockey brain — is off the charts. He sees plays happen.

“He’s 6-3. He’s played center up until the last couple of years, and then like with most young kids, he gets bumped out to the wing. But he projects as a center.”

Doneghey said every time he sees Carlsson, he can see the maturation.

“He just keeps getting physically stronger,” he said. “And the more comfortable he gets with his surroundings, the better he seems to play.”

Some earlier projections had winger Matthew Wood as a possible target at No. 20, but that’s unlikely now.

“Matthew just had a good tournament at the U18s (seven goals and six assists in seven games), so he’s probably going to enter into that top 15 and 9-to-12 range,” Doneghey said.

Though it’s considered a deep draft, it’s tilted toward forwards, so at some point “there’ll be a run on defensemen,” Doneghey said.

“You look at (Axel) Sandin Pellikka, a defenseman from Sweden, he’s going to be an attractive player there. He’s an offensive defenseman, he runs the power play (on) his club team and in the Swedish junior team. Good IQ, really good puck comfort.”

Ethan Gauthier made a big jump in production in his second season with the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix, notching 30 goals and 39 assists in 66 games — up from 18 goals and 21 assists in 65 games last season.

“He’s always around the net,” Doneghey said. “He was on that Ivan Hlinka (Cup U18 Canada) team, too, in August that (Zach) Benson played on. … He had six goals in that tournament.

“But he gets those greasy goals. He’s around the net, quick hands, creates body positioning, so he’s a very competitive kid.”

Doneghey also mentioned Czech winger Eduard Sales as possibly landing in that range.

“It all depends on how teams want to construct their roster,” he said. “Do they want to take some defensemen early (or) do they want to go forward-heavy early.”

Fans cringed when the Hawks beat the playoff-hopeful Pittsburgh Penguins late in the season, an outcome that played a large role in falling to the third-best lottery odds.

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As Davidson noted during his end-of-season news conference, Doneghey said upsets against the Boston Bruins, Calgary Flames and other contenders played an equal role.

“You take any of those games and it’s still all well and good, but it still ends up being a lottery, right?” Doneghey said. “There’s no guarantee.

“When I got put in the position last year, we had zero first-round picks. And then (after trades) we had three first-round picks by the time the draft started.

“But now you can go into the planning stages a lot earlier, between the first-round picks and the four second-round picks, and we’ll be busy in the second and third rounds. Our guys did a good job.”

Doneghey knows fans likely will have something to say if the Hawks don’t emerge from this draft with Bedard — but they probably would anyway. He remembered when fans and pundits thought the Hawks “reached” for high school defenseman Sam Rinzel in last year’s first round when he was projected as a high second-round pick.

“We took Rinzel at (25) in the first round, so would people have liked it better if we took him at 33, which was the first pick of the second round?” Doneghey said. ”You’re talking the difference of (eight) players.

“I appreciate the fans’ passion. They want to win, they want the best prospects, they want the best players, they want to win the Stanley Cup, they want to win the draft, they want to win trades. I think they’re great. Love it.”