6 Ultimate Tips for Betting on Player Props
If they feel like diving into the numbers, customers have more information, stats, and numbers at their disposable than ever before. The spread, money line and totals markets have and still are the most popular selections at sportsbook operators across the United States, which is constantly growing with its legalization, and there are no signs that those will be the most wagered on markets in the future.
But prop markets have carved out a growing niche that has created many alternate ways to wager on a game compared to the traditional markets presented before customers.
Remember! Sportsmemo offers predictions on TONS of player props in our free picks and premium expert betting predictions sections all year long.
Player Prop Betting Tip #1 : Find An Edge at Sportsbooks
Because the money line, spread and totals are the most popular and wagered on markets, there are less data points in the prop bet markets. The less data points available for a market, the easier it is to find value or an inefficiency across different sportsbook operators.
When comparing across sportsbook operators for props, there is a good chance the props odds or vig will be slightly different.
For example, Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing against the Brooklyn Nets. These are three options for Antetokounmpo's point prop across three different sportsbooks.
Just a little bit of research shows that if a customer was interested in taking Antetokounmpo's over point total, they should go to FanDuel Sportsbook as the number is the same at all three sportsbooks, but the customer must risk the least amount ($114 to win $100) compared to the other two sportsbooks.
Player Prop Betting Tip #2: Analyze Specific Matchups!
Sometimes it's less about what teams are good at, and more about exploiting weaknesses in prop betting. For example, if MVP candidate Joel Embiid on the Philadelphia 76ers is going against a lowly Detroit Pistons team who rank 25 in the NBA in rebounding and have an injury to one of their starting centers, Embiid props for that night are going to be a favorable play depending how high the number is.
Knowing what players and teams are good at is easier to keep track in comparison to keeping track of what the lesser quality teams in a respective league struggle with. Matching up a player's strengths against another team's weakness can create a window of opportunity in the props markets.
Player Prop Betting Tip #3: Act On Injury Reports, Roster Updates
Tyus Jones is the backup point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies, frequently spelling Ja Morant during most regular season games. The sportsbook operators have many more data points on Morant starting and playing his usual 35 minutes a game and Jones subbing in for his 20 minutes a game.
If Morant is taking a night off to rest a slight injury on a road trip or is taking a general rest day, sportsbook operators have less data points on what Jones can do in a full 35 minutes of action on the court.
Of course, there are experiences and nights to draw from, but there is less data on that situation which allows for the lines to be not as concrete compared to a player who is cemented as a starter with major minutes.
Player Prop Betting Tip #4: Create Same Game Parlays With A Narrative
If a customer is feeling optimistic about how a specific team will perform in an upcoming game, combining multiple props from the same game to create a same game parlay can create a boost in payout.
For instance, if a customer thinks the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be able dominate the San Antonio Spurs, instead of choosing the Lakers to win, one can create a Same Game Parlay that includes:
- Lakers to win
- LeBron James to score 25+ points
- Anthony Davis to score 25+ points
A wager that originally started around -300 with the Lakers to win can be whittled down to -175 with the likely strong performance from the Lakers against a lowly Spurs team. Read about advanced same game parlay strategies here {link internal}
Player Prop Betting Tip #5: Avoid Lucky Propositions
There are many prop listings that are somewhat on the 'lucky' side and are not entirely controlled by a player on the field or court. In a 10-game stretch from 1/12/23 – 1/31/23, James recorded seven blocks. In five of those 10 games, James did not record a block.
For lack of a better term, adding 'luckier' props like blocks and steals that are categorically more in the random territory is a good way to bust up a narrative-driven, stat-supported Same Game Parlay.
Player Prop Betting Tip #6: Find Value In Negative Props
When having a prop list up on the screen customers want to think about what a player could or should do. How many three pointers will Stephen Curry make? How many passes will Aaron Rodgers complete?
Because of the naturally positive outlook on props when looking over them daily, there is value to be found in selecting under props. More value and line discrepancies for player prop can be found in the under selections across sportsbooks. Below are the Atlanta Hawks' Trae Young assists totals for a game against the Washington Wizards.
It is easy to avoid FanDuel's projection on Young's assists numbers for that night compared to the other two sportsbooks. Finding these discrepancies will help create a long-term successful plan when toiling in prop markets.
SportsMemo Offers Picks & Betting Education
Remember! Sportsmemo offers predictions on TONS of player props in our free picks and premium expert betting predictions sections all year long.
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