How to bet NFL player props
As legal sports betting spreads, oddsmakers are offering more and more options for bettors. Player prop markets attract fewer betters than sides and totals. The limits are lower and the lines are softer. It's not easy to evaluate a prop. Even if your goal is recreational, you should still work out the rules before placing your first bet. The rules are not clear enough to make a proper evaluation.
Tom Brady is expected to throw for 267.6 yards on Sunday. The over is appealing at +102. Pro Football Focus projects Brady will toss for 305.8 yards. Mike Evans is suspended for the game. The median is the midpoint of the entire distribution of outcomes. It is more likely a passer will throw more than 400 yards than zero. There are tools that allow you to enter average projections to get prices for various data points. Some outlets teach you how to create your own projections. For example, Unabated teaches you about how it's possible to make your projections yourself.
FanDuel offered Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards total at 185.5 for this week”s Thursday night game while Caesar offered 193. 5. Anytime touchdown markets often have exploitable differences in pricing. The price for rookie fullback Zander Horvath to score a touchdown was +600 on DraftKings. The same bet was priced at +1200 on Caesars and +1600 on FanDula.
Some player props are to be avoided. Buffalo scored the first touchdown in 16 of its games last season. Pat Freiermuth scoring a touchdown on Thursday night and going over 49½ receiving yards would pay +550 with a boost at Caesars.
