76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets by model on 86-58 run

Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers in a crucial Game 5 on Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Heat won the first two games of the series at home, but they lost the last two on the road. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 2.5-point home favorites. SportsLine's advanced computer model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,00 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons.

SportsLine's advanced computer model has set its sights on 76ers vs. Heat. The model is on an 86-58 run. 76er's are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games. Miami Heat are 5-5 against-the-spread in playoff games in recent years.

76ers vs. Heat is a playoff game. The 76ers are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games. Miami is 5-5 against-the-spread in playoff games, including 5 against a spread of 2.5.

The 76ers are scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. They are shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 38.7 percent on 3-point range. The 76er's offense is balanced with Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Their defense is also very good, limiting opponents to less than 1.1 points a possession.

The Heat finished the NBA's regular season as the best 3-point shooting team in the league. Miami is also in top eight in 3, 3P%, free throw accuracy, assists, and assist rate. Jimmy Butler is an elite creator, averaging 29.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game in this playoffs. The Heat are also playing well on defense, ranking No. 2 in NBA playoffs in defensive efficiency.

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total and predicts 212 combined points for 76ers vs. Heat. One side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.