76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, spread, time: 2023 NBA Christmas Day picks, best bets from proven model
The NBA is featuring another loaded Christmas Day schedule with five high-profile games. In the fourth matchup of the day, the Miami Heat will welcome the Philadelphia 76ers to Kaseya Center. The Sixers are 20-8 overall and 8-4 on the road this season, riding high behind reigning MVP Joel Embiid. The Heat are 17-12 overall and 8-6 at home, with star forward Jimmy Butler missing the last two games with a calf issue.
Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Miami. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Philadelphia as the 1.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226.5 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. 76ers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:
- 76ers vs. Heat spread: Heat +1.5
- 76ers vs. Heat over/under: 226.5 points
- 76ers vs. Heat money line: Heat +103, 76ers -122
- PHI: The 76ers are 8-4 against the spread in home games
- MIA: The Heat are 4-10 against the spread in road games
Why the 76ers can cover
The 76ers are led by one of the game's best players in Embiid, who they hope will be past an ankle injury that has him listed as day-to-day. The 7-footer is the reigning NBA MVP after a historic performance in 2022-23, and Embiid has been even better to begin the 2023-24 campaign. He leads the NBA with 35.0 points per game, scoring more than a point per minute. Embiid is also averaging 11.7 rebounds and a career-best 6.0 assists per game, and he leads the league with 258 free throws made this season.
Embiid enters this Christmas matchup having scored 30 or more points in 14 consecutive contests. Over that span, he is averaging 37.4 points per game on 56.8% shooting from the field and 90.6% from the free throw line. He also has three straight 30-point outputs in Christmas Day games, and he is averaging 31.3 points and 12.8 rebounds per game in his career on the holiday. The talented center is the most prominent figure on one of the league's best offenses, with Philadelphia scoring more than 1.21 points per possession in 2023-24. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami has some level of injury uncertainty with Butler missing the last two games with a calf issue. However, the Heat still have offensive firepower with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Herro is averaging 24.2 points per game this season, and he is making more than 43% of his 3-point attempts. Over the last three games, Herro is averaging 27.7 points and 55.4% shooting, and he provides high-level usage for Miami's offense.
Adebayo is putting up 21.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game this season, and he is a four-time All-Defensive team selection. Adebayo is one of the most versatile and dynamic big men in the league, and he unlocks Miami's varied approach on both ends. The Heat are also leading the NBA in 3-point accuracy, making 39.6% of long-range attempts. Miami also ranks in the top three in free throw accuracy (83.3%), with above-average marks in assists (26.2 per game) and turnover prevention (13.3 giveaways per game). See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 233 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
