A URC weekend where underdogs can be spoilers

It feels like it has been a “beware of the underdog” buildup week to the 15 round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, particularly but not only in South Africa.

Locally the final league derbies of the season see the DHL Stormers and Vodacom Bulls clearly defined as favourites as they host the Cell C Sharks and the Emirates Lions in a South African Saturday double header. The Stormers need to win to remain comfortable in their quest for second spot on the final log, while the Bulls are now outside of the top four and need to get back up there.

What ups the ante further for the two home teams this weekend is what comes next - after a three week break in the competition, the Stormers will head to Dublin to play imperious Leinster, while the Bulls will go to Belfast to face an Ulster team that suddenly has the bit between the teeth in their quest for a better finish than last year’s third.

BOTH VISITING TEAMS HAVE MUCH TO PLAY FOR

The problem for both host teams though is that their opponents have much to play for too. The Sharks will be eager to avenge their big defeat to the Stormers in the first coastal derby in Durban four weeks ago. They can also still make the top four if they win all their remaining games.

The Lions’ win over the Glasgow Warriors last week has given them a small opening in their quest for a top eight spot. An opening that is likely to be shut permanently if they lose at Loftus.

It is not just in South Africa though that it has been “beware of the underdog” week, that has also been the case in Belfast, where Ulster supporters have been understandably nervous about their team’s trip to Cardiff. Having played themselves back into contention for a top four spot, Ulster don’t need a hiccup now. And Cardiff do have much to play for as they go in quest of both a top eight position and the Welsh Shield, where they are ahead at the moment.

Cardiff upset Munster at home earlier in the season, as well as the Stormers come to think of it, so the South African sides will be hoping they can repeat that form.

Munster have also become a threat to SA’s two teams in the top four ambitions, so no prizes will be awarded for guessing that Scarlets will also have support on Friday night. But the local teams shouldn’t be banking on Welsh wins in either so a win is an imperative for both the Stormers and the Bulls on Saturday.

The Stormers are undeniably the form team in the county at the moment but the Sharks’ intent could make them the most dangerous of those feared underdogs this weekend.

Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures

Munster v Scarlets (Limerick, Friday, 21.35)

Scarlets have picked up some momentum after their surprise win over the Bulls at the end of January but Munster are in even better form and have had their motivation intensified and their confidence boosted by their climb up the log from nowhere to fifth. They need to win to challenge for a top four position.

Prediction: Munster to win by 12.

Glasgow Warriors v Zebre (Glasgow, Friday, 21.35)

The Glasgow captain didn’t wait long after the defeat to the Emirate Lions last week, in fact it was in the post-match television interview on Supersport, to talk up the importance of this fixture. Glasgow are now being challenged for their top four position and after seeing their long sequence of unbeaten games ended, they will desperately want to get back onto the horse. Against the competition’s whipping boys, they should manage that fairly comfortably.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 20.

DHL Stormers v Cell C Sharks (Cape Town, Saturday, 14.30)

The Sharks’ loss to Ulster last week had the effect of making this game more important for the Stormers. A first loss in 21 starts at the DHL Stadium could see them caught by Ulster in second place this weekend. The Sharks have a lot of motivation inspired by not just last week’s defeat but probably even more so the chastening comprehensive defeat at the hands of the Cape team four weeks ago. The teams have yet to be announced but the Stormers look set to go with their strongest available side and at a venue where they are now officially anchor tenants and have won 20 on the trot they must start as strong favourites. However, the Sharks look stronger than they were in the first round game in Durban and it should be a lot closer than it was at HollywoodBets King Park.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 7

Vodacom Bulls v Emirates Lions (Pretoria, Saturday, 16.45)

The Lions don’t have their backs to the wall to the same extent that it was the case last week when they hosted Glasgow. So maybe there isn’t quite the level of desperation. There again, they do have the confidence that should have come with beating one of the competition’s top teams, and their motivation should be the need to break their long sequence of defeats to South African sides. They haven’t won a derby since they shocked the Stormers in Cape Town in December 2021. The Bulls though don’t get beaten often at Loftus and the fact the Stormers humbled them at home two weeks ago should put them in a mean mood in this game. Put another way, if they lose this game then they could be in proper trouble. They shouldn’t lose.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 10

Edinburgh v Leinster (Edinburgh, Saturday, 19.05)

Edinburgh are on the fringes of the top eight and need to start winning if they are going to make the playoffs. Already the chances of making it into the Heineken Champions Cup next season, a competition they have done well in this year, appear to be evaporating due to the form of Glasgow Warriors, who are comfortably winning the Scotland/Italy Shield, and the strength of the teams in the top seven. This week they are up against a Leinster team in imperious form but on their home field the absence of so many Irish internationals from the Leinster team could just give them an outside chance of pulling off an upset. But you don’t bet against a team that has won 14 out of 14, with most of those wins being comfortable home and away.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 9

Ospreys v Benetton (Swansea, Saturday, 19.15)

This is a difficult one to call. The Ospeys were flying a few weeks back, but then came horribly unstuck against Munster last time out. They lost that game 58-3. But they are still in contention for the Welsh Shield, not far behind Cardiff, and might have a few of the fringe Welsh internationals back during this break weekend in the Six Nations. Benetton are in contention for a playoff spot and have plenty to play for.

Prediction: Ospreys to scrape it.

Dragons v Connacht (Newport, Saturday, 21.35)

Connacht are in eighth position, meaning they currently qualify for the playoffs, and as that is not something they achieve often, it should mean they travel to Newport highly motivated.

Prediction: Connacht to win by 7

Cardiff Rugby v Ulster (Cardiff, Saturday, 21.35)

The South African teams, save perhaps the Sharks, will be supporting Cardiff.. The Bulls and Stormers because they are contending for top four spots. The Sharks might not be so keen on a Cardiff win because it could bring the Welsh team into contention for a top eight position. Cardiff have been good at home this season but Ulster showed steely resolve and impressive efficiency in winning in Durban last week and should win if they can repeat that in Cardiff.