AC Milan vs Dortmund Odds, Prediction

AC Milan vs Dortmund Odds

AC Milan and Dortmund meet at the San Siro for a massive match that could decide who gets out of the group of death in the Champions League.

Milan are in a precarious position right now. They got the three points they needed against PSG last time out, but are still sitting in third place in the group, one point behind PSG and two points behind Dortmund. They could potentially be without their best player, Rafael Leao, which would be a big blow for their chances of progressing in this competition.

Dortmund are surprisingly at the top of the group with seven points after beating Newcastle a second time. However, Dortmund have been pretty poor in the Bundesliga this season, so it's a bit puzzling that they are sitting atop the group. They have PSG coming to Germany on the final day, so a point here could be crucial for them getting through to the Round of 16.

Let's get into my AC Milan vs Dortmund prediction.

The approach that AC Milan decide to take here is fascinating because they are in a situation where they need three points from this match at home because they have to go to St. James Park on the final day of the group stage.

That is not a position AC Milan are typically comfortable in. Stefan Pioli has been trying to come out and be a more aggressive high-pressing team, but it hasn't worked against good competition. In the first meeting with PSG, they tried to man-mark press them and got completely destroyed because quite simply it's really hard to mark Kylian Mbappe with just one player.

AC Milan have been struggling for goals in this competition, but that doesn't mean they haven't created chances. Through their first four Champions League matches they have scored just two goals off of 4.1 xG. In their last match against Dortmund they ended up creating 1.6 xG, but failed to find the back of the net.

What AC Milan were struggling with in possession in the previous meeting is playing through Dortmund's narrow defensive block. Dortmund were fine letting the ball go wide to the opposing full backs and AC Milan didn't really have a way of playing through. They were pretty poor in build up, completing only 83% of their passes, which is their lowest rate of the season.

AC Milan conceded a lot of possession to Dortmund. They tried pressing with a couple of different methods, but Julian Brandt was consistently finding space in between the lines because AC Milan's center backs wouldn't track him, while everyone else was man to man marking. This caused Brandt to cut through Milan's defensive shape and get the ball into the box quite often. Even though Dortmund only created 1 xG they were still able to get off 18 shots and had 11 box entries, so if Milan have to be aggressive with their pressing Dortmund could turn those 18 shots into better chances.

The must-have app for soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Dortmund are such an interesting team at the moment because they have been so bad defensively when they've had to play good competition, but they continue to get results. Against Bayern Munich, Vfb Stuttgart, PSG and AC Milan they conceded a combined 11.4 xG. The reason for it is because they really aren't that great in their defensive block or in transition defense.

They are 17th in the Bundesliga in final to box entry conversion rate allowed, meaning 33% of the time an opponent is getting into Dortmund's final third, they are getting into the penalty area. The problem is Dortmund don't have a lot of ball winning in the middle of the pitch. Emre Can is averaging 4.2 interceptions + tackles per 90 minutes – which is great – but nobody else is anywhere close to that figure. Jude Bellingham along with Can last season was a great combination, but without Bellingham's ball winning teams have been able to play through Dortmund.

The other problem that Dortmund have run into is they've been pretty poor in build up play. Right now, they do not have a clear plan of using short passes to play the ball through the opponents line of defense, which means they've had to rely on long balls far too often. Dortmund are averaging 81 long balls per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, which is fifth-most and pretty surprising for a team that is holding 56.3% possession on average. It can be boiled down to there isn't really much ball-retention or press resistant midfielders outside of Can. So, that means either Dortmund have been forced wide or they had to send the ball long.

What this does is creates a very back and forth transitional type of match with a team of Milan's caliber that is fantastic in transition even if they don't have Leao available. You can question Dortmund in build up, but the reality is they have the personnel and quite frankly are better as a mainly transition-based team because they are still averaging 1.90 npxG per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga.

AC Milan vs Dortmund

Prediction

AC Milan having to be more aggressive out of possession is likely going to force Dortmund into a lot of long balls, which means that this match is likely going to turn into a up and down affair.

In theory a point would be huge for Dortmund, but the problem is that they haven't been good in set defense against good competition, so if AC Milan are able to score first and force Dortmund out of their defensive block then this match going to be off the rails. Dortmund are allowing 2.20 xG per 90 minutes when playing from behind and 1.70 xG per 90 minutes from an even game state, per understat.

With AC Milan having to go to Newcastle on the final day of the group stage, they need three points from this match, so I am expecting a very aggressive approach from Pioli. I have 3.05 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-118 via bet365)