Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction

Chelsea vs Brentford Odds

Chelsea looks to keep the positive momentum going when they host Brentford at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea was disappointed to only get a point against Arsenal in their previous match after going up 2-0. Mauricio Pochettino's side hasn't produced the results it should be getting given how favorable its schedule was to begin the season and they are now reaching a difficult stretch where they need points.

Brentford has been up-and-down, but got a much needed three points against Burnley in their most recent match. The win ended an eight match winless run and was much deserved given the underlying metrics Brentford has been posting. They gave Chelsea all sorts of fits last season and will be able to do the same Saturday.

Chelsea is playing a 3-1-6 fluid build up system, which is great when trying to overload the last line of defense and create width to stretch the defense, but once Chelsea gets into the final third, everything gets disjointed and they struggle to find the back of the net. Chelsea is ninth in npxG and 12th in big scoring chances through nine matches against one of the easiest schedules in the Premier League.

Yes, they scored twice against Arsenal, but the first goal came on a penalty and the second was a wonder strike from outside the box. Outside of the penalty, Chelsea created just 0.6 xG from open play. They had success in their previous match and beat Burnley 4-1, but they play an aggressive high-pressing style that is the exact opposite of what they are going to face against Brentford.

If Chelsea is going to build up in a 3-1-6, that'll leave a ton of space in the middle of the pitch for Brentford to do what they do best — win the ball in their own final third and spring a quick transitional attack. It’s one of the reasons Chelsea has struggled in transition defense and ranks 14th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.

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Brentford are so good in these types of matches against teams that struggle once they enter the final third. The Bees ability to play a 5-3-2 out of possession, clog up the middle of the pitch, and keep teams out of their penalty area has allowed them to have success against the top six. They stifled Chelsea in both meetings last season — winning on a combined 2.4 to 2.1 xG — and did so while holding under 35% possession in both matches.

Some would label Brentford's rest defense as passive, but it's much different than that. Yes, they will allow teams to circulate the ball around their central block, but Brentford is very active in their low block. The Bees are sixth in PPDA and fourth in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, which has translated to them being top five in both expected goals allowed and big scoring chances allowed.

Even though the Bees are in the bottom half of the table and only have two wins on the season, they are still putting up great underlying offensive numbers, even without Ivan Toney. They are so good offensively because of their ability to attack the wide areas of the pitch. When the Bees recover the ball in their own final third, they look to make quick attacking transitions by sending long balls out wide with the wingbacks.

Brentford also loves to utilize long balls when they win the ball in their own final third. The Bees are attempting 73.6 long balls per 90 minutes, which is fifth most in the Premier League. The return on that is pretty impressive as Brentford is averaging 1.87 xG per 90 minutes and has created eight big scoring chances, both of which are top 10 in the Premier League.

Chelsea vs Brentford

Prediction

Brentford, over the past two-and-a-half years, has been one of the best teams at getting results against the big six. Their ability to defend in a compact low block and be deadly in quick transitional opportunities has given the biggest clubs in England fits. Additionally, their ability as one of the most efficient set piece teams makes them incredibly dangerous.

Chelsea has won the expected goals battle in every match they've played this season. That sounds impressive, but when you watch them, everything on the pitch feels off and it's because of their struggles in the final third. Not having a target man or a true striker when trying to get margin against a low defensive block is a problem and I think they'll struggle here against one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League.

Additionally, since the start of the 2022-23 season, Brentford has a +12.7 xGD, while Chelsea is at +4.2.

I only have Chelsea projected at -116, so I like the value on Brentford +0.5 at +130 (BetRivers).