Add These 3 NBA Bets To Your NFL Saturday Gambling Action

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16 December 2023

Add These 3 NBA Bets To Your NFL Saturday Gambling Action

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It’s been a grind but I have a chance to even my NBA bankroll Saturday. I went 1-1 on my Friday bets with a loss on the LA Lakers -6 bet and a win with the Boston Celtics -4. My NBA betting record is 61-59-1 and my bankroll is -3.0 units (u) as a result of the juice. All I need to do to get even is sweep my three …

Odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Given Cleveland’s injuries, this is Wrong Team Favored game. The Cavaliers are missing two starters: PG Darius Garland and PF Evan Mobley. These guys are equally important. Garland is the only Cav that creates looks for teammates and Mobley is their defensive anchor.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Cleveland scores 10.6 MORE points per 100 possessions than its opponents when Garland is on the floor and Mobley’s on/off net rating is +5.9.

The Cavaliers beat the Hawks 128-105 in their 1st meeting this season in Cleveland. Atlanta shot 34.7% from the field and Mobley destroyed the Hawks. Mobley had game bests in rebounds (19), blocks (7), and defensive rating.

Furthermore, I have same criticisms of Cavs All-Star Donovan Mitchell and Hawks All-Star Trae Young. Neither play defense nor move off the ball. They are “black holes” in their offenses. So Trae and Donovan cancels each other out.

Finally, Atlanta combo guard Dejounte Murray is a good two-way player that gives the Hawks an edge in the backcourt. Atlanta C Clint Capela is an above-average defensive big and can make life difficult for Cleveland C Jarrett Allen.

Bet 1.1u on Atlanta +2.5 (-110) at PointsBet and the Hawks are playable down to a pick ’em.

I’m just going to blindly lay the points with Miami because of the zig-zag theory. The Bulls beat the Heat 124-116 Thursday in the 1st of this 2-game miniseries. Essentially, I trust Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra to make the right adjustments between games.

Chicago out-performed Miami in three of the “four factors” Thursday. The Bulls narrowly won effective field goal shooting 55.9-55.6% but won the battle of possessions (turnover and rebounding rates).

Strategically, that’s a relatively easy fix for Coach Spo. Miami has the best non-garbage time defensive rebounding rate in the NBA and rank 7th in defensive turnover rate, according to CTG.

Also, the Heat have a strength-on-weakness edge over the Bulls in drawing fouls. Miami are 6th in both offensive and defensive FT/FGA rates. Whereas Chicago is 23rd in offensive FT/FGA rate and 24th defensively.

Lastly, both teams shot a high-volume of 3-pointers Thursday. However, the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Miami hits 41.1% of its threes at home and Chicago has a 39.3% defensive 3-point shooting rate on the road.

Bet 1.1u on Miami -5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook and the Heat are playable up to -6.

This is my annual trip to the Crypto.com Arena is disgusting downtown LA to see my Knicks play and probably lose to the Clippers. The best that I can hope for is a great dinner at Guelaguetza Restaurante. Guelaguetza is a Oaxacan (Mexican) restaurant in Koreatown. The location doesn’t make any sense but the food is phenomenal.

Anywho, I’m going with the OVER 228 (-110) in Knicks-Clippers, which is playable up to 229.5. I expected to be on the Under when I 1st dug into this game. NYK is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and LAC’s defense has been elite even after trading for James Harden.

Over the past two weeks, the Knicks lead the NBA in offensive rating and have the worst defensive rating, per CTG. The Clippers are 5th in both offensive and defensive rating over that span. Again, LAC’s defense has been solid all year but their offense is finally clicking.

New York PG Jalen Brunson flipped a 50-burger on the Phoenix Suns Friday. He scored just 7 points on 2-for-12 shooting in the 1st Knicks-Clippers meeting in November. NYK beat LAC 111-97 either way. Brunson will play better this time around. He is averaging 27.2 points on 50.0% shooting in six games this month.

Honestly, I’m “galaxy-braining” the total in this game. The past two Knicks-Clippers meeting have been “rock-fights”. They went Under a 224-point total last month. LAC beat New York 106-95 in March last season, which stayed Under a 227-point total. Maybe I’m overthinking it but it feels like sportsbooks is making the Under a “fake sharp” play.