Hawks vs Cavaliers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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16 December 2023

Hawks vs Cavaliers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Think Evan Mobley's injury means big numbers for Jarrett Allen? Think again. Our NBA picks explain why the Hawks should confound the Cavaliers big man.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are in serious trouble. After a 51-win season in 2022-23 and a slew of lauded free agent signings, most expected Cleveland to pick up where they left off and contend for the top of the Eastern Conference again this season.

Instead, things have not clicked quite the same, and now serious injuries to franchise cornerstones Evan Mobley and Darius Garland have them in danger of falling out of the playoff picture altogether.

Their opponent on Saturday, December 16, the Atlanta Hawks, have similarly underperformed the NBA odds this season. Though coming off a win last night to the Toronto Raptors, they’ve won just two of their last seven games and have shown zero improvement on the defensive end.

My NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Cavaliers expect Jarrett Allen to struggle on the boards against Atlanta’s bigs and wings.

Hawks vs Cavaliers odds

Hawks vs Cavaliers predictions

Even the best teams are one injury away from a totally derailed season, but the Cleveland Cavaliers just suffered two and were not trending in the right direction even before that. A lot now falls on the shoulders of Donovan Mitchell as the lone star guard, and Jarrett Allen as the man in the middle on defense.

Unfortunately, Allen has shown signs of regression on the glass this year, which was already not one of his strong suits.

Despite playing fewer minutes with Evan Mobley and an organizational emphasis on improving on the defensive glass, Allen is worse than ever this season. While never an amazing defensive rebounder, Allen’s 17.2% rebounding rate ranks him in the bottom half of the league among all centers and is the worst mark since his rookie season.

He’s in for tough sledding on Saturday, as Clint Capela has been one of the NBA’s best rebounders over his decade-long pro career. Capela is a much better rebounder than Allen. He’s stronger, he’s bigger, and he consistently gets better position.

Capela is having a slightly down year as a defensive rebounder by his standards but is still well above average in that department overall. He’s also been one of Atlanta’s standouts on the offensive glass, where the Hawks have staked a significant part of their new identity. Capela’s 17.2% offensive rebounding rate is 98th percentile among all bigs and by far the best mark of his career per Cleaning the Glass.

The Hawks are one of the teams that have been pioneering a renewed emphasis on offensive rebounding. They use their wings to crash in from the corners to steal boards on the offensive glass from unsuspecting bigs every game, and that was a tactic that the New York Knicks used in part to dominate Allen and Mobley on the glass during the playoffs.

While there’s some drop off when Onyeka Okongwu replaces Capela, he’s still solidly above average on the boards on both ends as well.

With Mobley out, Allen is theoretically in position to grab more rebounds, but in practice, he’s not as well positioned to control the paint without Mobley’s help. Allen and the Cavaliers routinely get outmuscled by the opposition, and I’m banking on more of the same tonight.

Allen is also like many traditional centers in that he can’t play big minutes and remain productive. Despite Mobley’s absence, Allen is still averaging just 28.8 minutes this season. Few players have the conditioning and frame necessary to stand up to 35 minutes of NBA basketball at the five, and Allen is not one of the few.

Allen is averaging just 8.9 boards over his last 10 games and has only had more than 10 rebounds in three of those. With all that in mind, these rebounding Jarrett Allen odds seem entirely too high to me, making this my best bet on the board for Saturday’s tilt.

My best bet: Jarrett Allen Under 10.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)

Hawks vs Cavaliers same-game parlay

Jarrett Allen Under 10.5 rebounds

Jarrett Allen Under 1.5 blocks

Trae Young Over 3.5 threes

In keeping with the same logic behind my best bet, I’m also backing Allen Under 1.5 blocks as part of my same-game parlay for Saturday. While Allen is a solid positional player, he’s never had an elite block rate. Even his modest career numbers have sharply declined so far this season, dropping to the 56th percentile among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass.

Atlanta’s bigs also aren’t scoring through post-ups and isolations, but rather as finishers in the pick-and-roll. Both Capela and Okongwu are strong rollers, and I think Allen is unlikely to catch them at the rim for blocks. Allen’s averaging just .8 blocks over his last 10 games and has only had two or more four times in that span. But he had zero in the six other games.

Trae Young is the final leg of my SGP, after finally catching fire from downtown over the last few weeks. Young is at just 35.8% on the season, but over his last five games is up to 41.2% from downtown on a high volume. After hitting 11 threes over his last two games, I like his chances at plus money value to knock in at least four against Cleveland.

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Hawks vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis

Cleveland opened as a 1-point favorite for Saturday’s contest, which has risen as high as -2.5 at time of writing. Most of that movement came following the twin announcements that both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland would be sidelined for the foreseeable future.

While Mobley was already out and expected to miss this game against the Hawks, the severity of the jaw injury that Garland sustained against the Boston Celtics was a surprising and devastating blow. Cleveland's offense was already stretched to the breaking point even with a healthy Garland, and it’s not clear how good they can be if Donovan Mitchell is the sole offensive creator.

Cleveland’s 4-7-1 record against the spread at home this season is among the league’s worst, and a serious fall from grace after their dominant stretch at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse last year.

The Hawks for their part are just 1-3 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, and after a spirited win against the Toronto Raptors last night it’s easy to see the potential for an emotional letdown today.

The total for Hawks at Cavs opened at 240.5 and has dropped at some sportsbooks to as low as 239.5.

The Hawks’ defense has remained abysmal this season, something that many people including myself expected to improve with a full season of Quin Snyder. Young’s effort has improved on the whole, but he remains a huge liability on the perimeter, and their wings are not value-added defensive players either.

The Hawks' offense keeps them in games, so unsurprisingly they trend toward Overs this season. But even their offense has fallen off over the last two weeks, dropping to merely league average in that time. Still, the Over is 15-9 in their 24 games this year.

The Cavaliers are just the opposite, though their offense is also sustained by small guards, their defense is what wins them games. With Mobley out that formula is weaker, but their offense is also going to plummet without the ballhandling and shooting that Garland brings.