Aidan O'Brien: his top ten two-year-olds of this season

Our two-year-old racing expert Ross Millar delves deeper into the incredible juvenile firepower housed at Ballydoyle this season and names his top 10 as well as nominating a host of likely long-term targets.

I try, where possible, to insure that this column does not focus solely on the large yards every week.

However, the enormous strength in depth that Aidan O’Brien has this year is impossible to overlook, with the Group One wins of Ylang Ylang and City Of Troy at Newmarket in recent days given another indication that Ballydoyle are in for a bumper time in 2024.

And the bad news from those trying to compete with O'Brien's battalion is that he will still have unraced youngsters to unleash.

Below, I've nominated his ten leading juveniles, plus suggested the races in which they may shine.

1 CITY OF TROY

Justify x Together Forever

Timeform Rating: 125p.

Qipco 2000 Guineas odds: Evens.

Unbeaten in three starts, he has passed every test this season in brilliant style.

Those that finished behind him in the Superlative Stakes might not be a vintage bunch (although Haatem did score at Group Two level next time out), but the manner in which he won - coupled with the difficulty Ryan Moore had in pulling him up - meant it was a performance of the highest order.

Softer than ideal ground in the Dewhurst Stakes also proved to be no barrier to his brilliance. He did change legs a couple of times exiting the dip on the Rowley Mile yet he still delivered an emphatic performance while pulling a long way clear at the post.

Providing he arrives fit and healthy at Newmarket next year, the QIPCO 2000 Guineas would appear to be a formality (and yes, I did carefully consider the use of such a word). From there, it can get interesting; will connections try and land the all elusive Triple Crown, or will a more conservative and - dare I say it - 'commercial' route play out?

Personally, I’m not totally sold on the Derby trip for him. His dam was disappointing when she tried 1m4f and I am far from convinced that his half-brother Bertinelli truly stayed 12 furlongs in the King George at Ascot. I certainly don’t envisage City Of Troy excelling over 1m6f in the St Leger, but class can count for a lot.

2 HENRY LONGFELLOW

Dubai x Minding

Timeform rating: 120p.

Qipco 2000 Guineas and French 2000 Guineas odds: 5-1.

I’m prepared to concede that, due to the brilliance of his stablemate, the win part of my ante-post slip for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas is looking unlikely to collect.

However, I think he is the most likely winner of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas if City Of Troy were to be unavailable and, in any ordinary year, Henry Longfellow would be the most exciting two-year-old of the season.

Unbeaten in three starts, he has progressed with every run and that culminated in a wide-margin success in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien Stakes at the Curragh. He travelled powerfully, the signs of greenness that he’d shown when hitting the front on his previous starts were absent and I was thoroughly impressed with the performance.

His dam continued to progress throughout her career and I see no reason why he won’t do the same.

It might be that he is kept away from Newmarket and will instead be aimed at the Irish or French Guineas. I sincerely hope that’s not the case, as I firmly believe he’s the colt most capable of giving City Of Troy a test over the Guineas trip.

3 OPERA SINGER

Justify x Liscanna

Timeform rating: 114p.

Qipco 1000 Guineas odds: 11-2.

She appears to have taken her form to a different level over a mile based upon her facile and wide-margin win in the Prix Marcel Boussac and she’s now unbeaten over that distance.

Ryan Moore gave her a perfect front-running ride at ParisLongchamp, setting his own fractions and dictating the race from the front, but that should not detract from the level of performance this filly delivered. It was exceptional.

Half way through the season, I took the view that the fillies at Ballydoyle were significantly inferior to the colts, but the development of Opera Singer - and others - has certainly narrowed the gap.

The QIPCO 1000 Guineas at Newmarket would look the logical early-season target, but I’m sure that she'll stay 10 furlongs on decent ground.

4 YLANG YLANG

Frankel x Shambolic

Timeform rating: 108.

Cazoo Oaks odds: 8-1

I had her pegged as a filly that was short of top class, but her win in the bet365 Fillies' Mile - where she had to overcome trouble in running - means I've had to revise my opinion of her.

The stamina requirements necessitated by the soft ground at Newmarket showed her in a completely different light andwh ile I still couldn’t entertain her for a Guineas - even on soft ground - she certainly proved she has the required class.

The fact that she was able to reorganise herself on an undulating track like the Rowley Mile suggests that she’s blessed with a good level of balance and, if that’s the case, the unique track at Epsom for the Oaks will hold no fears.

I’m sure the Oaks picture is yet to fully take shape but, at this stage, she would be my idea of the most likely winner.

5 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ

Frankel x Sweepstake

Timeform rating: 108p.

Kameko Futurity Trophy odds: 11-10.

Given his fancy looks and his even more fancy 2.4m guineas price tag, he was always going to be a colt that commanded attention this season.

He’s yet to hit the same level of form or visual performance of either City Of Troy or Henry Longfellow, but we are still talking about an unbeaten Group Two winner.

He took a good degree of encouragement to get to the front to land the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes, and that form has since taken a knock when narrow runner-up Capulet was beaten on his next start.

His biggest juvenile assignment lies ahead as he holds an entry in the Kameko Futurity Trophy. Softer ground might provide him with the greater test of stamina that he requires and it would come as no surprise if he were to produce his best performance of the season at Doncaster.

He surely has every chance of at least equalling the level of ability shown by high-class siblings Broome and Point Lonsdale, and I actually have an inkling that he’ll exceed the level of ability they attained as three-year olds.

6 RIVER TIBER

Wootton Bassett x Transcendence

Timeform rating: 110

He had looked supremely exciting in his first three starts, winning twice over what looked an inadequate trip of five furlongs, before showing class and grit to win the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Since then his trajectory has stalled somewhat.

A two-length defeat behind Vandeek in the Prix Morny came on testing ground and off the back of a disrupted preparation so it appeared he had legitimate excuses. However, back on better ground in the Middle Park he was again only able to manage third place and again found Vandeek two lengths his superior.

He’s probably run to a consistent level on all five starts, but I have to admit to being a little disappointed that he has so far been unable to kick on from his Coventry win.

Due to the wealth of talented mile and middle-distance colts at his disposal, I can see Aidan O’Brien keeping River Tiber to the six-furlong division next season and I think that’s going to make life tough. I struggle to see where he could win a Group One at that distance, and I’d suggest that his best chance of landing another top-level prize might be in the Prix Jean Prat over seven furlongs at Deauville in July.

7 UNQUESTIONABLE

Wootton Bassett x Strawberry Lace

Timeform rating: 113

French 2000 Guineas odds: 20-1

Although he’s only managed one win, he’s another colt who has displayed a consistent level of form this season with his sole sub-par run in the Phoenix Stakes after banging his head on exiting the stalls.

He delivered his best performance when chasing home Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on his first try at seven furlongs, racing keenly after being up with the pace yet seeing out the trip well with the good ground clearly to his liking as well. He might be hard to place next season as in all reality he’s just short of top-class, but given how well he stayed at ParisLongchamp maybe he’ll be given the chance to return there for the French 2000 Guineas next year.

8 CAPULET

Justify x Wedding Vow

Timeform rating: 107

He looked in need of every yard of the trip when winning over a mile on debut at Dundalk but then took a big step forward on his first start on turf when forcing stablemate Diego Velazquez to pull out all the stops in the Champions Juvenile Stakes at the Irish Champions Festival.

I strongly fancied him on his next start in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket but he ran disappointingly, with a tendency to hang in the closing stages. It could be that the faster ground and the track were not to his liking and it’s to his credit that he did stick to his task well.

I’d be surprised if he were to prove capable of winning Group One races next season but I certainly wouldn’t rule out further progression if he were to be seen over ten furlongs, or maybe even further.

9 MATRIKA

No Nay Never x Muravka

Timeform rating: 102p

Commonwealth Cup odds: 25-1

She hasn’t been seen since July but has already shown a high level of form. Her win in the Group Two Airlie Stud Stakes was smart and she quickened up well to win going away, but in hindsight her second-place finish in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot was arguably her standout performance. She ran Porta Fortuna to a length and Donnacha O'Brien's filly has shown the form to be rock solid since, with three good performance at Group One level since including victory in the Cheveley Park Stakes.

I have no doubt that Matrika would stay seven furlongs comfortably, but given the paucity of top-class contests over that trip I’m sure she’ll be targeted towards top-class sprints, starting with the Commonwealth Cup back at Royal Ascot.

10 PEARLSANDRUBIES

No Nay Never x Diamondsandrubies

Timeform rating: 103

I thought long and hard about including this filly as for me she’s a bit of an enigma.

She started her season in great form, winning a maiden over five furlongs before running with real credit in the Chesham over seven furlongs at Royal Ascot. Her next three runs over both six and seven furlongs were disappointing and I must admit she didn’t feature on my radar for the Cheveley Park Stakes, yet she outran her odds of 33-1 by staying on well to finish second.

It’s possible that the return to fast ground suited her well and she might be one to bear in mind for mid-summer when the ground is at its quickest.