Juvenile Watch: Two big-priced fancies for next year's Guineas
Ross Millar shares his expert analysis on some of the leading Juveniles we have seen this season plus reveals a number of youngsters to add to your Racing TV Tracker. Our Juvenile expert also suggests a couple of ante-post bets are large odds for next year's QIPCO 1000 Guineas.
With the Qatar Goodwood Festival in the rear-view mirror, and the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York just around the corner, it seemed like an ideal time to give a half-term report on the juvenile class of 2023.
THE COLTS
A strong group this season, particularly amongst those that have form over six and seven furlongs, with aspirations for staying a mile as a three-year old. The sprint types are, by comparison, slightly lacking in depth, but still have a few talented types amongst them.
Below are a select few that have grabbed my attention so far:
City Of Troy (Justify) – has looked the consummate professional in his two starts so far. His performance in the Superlative Stakes was exceptional as he travelled powerfully and quickened up well, while even more crucially it took his jockey, Ryan Moore, an age to pull him up. However, for all of his obvious ability, his ante-post price for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby are scandalously short.
I can see reason to question whether he’ll stay the Derby trip of 12 furlongs. His full-brother, Bertinelli, faded at the finish on his only try over the trip in the King George V Stakes, while his dam, Together Forever, failed to stay in both the English and Irish Oaks.
It’s also pertinent to point out that his trainer has recently suggested that trying him on dirt at the Breeders’ Cup was under consideration. If that experiment were to yield a positive result, it could mean that he doesn’t feature in Europe at all next season.
Henry Longfellow (Dubawi) – made a striking debut at the Curragh, impressing me with his turn of foot when quickly stamping his authority on the race. He was green when hitting the front, but will improve with further experience.
The form of that victory has already received a boost with runner-up, Mythology, again finishing second on his next start in the Group Three Prix Francois Boutin in France.
City Of Troy has achieved more, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Henry Longfellow ended the season as the highest rated colt.
Diego Velazquez (Frankel) – a price tag of £2.5 million is always going to be hard to live up to. It is, though, a case of ‘so far, so good’ for this striking colt. He looked very green throughout his debut, leaving the stalls in untidy fashion as well as coming under-pressure earlier than might have been expected.
However, he ran out a very cosy winner and, as a half-brother to Broome and Point Lonsdale, he is another that can only improve for both time and distance.
River Tiber (Wootton Bassett) – I really like this colt as he strikes me as being tough and uncomplicated. The form of his Coventry Stakes win has been well advertised with Bucanero Fuerte winning both the Railway Stakes and the Phoenix Stakes on his next two starts.
I’m also convinced that River Tiber has yet to be presented with his optimal conditions. His victories have all been gained thanks to strong finishing efforts, and I’m sure a trip of seven furlongs will play more to his strengths.
However, the presence at Ballydoyle of the three aforementioned colts might mean that sprint trips, and races such as the Commonwealth Cup, become his aim.
Bucanero Fuerte (Wootton Bassett) – has barely missed a beat so far this season, with his Coventry defeat the only blemish on a four-race record. He’s highly progressive and his win in the Phoenix Stakes, where he was forced to cut out his own pace, was very smart.
If meeting River Tiber over six furlongs, I’d expect him to now reverse the form from Royal Ascot. At this moment, he’d be my pick for next year’s Commonwealth Cup, though I fully expect his connections to explore the possibility that he might stay the Guineas distance.
THE FILLIES
The fillies division lacks a little depth but has still produced some talented performers this season.
Ylang Ylang (Frankel) – Two odds-on wins demonstrate that she’s yet to really be tested, but both wins have come from front-running rides which demonstrates her sound attitude to racing.
Her dam, Shambolic, stayed ten furlongs well, while the stamina-laden attributes of Frankel produce are apparent for all to see.
She currently heads the 2024 Oaks market, and deservedly so. Tougher tests await, but she looks well equipped to deal with them.
Matrika (No Nay Never) – A winner of two of her three starts including a Group Two win in the Airlie Stud Stakes on her latest start.
Her only defeat came in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot where, having helped force the early pace, she was unable to match the closing speed of Porta Fortuna – who challenged wider on the track.
The seven-furlong trip of the Moyglare Stud Stakes can unlock further improvement.
Porta Fortuna (Caravaggio) – Couldn’t quite handle Bucanero Fuerte in the Phoenix Stakes, but still emerged with huge credit. She wasn’t aided by being forced to race without cover in the early part of the race and was in isolation up the stands’ side rail in the closing stages. She has plenty of speed and a potent turn of foot.
I’d oppose her if she were to tackle the Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs but would be fully behind her if she were to turn up in the Cheveley Park over six furlongs.
Physically, she looks to be a stereotypical two-year-old, so be prepared for the possibility that others may improve past her next year.
TWO OVER-PRICED GUINEAS CONTENDERS
Fallen Angel (Too Darn Hot) – I was surprised that more wasn’t made of her rout in the Sweet Solera on Saturday; I was tremendously taken by her.
She raced powerfully through the early stages, quickened up well and powered away through the finish. The fact she is still available at 33-1 for next year’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas surprises me.
Visually, her performance at Newmarket suggests she’ll stay a mile, while her dam, Agnes Stewart, won the group two May Hill over a mile as a two-year old. She has proven versatility with regards to ground having previously won on fast ground and she ticks plenty of boxes. I’ve happily added her to my ante-post bets.
Shuwari (New Bay) – looked tough and resolute when beating Fallen Angel in a Listed contest at Sandown. As a daughter of New Bay, she certainly enjoyed some give underfoot (though her maiden win came on good to firm).
I loved how powerfully she travelled through the race, and she was comfortably the last of the bridle. Her dam, Lady Pimpernel, was a classy performer winning a Listed contest at Salisbury over ten furlongs for Henry Candy before transferring to the US where she bagged a Group Three over an extended mile.
I can only assume that it’s the relative inexperience of her young trainer that means she is priced up at a generous looking 25-1 for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas. I expect her to be very competitive in races like the Rockfel and the Fillies’ Mile, and there I am comfortable adding her to the ante-post portfolio at generous double-figure odds.
HORSES TO FOLLOW
Murashah (Night Of Thunder) - Charlie Hills’ colt did well to win on debut having looked noticeably green and while the form of that win has taken a few knocks,t he’s clearly talented.
Cerulean Bay (New Bay) - Don’t let the fact that his two wins have been gained at smaller tracks up North put you off. He’s tough and uncomplicated plus will improve for an extra furlong.
Native American (Sioux Nation) - The substance of his win at York on debut is questionable, but the style of that win is not. He oozes talent and has been transferred to the ownership of new enterprise Wathnan Racing since that debut.
Ancient Wisdom (Dubawi) - Tasted defeat for the first time behind Rosallion at Ascot where a steady early pace favoured those with a turn of foot, which is not his forte. He can show improved form when offered a strong pace over further.
A horse with a huge frame and stride, he is one to remember next year, regardless of how he finishes this season.
Baheer (Mehmas) – Has already been gelded and while his temperament is questionable, most notably around the stalls, his talent is not, and he was not favoured by soft ground last time.
As a gelding, options are limited, but I expect him to serve it up in five-furlong sprints.
Carla’s Way (Starspangledbanner) – Was sent off favourite for the Albany Stakes where, having raced to exuberantly in the early stages, she faded into eighth. She also looked outpaced in the mid-part of that race and looks in need of seven furlongs, though this trip will obviously require her to learn to settle better and race more efficiently.
She’s a work in progress, but when she gets it together, she can take high rank amongst the fillies.
Serene Seraph (Blue Point) – Caught the eye when finishing third behind Carla’s Way on debut at Doncaster.
As is typical for a Richard Hannon newcomer, she was sympathetically handled in the closing stages yet still finished with real zest. She does hold a Lowther entry, but a run of the mill novice would look a more logical target.
