Alabama vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Covers

04 March 2023

Alabama vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Alabama has been a force on both sides of the floor this season and will look to play spoiler on Texas A&M's Senior Day. Although the Tide might win, our college basketball picks are eyeing a certain Aggies' sniper to catch fire from deep.

The top two teams in the Southeastern Conference will battle on Saturday afternoon, as Texas A&M plays host to Alabama on Senior Day. While it will have no bearing on the final standings for the SEC Tournament — as Alabama has already clinched the title with nobody threatening A&M for second — it could have a significant impact on the NCAA Tournament resume for both squads.

Bama is looking to avoid needing overtime, as it’s had to do in two of its last three games, while picking up a ninth win in 10 games. Meanwhile, the Aggies have finished the season strong, and hope to secure another big win.

Can A&M put a big win on its card ahead of the Big Dance, or will the Tide secure a 17-1 conference record? We discuss that and more in our Alabama vs Texas A&M college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, March 4.

Alabama vs Texas A&M best odds

Alabama vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

The mantra “live by the three, die by the three” is one that Alabama has seemingly lived by under head coach Nate Oats. The Tide rank 11th nationally in attempted 3-point shots made per game, and their 29.2 attempts from downtown are the fourth-most in college basketball per contest.

They’re not giving many up, either. They rank 21st in made threes per game with just 5.7 allowed, and only 107 teams allow fewer attempts from behind the arc. Their opponent on Saturday doesn’t take many, ranking 291st in both attempts and makes per game.

So why are we looking at a Texas A&M player to make at least three long-range baskets in today’s game? Alabama’s last three opponents have taken a combined 51 shots from downtown, and have connected on 26 of those attempts. But it’s not so much how many it's given up, rather, it’s who has been making them.

Arkansas guard Davonte Davis leads the team in attempted 3-point shots this season, and he connected on three of four attempts in its three-point loss to Alabama. Meechie Johnson leads South Carolina in shots from behind the arc this season, and in its two-point defeat to Bama, he buried four of nine attempts.

Enter Wade Taylor IV. Texas A&M’s leading 3-point shooter on the season is a volume shooter from outside, having taken 16 attempts in his last two games and is averaging 7.1 attempts over his last 10. In that span, he’s made at least three on five different occasions, and has 11 games this year with three or more makes from downtown.

The Tide are defending the 3-point line well as a team this season, but these past few games that hasn’t been the case. And while a win over Texas A&M would be great for their resume, it’s not a must-win game. There’s nothing on the line but pride and seeing on Saturday, and it’s Senior Day for the Aggies — which means the building will have just that bit more energy.

Given Taylor’s propensity to let fly, and Alabama's lax defense from beyond the arc of late, I love getting Over 2.5 made 3-pointers at such a solid price. Look for Texas A&M’s leading scorer to hit a trio of threes in a game that should be an up-and-down contest.

My best bet: Wade Taylor Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+145 at DraftKings)

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Alabama vs Texas A&M spread analysis

Alabama’s only loss in the last nine games was a nine-point loss at Tennessee the day after Valentine’s Day. The Tide put up points in bunches, ranking in the Top 5 in points per game while leading the nation in rebounds per contest. That’s a big reason why they’re 26-4, and are in strong consideration for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. But they’ve covered the spread just once in their last five games.

Texas A&M has won seven of its last eight games, and are slightly favored at home in this contest. The Aggies have covered in four straight games at home and in five of their last six against teams with a .600 record or better..

The Covers Consensus is solidly behind the Aggies to pull off an upset in terms of rankings, but not in terms of the betting favorite. While 56% of the picks are on Texas A&M, a staggering 82% of the team money has come in on the Aggies to cover the 1.5 points. That would buck the trends of the underdog covering in each of the last six meetings, and the road team winning five of those games.

Alabama vs Texas A&M Over/Under analysis

The total of 150.5 is a bit intriguing. Alabama ranks third in points per game and fifth in scoring margin, and it gets to the line often. It ranks in the Top 10 in free throws made and attempted per contest, and is quite efficient on the offensive end. Each of its last four games have gone Over the projected total for this game.

That said, the Under has hit in five of the Tide's last seven on the road against teams with a winning home record. Also, the last 10 games for them against teams with a winning record have seen the Under come through eight times.

Texas A&M’s defensive numbers haven’t been the best this year, but the Aggies like to slow the game down and get physical. They’re also outstanding at getting to the rim, ranking third in attempts and first in makes from the charity stripe. Their games also tend to be low-scoring affairs, with each of their last six games at home against .600 teams or better on the road seeing the Under hit.

The Covers Consensus echoes the difficulty in picking a total side on this one. The team money leaders are split evenly down the middle, while 55% are on the Over. Personally, I would stay away from this total, especially since a tight whistle could see tons of points scored with the clock stopped.