ALCS Game 3: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions
The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers play Game 3 of the best-of-7 American League Championship Series Wednesday. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Rangersodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALCS: Rangers lead 2-0
The Astros are in an ugly spot after losing 2 games at home. Houston now needs to win 4 of the next 5 games to make it back to the World Series.
In the postseason, the Astros are just 3-3, including 1-3 in 4 games as a favorite. The Over is 4-2 in 6 playoff games.
The Rangers are perfect (7-for-7 in the postseason. Oddly enough, Texas has played just once at home in these playoffs, a 7-1 win in Game 3 of the ALDS to eliminate the Baltimore Orioles as a favorite (-134) as the Over (7.5) came in.
Texas is favored Wednesday, and it is just the 2nd time in the postseason it has been favored. The Under holds a slight 4-3 edge versus the Over for the Rangers in 7 postseason games.
Astros at Rangers projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Javier made 31 starts in the regular season, going 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He had a 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 over 162 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 9 K in 9-1 road win vs. the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS last Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 5-3, 5.17 ERA (94 IP, 54 ER), 18 HR in 18 starts
- Making his 4th career postseason start and 16th overall appearance
Scherzer was 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA across 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Rangers. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 152 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road win vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Sept. 12
- 2023 home splits: 8-4, 4.31 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 21 HR in 15 starts in the regular season
- Making his 23rd career postseason start and 28th overall appearance
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Astros at Rangers odds
FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
Astros at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Astros 3
The RANGERS (-130) welcome back Scherzer for his 1st start in 5 weeks. He was left off the roster for the ALDS, as he was still recovering from a teres major strain, which is the muscle connecting the arm to the shoulder blade. After throwing on the side, and having successful bullpen sessions, the team welcomes him back.
The Astros (+110) have been a hot mess in this series, and going to a raucous Arlington to face Scherzer and the red-hot Rangers is a tall order. And Javier has a dismal 5.17 ERA on the road this season, which doesn't exactly make him a sure-fire stopper to help turn things around.
The RANGERS -1.5 (+150) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. It's a bit of unchartered territory, as Texas has been favored just once in the postseason. It easily covered the run line in that outing, and it is 7-0 on the run line in these playoffs, winning 6 times outright as an underdog, too.
The Astros +1.5 (-182) are 2-0 in 2 games as an underdog, both against the run line as outright winners. Still, Javier has struggled on the road, and the Rangers are a buzzsaw right now.
The UNDER 9.5 (-122) is worth a look, and might be the best play on the board.
The Under has cashed in 2 of the past 3 games for the Astros, while also going 2-1 in the past 3 games for the Rangers.
The wild-card here is Scherzer. If he pitches to his capabilities, he'll hold the Astros down. But there could be some rust, too. Javier has also struggled on the road, so this is a little bit of a contrarian play. But 9.5 is also a big number, too, especially in the playoffs.
