ALCS Game 5, NLCS Game 4 Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for October 20, 2023
Normally, I’m not much of a Taijuan Walker believer. However, I think the way this game will be set up, he’ll rise to the occasion. His FIP vs. righties is 4.20 compared to a 4.80 FIP against lefties, and his xFIP and FIP are the lowest when you let him go the first time through an order. He will face two capable lefties and then mostly right-handed bats.
On the Arizona side, we most likely will get some less-than-quality arms. He’ll be brought in to slow down the lefties, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go 2-3 innings. However, I doubt he lasts that long, as Phillies batters have a .452 opponent average against him with a 1.162 OPS in 33 PA, which includes a three-run outburst in game two.
Following Mantiply will be Slade Cecconi (4.67 xERA) and Ryne Nelson (5.30 xERA). We already saw what Nelson did against these Phillies, allowing three runs in less than an inning in game two. Cecconi threw a scoreless inning; maybe he could be slightly more effective.
Regardless, I give the Phillies the edge in the rotation early, and I have to believe they bounce back offensively here. With Arizona, it’s been a theme of coming up short with the bats, while I think the Phillies had a bad game. I was disappointed with the performance, but at the same time, I think they needed this.
They were on such a roll, and it looked like they rolled over and expected to win. They didn’t have the same aggressive nature, jumping on fastballs early. Credit to Brandon Pfaadt for dominating, but the level of competition they’ll face today is far below that. They needed a reminder that you can’t get comfortable in the playoffs. This is a prove-it game to show that performance was a fluke. I believe that the Phillies make the proper adjustments today.
They also have the better back-end, especially with Alvarado only throwing 15 pitches. The only pitcher not available will probably be Kimbrel, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. Sewald and Ginkle both threw, but they should be available. The Phillies have the better pitching throughout, and I don’t think you can keep those bats cold for long.
