NLCS Game 4 Pick for MLB Playoffs (Friday, October 20)

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 4 Odds

The Arizona Diamondbacks notched a crucial win in Game 3 on a walk-off hit from a red-hot Ketel Marte. Arizona only has three starting pitchers on the roster, and since Zac Gallen will likely start in Game 5, the D'backs will start Joe Mantiply. After him, Arizona could use a combination of Slade Cecconi, Ryne Nelson and other bullpen arms.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies will throw Cristopher Sánchez, who has yet to throw in the postseason and could have a tight leash.

The Phillies don't have the home crowd behind them, but the Diamondbacks are obviously stretched with pitching. All bullpen hands will be on deck, so the over should in play in this game.

Sánchez is a good pitcher, there's no doubt about it. The 26-year-old had a 3.44 ERA and a 3.77 xERA over 99 1/3 innings this season. He forces groundballs at a 57.7% rate and strikes out 24.2% of hitters. Those numbers are impressive and he'll likely find himself back in Philadelphia's rotation next season. However, the postseason is another animal. Sánchez probably won't pitch past the fifth inning, and the Phillies have been a bit shaky in relief.

Offensively, the Phillies had a 123 wRC+ and a .832 OPS off of lefties from August 1 to the end of the regular season. They also carried a 10.2% walk rate and a 24.5% strikeout rate in that timeframe. In the playoffs, Philadelphia has six batters with a wRC+ over 100. Mantiply induces plenty of groundballs, but the Phillies will only see him for one or two innings. Arizona’s bullpen hasn't been dominant, so Philadelphia should produce some offense.

In the playoffs, the Phillies' bullpen only three arms with an xFIP below 4.00: Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and José Alvarado. Collectively, the Phillies have a 1.09 ERA against a 4.61 xFIP. They also have a 10.8% walk rate and a 21.6% strikeout rate.

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Mantiply had a 4.62 ERA against a 3.82 xERA. His Barrel Rate was 9.5%, his Average Exit Velocity was 87.7 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate was 35.8%. However, it's highly unlikely he pitches deep into this game.

The D'backs had an 89 wRC+ and a .699 OPS off of lefties this season. That said, they only struck 16.5% of the time and walked 8.9% of the time. In the playoffs, they have five bats with a wRC+ above 100. Arizona should match up well with Sánchez.

The D'backs bullpen has a 4.26 xFIP, a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate. Philadelphia should hit them hard.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks

Betting Pick & Prediction

Sánchez was impressive in the regular season, but the Phillies could pull him early if things aren't going well. With that being the case, both lineups have done plenty of damage in the playoffs, and neither bullpen has strong metrics. Look for the over to hit in this game and play it to 10 (-110).