Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Betting Prediction
The biggest of the upcoming UFC fights this weekend is the massive rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC women’s flyweight championship on Mexican Independence Day, headlining the historic Noche UFC event at T-Mobile Arena.
Can Grasso defend her belt after shocking the world with a submission win over Shevchenko earlier this year?
Read more for the complete betting analysis and official Grasso vs Shevchenko prediction ahead of making your picks on this weekend’s betting slate.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Information
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date and Time: September 16, 2023. 10 PM ET
How to Watch: ESPN+
Last Fight Record
Both of these women are coming off their first meeting in March at UFC 285. Grasso defeated Shevchenko by submitting her via face crank in the 4th round. Grasso won the first round on all of the judges’ scorecards as well. Grasso was a +650 betting underdog as the lines closed in their first bout.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Betting Analysis
Alexa Grasso
Grasso is a Mexican mixed martial artist with a professional record of 16-3 and has four TKO/KO wins and two submissions at the age of 30. She’s listed at 5’5” and has a 66” reach while fighting primarily out of the orthodox stance, even though she fought southpaw quite a bit in the first fight against Shevchenko.
Grasso averages 4.88 significant strikes landed, and 4.07 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon and has a solid 59% striking defense. She also holds a 61% takedown defense while averaging just 0.38 takedowns landed per 15 minutes of work in the UFC.
Valentina Shevchenko
Shevchenko is considered one of the best martial artists to ever compete in the sport of MMA and has a professional record of 23-4 with eight TKO/KO wins and seven submissions.
She was born in Kyrgyzstan, but she has trained around the world and is one of the most cultured MMA fighters to ever compete in the UFC.
“The Bullet” has the exact same body measurements as Grasso, but it looked like she was potentially the smaller fighter in the cage in their first meeting.
She fights primarily out of the southpaw stance and has efficient striking stats, averaging 3.29 significant strikes landed and 1.99 significant strikes absorbed per minute in the octagon. Shevchenko also averages 2.57 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
Updates
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Betting Preview
Before we can make a proper Grasso vs Shevchenko prediction, let’s look at the betting lines for this championship bout.
According to UFC odds, Shevchenko is only the -180 betting favorite this time around, and Grasso is coming in at +155 at the end of fight week. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds, with the over being slightly favored. Even after a finish in the first meeting of these two, this rematch has -150 odds to make it to a decision on the scorecards.
From a technical standpoint, the outcome of this fight will depend on whether or not Shevchenko makes the proper adjustments. In their first meeting, Shevchenko won two rounds before the 4th started, but she had more trouble than most of her recent fights.
Grasso came out in a southpaw stance, and that took away from the patented body kick she usually throws out her own southpaw stance. The Muay Thai style of Shevchenko was challenged by an aggressive Grasso who wasn’t afraid to let her hands go early in their last fight.
The champion will most likely have a similar game plan, but this time with even more confidence. This fight solely lays on whether or not the best version of Shevchenko shows up in front of potentially the first crowd that wasn’t mostly behind her in her career.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Betting Prediction
Making UFC picks is already so difficult, and you should look at this fight like it has 50/50 odds. With all things considered, the official Grasso vs Shevchenko prediction is that “The Bullet” will get her title back.
It’s the first time in years that Shevchenko has been the hunter in the fight, and that’s going to bring out the best of her. Grasso is still a pound-for-pound great, but Shevchenko is going to make the adjustments she needs to get the job done.
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