Analysis: Merveilleux could post a mild surprise in Queen's Plate

Giventhe successful history of fillies in the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbineon Saturday, it is no disadvantage to choose one in the historic race.This edition of the Queen’s Plate features two fillies: Merveilleux andCurlin’s Voyage, with the latter filly the Woodbine Oaks winner on this courselast month.

From a betting perspective, Merveilleux is the more interesting play ata higher price. With sharp works and a good prep race in tow, she is capable ofmoving forward at 10 furlongs and upsetting her more popular stablemate Clayton.

Merveilleux ran a closing third in the Woodbine Oaks, losing by 2 1/4 lengths toCurlin’s Voyage. However, the effort is better than it looks on the running line as she dealt with traffic.

Watch Merveilleux on the far turn.

As Curlin’s Voyage makes the first move on the inside, Merveilleux followsalong on the inside and needs to wait behind Justleaveitalone.

Instead of slipping inside, Merveilleux goes around Justleaveitalone. At thetop of the stretch, Justleaveitalone comes out slightly once Merveilleux runsnext to her. Merveilleux does move forward anyway and makes up ground on Curlin’sVoyage and Afleet Katherine in second. But the final thrust comes too late andshe ends up third.

After the wire, Merveilleux gallops out past AfleetKatherine and Curlin’s Voyage. Merveilleux and Afleet Katherine go past theturn, while Curlin’s Voyage stops sooner and well behind those two fillies. Merveilleux’s long gallop out is a positive sign forhandling 1 1/4 miles.

Prior to the Woodbine Oaks, Merveilleux also ran a closing fourth by 1 3/4 lengthsin the Selene Stakes, took a local allowance win in June and lost to Curlin’sVoyage by a head after an exciting stretch battle in the Ontario Lassie Stakes back inDecember, earning a 107 on TimeformUS in the latter race.

Merveilleux’s worktab is also fast, with a four-furlong bullet in 47 flat on Sept.5 and a five-furlong workout in 58 2/5 on Aug. 29, the second fastest out of 79works.

Also on Sept. 5, her stablemate Clayton shows a 48 2/5 four-furlong workout, over a second slower than Merveilleux.

Merveilleux figures to move forward with more distance and offers value atanything close to her 10-1 morning line. She is the main choice.

Clayton does not need an explanation for most handicappers.

Obviously, he owns ability with three wins in four starts, including thePlate Trial Stakes. The two prior wins before the Plate Trial were impressive visually.

Last November, Clayton broke his maiden locally by 7 1/2 lengths. On synthetic,destroying a field by seven lengths is not easy because of the nature of thesurface.

On July 18, Clayton won a local optional claimer by only three lengths. But thewin is more stunning upon watching the replay, as 8 1/4 lengths separatedthe runner-up Elusive Knight and third-place finisher Finalist. As I have stated numeroustimes, strung-out margins signal a quality race, especially onsynthetic or turf.

Then, Clayton took the Plate Trial by only half a length last month. It felt like Clayton was about to blow by Halo Again and DottedLine. But Clayton fails to switch leads in this effort and does only enough to win.

Yet, Clayton gallops out nicely along with Dotted Line.

Despite Clayton workingto capture the Plate Trial, he still won over two nice horses in Halo Again and Dotted Line. Perhaps he justforgot to switch leads in the heat of the battle. Note that he did switch leads inhis July 18 win.

Clayton is a contender, and probably the one Merveilleux needs to mow down. Expecthis presence in the stretch run, whether or not he wins.

For a third option, Dotted Line is another one to consider.

Dotted Line set the pace in the Plate Trial with pressure from Halo Again,before Clayton passed both in the stretch run and Dotted Line weakened slightlyto third.

His true running style is hard to pinpoint. In the Marine Stakes (G3), DottedLine made a decent move from sixth to complete the trifecta behind Shirl’sSpeight. Prior to that, he stalked the pace in the seven-furlong QueenstonStakes before fading to fifth. That poor effort came off a 213-day layoff.

Perhaps Dotted Line runs better as a stalker or mid-pack type in longer routes. He shows a career-high 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his third in theMarine, higher thanClayton’s 108 in the optional claimer or Merveilleux’s 107 in the Ontario Lassie.

For what it's worth, Pace Projector projects Dotted Line in seventh early. Maybethe algorithm is a bit off, but he figures to settle at least a few lengths off theleader this time. He could surprise bettors who wrote him off for fading to thirdin the Plate Trial.

Merveilleux is the one who gives the best impression of a stamina-orientedrouter, though, and she is working fast. If room opens in the stretch run, she can upset the field ata nice price.

In multi-race wagers, Merveilleux, Clayton and Dotted Line are the three horsesto use. If looking to save money, then cut off Dotted Line or use him as a Conly.

Vertically, Merveilleux is high enough odds for a win or place wager.