Analytics and oddsmakers still picking Oilers over Vegas for Stanley Cup

Despite having a quiet trade deadline, the Edmonton Oilers are still ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights when it comes to Stanley Cup odds.

According to MoneyPuck, the Oilers are the fifth most likely team to win it all this year at 8.5% while the Golden Knights, who added three impact players at the deadline, sit in 11th at 4.1%.

The Oilers opted to tinker with their roster this past week rather than add big names. GM Ken Holland swung deals for Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick, and Troy Stecher. All those players make the Oilers a tougher team to play against but don’t necessarily address their biggest weaknesses on RW or RD.

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights went big-game hunting, adding players like Noah Hanifin, Tomas Hertl, and Anthony Mantha to their roster. These bold acquisitions had many putting Vegas down as the new favourites to defend their title as Stanley Cup champs, but analytics are saying otherwise.

MoneyPuck isn’t the only model that thinks this way. Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at The Athletic has the Oilers at a 13% chance to win the cup while the Golden Knights are at 7%.

If analytical odds aren’t your thing, the betting odds also like the Oilers. Fanduel Sportsbook has Edmonton at +750 to capture their sixth championship while Vegas is slightly behind them at +900.

BetMGM is also high on the Oilers, having them tied as the favourite to win it all this season at +800 alongside the Florida Panthers. That is much higher than the 11th-ranked Golden Knights, who are currently sitting at +1500 on their site.

Instead of looking purely at the deadline adds for each team, there seems to be more emphasis on how each team has performed of late. The Oilers have hit a bit of a speed-bump, but have managed to salvage a 2-1-1 record on their latest road trip. They remain 10 points behind the Vancouver Canucks for top spot in the Pacific Division.

The Golden Knights have been struggling hard lately, with just a single win in their last five games. They are six points back of the Oilers. These two teams will face off against each other one more time this season, in Edmonton on April 10.