Analyzing the horses in the Kentucky Derby field: Favorites, contenders, pretenders and more notes

The Athletic

05 May 2023

Analyzing the horses in the Kentucky Derby field: Favorites, contenders, pretenders and more notes

The First Saturday in May. The Run for the Roses. America’s Most Famous Horse Race. The Most Exciting Two Minutes In Sports. A race that’s almost 150 years old is bound to pick up a nickname or two along the way, along with millions of casual fans who will pay attention to horse racing this Saturday and this Saturday only.

NBC will broadcast Kentucky Derby programming from noon to 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Churchill Downs will run nine races in that period on an undercard full of stakes races, but if you’re interested only in the Big Event, post time is 6:57 p.m. You can stream the derby on Peacock and NBCSports.com

Forte is the 3-1 morning line favorite, but a favorite hasn’t won the race since 2018. Trainer Brad Cox has four horses entered in the race, Todd Pletcher three. The most expensive horse in the race sold for $1.3 million; the least expensive for a mere $25,000 (Confidence Game). It looks like the rain originally forecast for the area isn’t going to be a factor, but better to handicap for the wet unnecessarily than rue that you hadn’t.

In post-position order, here’s your look at the field for Kentucky Derby 149. Record follows the following format: Starts-Firsts-Seconds-Thirds. Odds are the morning line from Churchill Downs.

1 – Hit Show

Odds: 30-1

Jockey: Manuel FrancoTrainer: Brad H. Cox

Record: 5-3-1-0

The first of Cox’s quartet is owned by the same people who owned Maximum Security, disqualified from winning the 2019 Derby because of interference. Off three wins in five starts and a nose loss to longshot Lord Miles (also entered in the Derby) in the Wood Memorial, this gray/roan colt ranks highly on speed figures, and his off-the-pace running style won’t be compromised by this post position, as he and jockey Manuel Franco can take back and hope for clear running room later in the race.

2 – Verifying

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Tyler GaffalioneTrainer: Brad H. Cox

Record: 6-2-2-0

Cox entrant No. 2 dumped his rider during morning training on Thursday, causing brief speculation about whether the horse would be scratched, but he reportedly checked out fine and is scheduled to run. A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify that cost $775,000 as a yearling, he does his best running on the lead, which is not always a winning strategy in this race, and this post position isn’t going to leave Gaffalione with many options other than to gun him.

3 – Two Phil’s

Odds: 12-1

Jockey: Jareth LoveberryTrainer: Larry Rivelli

Record: 8-4-1-1

He’s definitely on my ticket in the unlikely event of a wet track, given his 3 1/2-length win over a sloppy Churchill Downs surface last October. This modestly-bred colt is a consistent runner, with a record of 4-1-1 from eight starts, and though he was a pacesetting winner earlier in his career, he seems to have developed the versatility to stalk, then make a run. I’m intrigued and will likely include him on my tickets.

4 – Confidence Game

Odds: 20-1

Jockey: James GrahamTrainer: J. Keith Desormeaux

Record: 7-3-1-2

In my early handicapping, I didn’t have this $25,000 purchase on my radar at all, and his speed figures lag behind his rivals here, but the more I looked, the more I liked. He’s a closer breaking from a solid post position, and while he’ll need a good trip to get the job done, he doesn’t come from so far back that traffic trouble is a given. His sire Candy Ride is a known stamina influence. Since stepping up into stakes races, he was a distant third in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds in January and a length winner in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs in February – that over a sloppy track. He hasn’t raced since the end of February, and while that gives me serious pause, I’ll use him at least underneath in exacta and triples.

5 – Tapit Trice

Odds: 5-1

Jockey: Luis SaezTrainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Record: 5-4-0-1

Five starts, four wins. He cost $1.3 million. Tapit sires him, and while Tapit has never gotten a Derby winner, he has fathered four winners of the Belmont Stakes. There’s no doubt that this gray/roan colt is bred for this. He’s won at four different tracks, over both fast and muddy tracks; and is trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, one of three Pletcher runners here. Tapit Trice likes to go to the front, so Saez will have to manage that early speed over the Derby distance. There’s nothing not to like.

6 – Kingsbarns

Odds: 12-1

Jockey: José L. OrtizTrainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Record: 3-3-0-0

The second of Pletcher’s entrants is another pricy purchase, this one $800,000, and this one is trying to pull a Justify: to win the Kentucky Derby off just three races, all of them this year, all of them wins. Similar to that Triple Crown winner, he went the maiden race→allowance race→stakes race route, dispatching his rivals with ease every time. He has one of the best jockeys in the country on his back, and it seems unlikely that Ortiz would take a mount that he thinks has no shot. The big question: can his talent outweigh his inexperience?

7 – Reincarnate

Odds: 50-1

Jockey: John R. VelazquezTrainer: Tim Yakteen

Record: 7-2-3-2

Following the disqualification of Medina Spirit in this race in 2021, trainer Bob Baffert has been banned from running horses at Churchill Downs, so this horse was transferred from Baffert’s barn to that of his former assistant Tim Yakteen in February, from which he raced twice and earned enough Derby points to qualify for the race. He’s been competitive in all seven of his races (2-3-2), and his jockey has won three renewals of this race. He’s another that likes to race on the lead, leaving Velazquez with some decisions to make as they break from the gate.

8 – Mage

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Javier CastellanoTrainer: Gustavo Delgado

Record: 3-1-1-0

Another runner with only three races on his résumé, but this one has only one win in his maiden race in January. His speed figures make him competitive, and he likes to come off the pace, both pluses; his trainer lacks experience in races at this level (though his jockey definitely doesn’t), but I’m shying away from this one.

9 – Skinner

Odds: 20-1

Jockey: Juan J. HernándezTrainer: John A. Shirreffs

Record: 6-1-0-3

Given the success of the stallion Curlin in producing graded stakes runners with stamina, you have to look hard at any horse sired by him in a race like this. Still…with just one win from six starts, and that one coming in a race filled with other horses who had never won, I’m wary. He has two decent finishes in graded stakes races (both thirds), and the horse that won both of those races, Practical Move, was scratched from the Derby on Thursday afternoon.

10 – Practical Move

Scratched due to high temperature

11 – Disarm

Odds: 30-1

Jockey: Joel RosarioTrainer: Steven M. Asmussen

Record: 5-1-2-2

Gun Runner is still early in his stallion career, but given his own impressive performances in races at the American classic distance (1 1/4 miles) and the success of his runners so far, Disarm was bred for races like this. He’s another, though, that’s won just once, and despite competitive finishes in his prep races, I’m not sure he’s ready for a stage as big as this one just yet. Gun Runner himself got better as he got older, which may also be the case here.

12 – Jace’s Road

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Florent GerouxTrainer: Brad H. Cox

Record: 6-2-0-2

The third from the Cox barn and the first of three from owner Albaugh Family Stables brings an inconsistent record to the Derby, with two wins and two thirds in six races, with two off-the-board finishes coming in races over off tracks, so if the track does come up wet, he’s an immediate toss. While huge longshots are known to spring upsets in Louisville, this particular longshot will run without my money on him.

13 – Sun Thunder

Odds: 30-1

Jockey: Brian Hernández Jr.Trainer: Ken McPeek

Record: 6-1-1-1

Another big longshot, another horse yet to win a race beyond his maiden. His sire Into Mischief has topped all North American stallions by progeny earnings since 2019, but nothing else in his past performances suggests that he can compete here.

14 – Angel of Empire

Odds: 8-1

Jockey: Flavien PratTrainer: Brad H. Cox

Record: 6-4-1-0

The last of Cox’s four starters brings a closing running style, the ability to run on both fast and wet tracks, and four wins from six races to Louisville. Also owned by Albaugh Family Stables, he won both of his preps for this race, and according to the morning line, he has the best chance of bringing the ascendant Cox his first Derby winner that’s not a result of disqualification. (In 2021, Cox’s Mandaloun finished second and was elevated to first when Medina Spirit was disqualified for a medication overage.)

15 – Forte

Odds: 3-1

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Record: 7-6-0-0

I was at Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby, and it sure looked as though Forte’s four-race win streak would end. He broke from a far outside post and was forced to run wide for much of the race; he dropped so far back that he disappeared from the TV screen, and though he began advancing as he hit the far turn, it appeared that he was going to run out of both gas and racetrack. And then he hit the eighth pole, and with one of the most visually impressive surges I’ve seen, he hit the front to win by a length. Pletcher was unhappy with his wide draw in Florida and no doubt would have preferred to draw closer here, but Forte has shown that he can overcome adversity, and it would be foolish to overlook him.

16 – Raise Cain

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Gerardo CorralesTrainer: Ben Colebrook

Record: 7-2-1-1

He earned his way into the race with a win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, and his trainer is not a familiar face to those who follow only the big races. Colebrook is an easy guy to root for, and it would be great to see him at least get a piece here, but it’s hard to see how he fits here. That Gotham win did come over a muddy track, so if it rains, give him another look.

17 – Derma Sotogake

Odds: 10-1

Jockey: Christophe LemaireTrainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Record: 8-4-0-2

Is he the buzz horse or the instant toss? Depends whom you ask. He was an impressive winner of the UAE Derby in Dubai, and he’s run consistently well in his native Japan. With a number of international winners, including in the U.S., the Japanese racing and breeding program is justifiably getting a lot of attention, but I don’t see this horse getting the country’s first Derby win here. His sire did his best running at distances of a mile or less, and though he’s been at Churchill long enough to have overcome any challenges resulting from shipping here, the trip–both from Japan and the mile and a quarter–is a big ask.

18 – Rocket Can

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Junior AlvaradoTrainer: William I. Mott

Record:7-2-2-0

Another runner sired by Into Mischief, who already has had two progeny win the Derby (one via DQ), and this one is trained by a guy who doesn’t take a shot just to take a shot. Like Cox, Mott’s only Derby win came via disqualification, when Maximum Security came down and Country House moved up, and this lifelong, well-respected horseman no doubt would like to add another Derby to his already prodigious record…but likely not enough to run a horse where he doesn’t’ belong. A muddy track moves him up, and ignore Bill Mott at your peril.

19 – Lord Miles

Scratched on Thursday

Earlier this week, two horses trained by Saffie Joseph, the trainer of Lord Miles, died at Churchill Downs and were characterized by track officials as “unexplained sudden deaths.” As a result, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission ordered that all of Joseph’s horses scheduled to run in Louisville this weekend be scratched, including Lord Miles. Churchill Downs has also banned Joseph from running or stabling at its racetracks.

20 – Continuar

Scratched on Thursday

21 – Cyclone Mischief

Odds: 30-1

Jockey: TBDTrainer: Dale L. Romans

Record: 7-2-0-3

He drew into the race on Thursday afternoon following the scratch of Practical Move. His trainer grew up in Louisville who would like nothing better than to win his hometown race. Romans has brought a number of competitive horses to the first Saturday in May; I’m not sure that this is one of them. His performances in stakes races have been less than impressive, and while Romans is easy to root for, and this colt is by Into Mischief, it seems likely that if the Albaugh family make it to the winner’s circle, it will be with one of their other horses.

22 – Mandarin Hero

Jockey: Kazushi KimuraTrainer: Terunobu Fujita

Record: 6-4-2-0

With the scratch of Lord Miles, a third horse based in Japan draws into the race. Unlike Derma Soto Gake and Continuar, Mandarin Hero was bred in Kentucky and relocated to Japan by his owners. After winning his four races and finishing second by a neck, Mandarin Hero shipped to California to prep for the Derby, finishing second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move, who was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Thursday afternoon. He runs equally well on wet and dry surfaces, and his closing style at Santa Anita would serve him well here.