Argentina vs Samoa Prediction, Odds & Picks

Despite losing their 2023 Rugby World Cup opener to England, Argentina are still well-placed to reach the quarterfinals at the Rugby World Cup for the fifth time. But it will require winning their final three Pool D matches, starting with today’s tilt with Samoa (11:45 pm ET, Peacock).

Entering the tournament, England appeared to be in a vulnerable spot, especially with captain and goalkicker Owen Farrell suspended for the first two games. But George Ford’s boot pushed them past Argentina in Marseille, accounting for all 27 England points in a 27-10 win at Stade Velodrome.

Losing a winnable game is always a missed opportunity, but the Pumas can still reach the final eight if they take care of business against Samoa, Chile, and Japan.

The equation is simple for Samoa (and Japan, also), who last reached the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals in 1995. If they defeat Argentina today in Saint-Etienne and Japan next Thursday in Toulouse, they will break that drought.

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Argentina vs Samoa Odds

Odds are via Bovada.

Spread

• Argentina -12.5 (+100)
• Samoa +12.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Argentina -550
• Samoa +410
• Draw +3000

Over/Under

• Over 49.5 (-105)
• Under 49.5 (-115)

Can Samoa Pull the Upset?

Samoa have never won more than two matches at a Rugby World Cup, so a tall, never-before-done task is ahead.

They opened their tournament participation with a 43-10 win over Chile last Saturday in Bordeaux, achieving a result that was about as expected.

Samoa don’t get a crack at the higher-level rugby nations very often, but they were quite impressive in their most recent opportunity. In their final pre-tournament tune-up, they pushed Ireland all the way in a 17-13 loss in Bayonne.

It certainly wasn’t a full-strength Ireland side, but it was an impressive performance, nonetheless. Samoa led 10-7 at halftime and extended that lead to 13-7 early in the second half, but two Ireland tries averted a major upset.

For what it’s worth, Samoa also have won three of four all-time meetings with Argentina. In 1991 and 1995, they defeated the Pumas in pool play on the way to reaching the quarters, while Argentina turned the tables in pool play in 1999 to help themselves reach the quarters for the first time.

The most recent meeting between the two teams came in December 2005, a 28-12 win for Samoa in Buenos Aires to wrap up that year’s Autumn Internationals.

Argentina vs Samoa Head-to-Head Results

• 1991 Rugby World Cup: Samoa 35-12 Argentina
• 1995 Rugby World Cup: Samoa 32-26 Argentina
• 1999 Rugby World Cup: Argentina 32-16 Samoa
• 2005 Autumn Internationals: Argentina 12-28 Samoa

Since that time, Argentina have reached the Rugby World Cup semifinals twice and joined the Rugby Championship, and in Saint-Etienne, they can show that the gap between the two sides is larger than the one place between them in the current world rankings.

Argentina vs Samoa Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Argentina to win

Picks: Argentina/Samoa over 49.5 (-105 at Bovada) & Samoa team total over 17.5 points (+100 at Bovada)

I think that the Pumas will be able to get the victory that they need to keep their quest for the quarterfinals on track, but I’m not touching the spread. Instead, my focus here is on two total plays.

The total has gone over 49.5 in 11 of Argentina’s last 16 games, while they have allowed fewer than 18 points in only five of their last 30 games. Most of those games have been against better opposition than they will face in this matchup, but I think Samoa can put some points on the scoreboard even in a losing effort.

Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup

While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.

In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.