Arizona State vs Arizona Odds, Picks, Predictions

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11 March 2023

Arizona State vs Arizona Odds, Picks, Predictions

Arizona State has been on a run in the Pac-12 Tournament, but that should end tonight against a formidable Arizona foe that has the depth to weather Kerr Kriisa's injury, as our college basketball picks explain.

As much as there can be a Cinderella for a No. 6 seed, the Arizona State Sun Devils (22-11) have been the surprise of the Pac-12 conference tournament thus far.

After knocking off Oregon State in the first round and upsetting USC in the second round, the Sun Devils may need another win Friday night to notch an NCAA Tournament bid.

The No. 2 seed Arizona Wildcats (26-6) await, a fearsome competitor that views March as the season for cutting down nets.

college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. Arizona on March 10 to find out.

Arizona State vs Arizona best odds

Arizona State vs Arizona picks and predictions

No. 2 seed Arizona advanced past Stanford in the second round, although it wasn’t necessarily an easy night. The Cardinal battled tough and gave the Wildcats everything they could handle, repeatedly answering the bell when the ‘Zona landed a heavy punch. The superior side ultimately rolled on for a 95-84 victory.

One important note from that game is that point guard Kerr Kriisa injured his shoulder/collarbone area on his shooting side. It did not look pretty, as he played the rest of the game but I did not see him attempt a single field goal attempt while playing with heavy tape. When shooting free throws at the end of the game, he air-balled the first attempt before making the second one — albeit left-handed.

KenPom ranks Arizona as the 11th-best team in the nation. The Wildcats check in at sixth in offensive efficiency and 52nd in defensive efficiency. Current projections list them as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and it seems unlikely they slip from that spot, although anything is possible this time of year.

Arizona State looked sleepy and sloppy in an opening-round win over Oregon State, 63-57. The Sun Devils then looked the best they have all season in a 77-72 upset of USC last night. They shot the lights out from downtown, connecting on 14 of 32 (44%) 3-point attempts while grabbing 14 offensive rebounds and forcing 14 turnovers.

Arizona State checks in at 60th overall in KenPom, ranking 123rd in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils dropped the first matchup 69-60 on their home court but won the second matchup 89-88 on a half-court buzzer beater by lead guard Desmond Cambridge known affectionately as the “McKale Mary”. I do not expect Sun Devils to shoot 54% from the field and 39% from deep on Friday night, so a repeat of that game is not in my forecast.

Arizona State is an extremely streaky team. While the Sun Devils have gotten hot from the field before en route to a victory over Arizona in the regular season and a second-round upset of USC, they are a poor shooting team overall. They rank outside the Top 300 in both field-goal percentage (41.8% — 315th nationally) and 3-point percentage (31.3% — 329th nationally) while converting just 69.5% of their free throw attempts.

The Sun Devils’ method of crashing the offensive glass worked wonders against a poor defensive rebounding team in USC, but one can hardly forecast the same level of success against a gigantic Arizona frontcourt led by Azuolas Tubelis (19.9 points, 9.2 rebounds) and Oumar Ballo (13.9 points, 8.6 rebounds). The Wildcats are proficient at cleaning the glass, ranking fourth nationally in defensive rebounds per game (29.2).

While Kriisa’s health is certainly a question mark, Tommy Lloyd has a terrific backup point to turn to in Kylan Boswell. He’s been the most impressive 17-year-old in the country and Lloyd has proven that he trusts him in big spots, so I don’t expect any dropoff if Boswell is given more playing time.

After a hot start to the season, the Sun Devils have cooled down mightily and are just 8-14 ATS in conference play. This program hasn’t achieved much under Bobby Hurley and I’m betting that this year’s team won’t be the one to surprise. This roster is now playing its third game in three nights and visibly tired toward the end of the USC game, letting the Trojans slowly creep back into the game.

Give me Arizona to cover the spread and get revenge.

My best bet: Arizona -7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

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Arizona State vs Arizona spread analysis

The spread opened Arizona -7 but has moved to -7.5 or -8 across the board. The Wildcats caught some steam in the market a night ago and it's possible this line continues to rise, so I’d only play Arizona up to -9.5.

Arizona State started conference play with a 6-1 record and looked to be among the league’s best teams. The Sun Devils haven’t looked like a true contender since then and have been vastly overpriced in the market, going just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. This is a mercurial team that struggles to find consistency, so I’m hesitant to buy that last night’s hot shooting will continue. They’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win.

Arizona, meanwhile, typically plays well against tough competition. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

While Stanford did hang tight with Arizona in the second round, I’m not holding that against the Wildcats too much. The Cardinal have been a Top-5 3-point shooting team since the start of February and are a different team than they were at the start of conference play. Jerod Haase had his team playing well in Vegas for the second straight year in a row, but Arizona weathered every run that Stanford tried to make.

The Wildcats still managed to cover the spread in the first round despite Stanford shooting the lights out and Kriisa playing through an injury that left him unable to shoot. While Kriisa will still likely be hampered in this spot, Lloyd has a day to prepare for fallback options. Arizona State is a much worse shooting team than Stanford, so following the Cardinal’s game plan is not necessarily an option.

Arizona State vs Arizona Over/Under analysis

Be sure to shop around if playing the total as the number ranges from 155 to 156.5 as of Friday morning.

That’s a high total for sure, but it’s understandable considering these teams combined for a whopping 177 points in the last matchup. Arizona games tend to be high-scoring in general as the Wildcats average 83.1 ppg on offense while allowing 71.9 ppg on defense.

I believe that the last meeting has provided a little value on the Under in this spot as folks are expecting a repeat of that performance. I’m not so sure that’s possible unless Arizona State has entered a realm of shooting proficiency heretofore unseen with any semblance of consistency. The Sun Devils have been one of the worst shooting teams in the nation from all levels of the court this season.

Arizona’s offense typically works best when it can work inside-out starting with its two fabulous big men scorers. Arizona State has bodies to throw in the paint like Warren Washington, Alonzo Gaffney, and Duke Brennan. The Sun Devils are an elite team at defending the rim, ranking second in near-proximity defense per Haslametrics.

It’s scary taking an Under in Arizona games, but I think there’s some overcorrection in this total due to the last matchup and the fact that all four second-round Pac-12 Tournament games hit the Over.