Arizona State vs UCLA Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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02 March 2023

Arizona State vs UCLA Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

UCLA is in a tricky schedule spot tonight for more than one reason, and they face a hungry Arizona State squad. Our expert college hoops picks think the Sun Devils will be stubborn foes tonight.

No. 4 UCLA (25-4) continues its quest toward a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back home games against the Arizona schools.

The Bruins wrapped up the Pac-12 regular season championship with a narrow 60-56 win over Colorado on Sunday.

Next up is pesky Arizona State (20-9). Bobby Hurley’s squad is coming off a 2-0 week, including a buzzer-beating win over rival Arizona. The Sun Devils look for a massive win to increase their chances of going dancing.

college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs UCLA on Thursday, March 2.

Arizona State vs UCLA best odds

Arizona State vs UCLA picks and predictions

UCLA secured its claim as the outright 2022-23 Pac-12 regular season champs with a close 60-56 battle in Boulder on Sunday. Mick Cronin continues to work wonders in Westwood, leading UCLA up to No. 2 in KenPom and a chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins will need a strong finish against Arizona State and Arizona to secure a one-seed.

The Bruins have been dominant in Pac-12 play. A stingy defense surrendering just 59.7 ppg leads the way, but Cronin also has this team doing the small things well. UCLA leads the league in areas like offensive rebounding and turnover margin — which Cronin notes is a sign that this team has continued to improve in a number of areas en route to its pristine 25-4 record.

In a media appearance this week, Cronin said that he’s paranoid about his team’s emotional gas tank. While this week means a lot to the storied seniors on this team like Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell, it’s natural for there to be a bit of a letdown in this spot after clinching the regular season championship.

Thursday night’s game comes against an Arizona State team coming off the “McKale Mary” — a half-court buzzer beater by Desmond Cambridge to defeat Arizona 89-88.

Currently, Bracket Matrix — a database made up of the leading bracketologists — lists Arizona State as making the tournament in 65 of 107 experts’ brackets.

There’s motivation for both teams. UCLA wants to win its last two to secure a No. 1 seed, while Arizona State could use a win to greatly increase its odds of making March Madness. While the Bruins still have a seeding incentive to win out, covering an inflated -12 spread in this matchup is not consequential.

This line feels high in a potential letdown spot for the Bruins. With looming giant Arizona on deck for the weekend, this is also a potential look-ahead spot. All in all, I don’t fancy this situational spot for Cronin’s side.

Arizona State certainly isn’t perfect, but it’s a pesky team that has a way of staying in games. The Sun Devils are 2-0 ATS as a dog of more than seven points this season, most recently defeating Arizona outright as a +12.5 underdog.

This line opened Arizona State +13 but has already moved down a point. I believe that the early money is on the correct side, as this spread feels too inflated. I’d play the Sun Devils down to +10.

My best bet: Arizona State +12 (-110 at BetRivers)

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Arizona State vs UCLA spread analysis

UCLA has been pretty profitable this season at 16-12-1 ATS. The Bruins have been good at home too, with a 9-6 ATS mark at Pauley Pavilion.

One thing to note is that they haven’t been great at covering spreads lately against winning teams, going just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning straight-up record.

The Bruins are elite analytically, ranking second overall in KenPom — 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency.

After a strong 6-1 start in conference play, Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils faltered by winning just two of their next eight games. Back-to-back wins over Utah and Arizona come at just the right time as a late-season NCAA Tournament push.

Arizona State checks in at 63rd overall in KenPom, ranking 116th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

This handicap is all about the situation to me. This is a potential letdown spot for UCLA as it returns home after a two-game road trip to the Rockies in which it secured the regular season crown. It’s also a look-ahead spot with Arizona (24-5) on deck for the final home game of the regular season.

Arizona State vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total is set between 133.5 and 134.5 depending on the location, so be sure to shop around for the best line using our college basketball odds tool to track line movement.

Both teams’ identity is derived from the ability to play solid defense. UCLA ranks second in defensive efficiency (KenPom) and sixth in scoring defense (59.7 ppg), while Arizona State checks in at 32nd in defensive efficiency and 94th in scoring defense (67.2 ppg).

Arizona State struggles to get the ball in the basket, ranking a moribund 302nd in field goal shooting (42.2%) and 317th in three-point shooting (31.6%). This is cause for concern against a Bruins defense ranking 26th in field goal defense (40.5%) and 31st in three-point defense (30.7%).

UCLA’s offense is still elite, but it’s not quite on the same level as the defense. The Bruins will face a stingy Arizona State defense that ranks 11th nationally in field goal defense (39.3%).

Riding UCLA Unders has been an extremely profitable angle during conference play. The Bruins are 12-6 to the Under against Pac-12 opponents. The Under has cashed in six of their last eight home games.

I’m not in a hurry to play the Over in UCLA Pac-12 games until given a reason to reconsider. Unders have been profitable for Cronin’s side for quite a while now.