Arsenal and Napoli are running away with their title races; Charlie Davies and the MLK 'Embrace' in Boston

It's Mike Goodman here with the Golazo Starting XI newsletter after a weekend of massive derbies. Later this week we'll be looking at a Milan Derby being played in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. women's national team kicking off their World Cup calendar year in New Zealand and Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo likely facing off for the last time. But for this Monday, let's focus on the title races. 

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Games on Paramount+ (all times U.S./Eastern):

• Serie A: Empoli vs. Sampdoria, Monday, 2:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
• Coppa Italia: Napoli vs. Cremonese, Tuesday, 3 p.m. (Paramount+)  

Notable games (all times U.S./Eastern):

• FA Cup: Wolves vs. Liverpool, Tuesday, 2:45 p.m.
• Friendly: New Zealand vs. USWNT, Tuesday, 10 p.m. 

⚽  The Forward Line

Picture-perfect weekend for Napoli and Arsenal

Are the title races in England and Italy over? It's a provocative question, but not an entirely outlandish one. We're just about halfway through the club season and Arsenal and Napoli are coming off dream weekends where everything went their way. Let's take a look at where the two teams stand. 

Arsenal: Don't look now, but the Gunners sit eight points clear of Manchester City with 18 games played. Caesars Sportsbook has them at -125 to win the title and nerd website FiveThirtyEight has them as 55% to win the title. This would have been unthinkable a few months ago, but everything is going right for Mikel Arteta's side. They breezed past Tottenham, 2-0, in the North London Derby over the weekend while Man City lost 2-1 to Manchester United in their derby. The underlying numbers suggest City and Arsenal are pretty evenly matched. The goal difference is exactly the same at +28 and while City's underlying expected goals numbers are slightly better than Arsenal's, they've also had the benefit of getting two more penalties awarded and one fewer conceded. All in all, these are two evenly matched teams. And for two evenly matched teams, it's going to be exceptionally hard for the team trailing by eight points to make up that ground.

Napoli: The story is even rosier for the league leaders in Italy. Coming into the weekend, Juventus were their closest rival and Napoli obliterated them, 5-1. AC Milan, their next closest rival, had to come back from a two-goal deficit just to draw against newly promoted Lecce. So now, through 18 matches, Napoli sit nine points clear. Napoli, however, are in an even more powerful position than Arsenal. Arsenal have a team chasing them in City who are roughly as good as them. In Italy, nobody is holding a candle to them. Napoli's goal difference is +30, only fifth-place Lazio are even half as good as that at +16. The underlying xG is also impressive. Their xG difference is +19 and the only team remotely close to that number is Roma at +18. After that, it's fourth place Inter Milan at +14 then AC Milan at just under 12. So it's no surprise that Caesars Sportsbook has Napoli at -400 to win the title and FiveThirtyEight gives them a whopping 80% chance to win the title. When you've got clearly the best stats in the league AND you're on top, that's living life right.

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Charlie Davies and 'The Embrace' in Boston

And on this Martin Luther King Jr. Day, we give a tip of the hat to former USMNT star Charlie Davies who contributed to the "Embrace" sculpture in Boston Common honoring MLK and Coretta Scott King, which was unveiled on Friday.

• Davies: "It was emotional and inspirational to be on hand for The Embrace unveiling. The Memorial will bring people from all over the word to the city of Boston to spark conversation around love, inclusion and peace. I was fortunate to be the Director of The 'Quin Impact Fund overseeing engagement and gifts to various nonprofits across Boston. I had the opportunity to direct gifts towards Embrace Boston and support their work. Conceptual Artist, Hank Willis Thomas and MASS Design Group brought this masterpiece to the city to prompt a systemic impact and bring the community together. It was an honor to be involved in this historic week."

• Premier League title winner:
  �� THE PICK: Arsenal (-125) --I spent a good chunk of this newsletter telling you why Arsenal are in a greaat position to win the title. So let's put our money where our mouth is. Arsenal's next four Premier League matches include showdowns against Manchester United and Manchester City, so either way we'll know a lot more a month from now. .
• Champions League title winner:
  �� THE PICK: Napoli (+1100) -- Everybody is having a hard time believing in Napoli, including the oddsmakers -- and to be honest, myself. But who am I to turn down +1100? Napoli have spent the first half of the season playing like one of the best teams in Europe. They've got a great draw against Frankfurt when the knockout stages return on (and remember you can watch that match on Feb. 21 on Paramount+). I'm going to grab this price before it gets shorter. .