Corner Picks: Napoli's Scudetto win is a special accomplishment, but will lead to loss vs. Fiorentina

cbssports.com

05 May 2023

Corner Picks: Napoli's Scudetto win is a special accomplishment, but will lead to loss vs. Fiorentina

It's easy to dismiss sports as nothing more than a distraction from the real world and our real lives. They're no different than the latest superhero movie or viral video on TikTok. At times I feel the very same way.

However, no movie or viral video has ever allowed me to feel a connection to millions of people who live thousands of miles away from me or have been dead for 75 years. Sports can. When I began following club soccer following the 2010 World Cup, I made the conscious decision to support a Serie A club to "get in touch" with my Italian roots. The English Premier League was far more accessible at the time (though still primitive compared to the options we now have in the United States), so I chose an English side too.

But I wanted to honor my Italian heritage, so I chose Napoli. My great-grandfather grew up in a small mountain town north of Naples called Fornelli. He was adopted by a family named Turco, but when he immigrated to the United States in the early 1900s, the same thing happened to him that happened to so many other immigrants. Either a mix-up in paperwork or general apathy led to him being named Fornelli. Roughly 75 years and multiple children and grandchildren later, I showed up. Over a century after my great-grandfather reached America, I chose Napoli to honor him and my family.

It's one of the best decisions I've ever made, and this week brought a tear to my eye. I will never know what it's like to be a Neapolitan who has spent their life immersed in Napoli, both the city and the soccer team (which are sometimes hard to separate from one another). Still, I couldn't help but think of my great-grandfather on Thursday when Napoli clinched their first scudetto since 1990. I watched the videos of the celebration from Naples and wished I could be there among the people.

Without Napoli, I don't know that I'd still care about soccer, at least not at the club level. The English club I chose was Aston Villa, and while they were easier to follow from the US for a while, they were relegated from the Premier League for a few seasons. If I were lucky, I'd see one match a month. Now, that wasn't much more than I could see Napoli at the time (those of you who started following Serie A in the Paramount+ era have no idea how good you have it), but there was one vital difference.

Napoli were good and fun to watch. While Aston Villa struggled for survival, playing boring matches, Napoli were entertainers. They played an attractive style, and they won. At least they won enough to compete for league titles, cups and Champions League berths. Players like Edinson Cavani, Marek Hamsik, Ezequiel Lavezzi, Gonzalo Higuain, Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne, Jose Callejon and Kalidou Koulibaly all came and went. All were spectacular in their ways, and when it was time to move on, no club in Italy was better at replacing its stars and keeping the train going.

That's why I was sad to see players like Insigne, Mertens and Koulibaly move on last summer, but while the rest of the world believed Napoli would suffer because of it, I knew better. I knew the replacements would be capable. I knew Italian soccer loved nothing more than writing off southern Italian teams.

I didn't know Napoli would win the scudetto, but I knew they would compete. I knew that any team with Victor Osimhen would be a force in Serie A and that any team managed by Luciano Spalletti would have a tactical advantage over its opponent nearly every week.

Napoli have been the most consistently entertaining team I've ever supported in any sport. It's the one team I could always count on to make me smile and bring joy. Even the painful moments -- and there have been plenty -- never stung too long because I knew this club would make amends for it quickly.

The Scudetto is just the basil leaves on top of an already delicious Neapolitan pizza.

Napoli vs. Fiorentina

All right, that's enough waxing poetic about Napoli. Now it's time to be the ruthless bettors we are and look to profit off their victory by fading them this weekend against Fiorentina. Listen, there's no math involved in this play. It's strictly common sense. Napoli won the scudetto Thursday night in Udine, and the party began. The players were guzzling champagne in the locker room. They then returned to Naples, where the entire city was celebrating their victory.

How much sleep and rest do you think Napoli will get between then and Sunday when they're scheduled to play Fiorentina? Also, what kind of lineup do you think Napoli will field? Sure, some regulars may be forced into action, but I'm betting on a lot of reserves getting time against Fiorentina. Hurry up and bet the Violi before the market realizes what's happening. The Pick: Fiorentina (+320)

Featured Game| Napoli vs. Fiorentina

Roma vs. Inter Milan

My initial instinct was to take the contrarian approach of taking Roma as a home dog for the second week in a row, but I thought better of it. Not because it didn't work out last week, but for the reasons why it didn't work out. Roma look exhausted. They're dealing with a myriad of injuries, and Jose Mourinho is complaining about the depth of his squad. The grind of competing for a top-four spot in Serie A while simultaneously competing in the Europa League has taken a toll on this roster, and it's showing in their performances.

Enter Inter Milan. Like Roma, Inter are still in a fight for a top-four finish. Unlike Roma, they're not dying at an alarming rate. Inter come into the match playing some of their best soccer of the season. It's won four straight matches, including wins over Juventus in the Coppa Italia and a 3-1 win over Lazio. While Inter's been a better home team than road team this season, they havent allowed an xG over 1 in any of their last six matches. That defensive solidity is why I'm so confident they'll go into the Stadio Olimpico and take all three points this weekend. The Pick: Inter (+135)

Featured Game| Roma vs. Inter

Newcastle United vs. Arsenal

While I long believed Arsenal would lose their hold on first place in the Premier League, I am surprised by how quickly things fell apart. You see, I didn't think Arsenal were bad or overperforming. I simply believed Manchester City were too strong and would grind out another Premier League title. Arsenal forgetting how to defend only sped up the process.

Yes, make no mistake, Arsenal's defensive issues are the core of the problem. While they held Chelsea to only 0.8 xG in their 3-1 win (Arsenal's first win in five matches), Chelsea arae a zombie and not to be taken seriously. I don't think Arsenal fixed anything as much as Chelsea are incompetent. Newcastle have been flying of late, scoring 13 goals in their last three matches. Sure, the competition plays a role in that, but this team is filled with confidence, playing at home with something to prove. Whether or not that's enough to get the win, I don't know. However, this is a matchup that looks ripe for goals. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-150)

Featured Game| Newcastle United vs. Arsenal