Ashes Odds: Our England v Australia Third Test Tips, Predictions, Odds and Bets

England v Australia Ashes Third Test Predictions:

When: Thursday, July 6 - Monday, July 10, 11am (BST)

Where: Headingley Cricket Ground, Leeds

Best Odds: England 8/5, Draw 15/4, Australia 5/4

The dust is yet to settle amongst the fallout of a controversial second Test at Lord’s that otherwise overshadowed what was one of the all-time great fourth innings batting performances from English captain Ben Stokes.

Despite his dogged efforts, England are now in the unenviable position of needing to become the first team since Don Bradman’s Australia in 1936/37 to convert a 0-2 deficit into a series victory.

That looks unlikely according to betting sites, with a draw at any stage along the way enough for the Aussies to retain the Ashes yet again. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Average first innings score at Headingley (last 10 Tests): 270
• England record in Leeds (this century): W11 D1 L7
• Australia record in Leeds (this century): W1 L3 
• Most 50+ scores at Headingley (current England squad): 6 - Joe Root
• Stuart Broad averages 4.5 wickets per Test in Leeds
• Josh Hazlewood has dismissed Ben Duckett in three of four innings (3/45) in this series

Back At Home, Back Amongst The Runs?

It goes without saying that Jonny Bairstow has had a bit of a stinker since returning to international cricket from his broken leg. 

A first innings 78 in Edgbaston was followed up with three scores of 20 or fewer runs, the most recent of which drew global attention.

He can be forgiven for being a little rusty in an Ashes series after so long away from the game, and back at his beloved home ground where he averages an outstanding 63 with two tons and two fifties from seven Tests, it wouldn’t surprise to see him shape up and ride the crest of a raucous and adoring Yorkshire crowd.

The ghosts of Headingley 2019 were beginning to haunt the Australians when Stokes went on his fifth day rampage, but their 91-run first innings lead - and some questionable batting from the home side - saw them lunge closer to an unassailable position.

Headingley has been kind to the English in recent years, with four consecutive Test wins in Leeds including three occasions in which they bowled first and dismissed their visiting opponents for under 200. 

Ollie Pope and Nathan Lyon are out of the rest of the series, while the quick turnaround between Tests has forced some rotation amongst some ageing fast bowling units. 

Two of Bairstow’s dismissals in this series were at the hands of the absent Lyon, while three of his four came about from some careless errors. 

With the series on the line, if England’s batters have learned anything from the last fortnight, it’s that a more sensible and pragmatic approach is needed.

One needs to go back only to last year where Bairstow headed to Leeds in the third match of the Test series against New Zealand and compiled a blistering 162 from 157 balls. 

Granted, he was in much better form during that season, but with four of Bairstow’s 12 Test tons coming in the third game of a series )and his likely promotion to number six ahead of Moeen Ali) 8/1 on cricket betting sites looks looks an excellent price for ‘YJB’ to top the England scorecard in the first innings.

Tip: Jonny Bairstow England Top 1st Inns Run Scorer - 8/1 with Ladbrokes

Todd To Do What His Mentor Couldn’t?

From the moment Nathan Lyon arrived at Lord’s on crutches the morning after sustaining what was described as a “serious” calf strain, Todd Murphy’s participation in his first Ashes became imminent and immediate.

It was a devastating denouement to Lyon's 100th consecutive Test, and perhaps worst of all for the 'GOAT', it denies him the opportunity to avenge a horrendous Headingley outing in 2019 in which he took just two wickets and infamously fumbled a potential run-out of Jack Leach.

The 22-year-old Victorian finger-spinner, who Lyon said is welcome to ring him in Australia at any time, made one of the most difficult Test debuts imaginable - a tour of India - but came away with 14 wickets from six innings at an excellent average of 25. 

That included dismissing Virat Kohli four times (4/89) and Ravindra Jadeja on three occasions (3/31), which is quite an impressive rap sheet heading into one’s second series.

The pitches won’t be in his favour this time, but England’s batters have already shown a tendency in the first two Tests to get a little big-headed against spin and are unlikely to treat Murphy with any greater respect. 

He demonstrated some excellent accuracy and variation (particularly from around the wicket) and should relish an opposition heavy with left-handers and aggressive batters not afraid to take him on. 

He should have an excellent opportunity to get amongst the wickets, and 19/20 on multiple wicket haul is an interesting price for you to use any Ashes betting offers you may have on.

Tip: Todd Murphy Over 1.5 First Innings Wickets - 1.95 with Bet365

Khawaja to ‘Karry’ On Where He Left Off

He may be the complete antithesis of England's revolutionary approach to Test cricket, but it's hard to mount a case for anyone other than Usman Khawaja in theAshes betting odds to be Player of the Series after accumulating 300 runs from his four starts.

That's despite Australia's top order facing the most difficult weather and pitch conditions in both games, for it seemed the operator of the English weather machine summoned the clouds every time he and David Warner strapped on the pads.

He's been the least perturbed of the Aussie batters by any sideways movement, has handled the new ball under leaden skies with distinction; and having now registered Australia's top score in six of their last 11 innings, remains crucial to his team's fortunes.

Khawaja now averages 38 against Stuart Broad, 56 against Ollie Robinson, 35 against Mark Wood and 178 off the bowling of Moeen Ali in Tests. 

The one man who he could comeunstuck against is Chris Woakes, who took his wicket three times in 2019 at 14s, but we all know how far "Uzzy" has come since then in a mental and technical capacity. 

Betting apps understandably keep Steve Smith very safe in their top scorer markets, which opens up some value around him. Those keen to surf the Khawaja wave can get as good as 5.5 with Unibet.

Tip: Usman Khawaja Australia Top 1st Inns Run Scorer - 5.5 with Unibet

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