Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

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28 August 2023

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

These two teams traded blows over four games in Houston last week and now move to another hitter-friendly ballpark at Fenway. Our betting picks expect both offenses to take their hacks against Cristian Javier and Chris Sale in a high-scoring game.

The Boston Red Sox will try to make up ground in the wild-card race tonight as they host the Houston Astros at Fenway Park.

The Astros tied with the Rangers for second place in the AL West, but are still holding on to the final WC spot in the junior circuit. The Red Sox are 4.5 games out of the final playoff spot.

Both teams flexed their offensive muscles in last week’s series in Houston, and today’s pitching matchup doesn’t seem likely to change that trend. We’ll break it all down in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Red Sox on August 28.

Astros vs Red Sox odds

Astros vs Red Sox predictions

The Astros hosted the Red Sox for a four-game series that began last Monday. The end result was a 2-2 split, something that didn’t help either team in their respective efforts to make the playoffs.

The most notable trend in that series was the offensive explosion enjoyed by both teams. All four games ended with at least 10 total runs scored. The Astros averaged 5.5 runs per game, while the Red Sox went off for 7.75 runs per contest.

While those numbers are high, it’s no surprise that both teams were able to hit. Boston is averaging 4.99 runs per game this season, while Houston clocks in at an almost identical 4.98 clip. These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and we can expect them to play like it as they both fight for playoff positions down the stretch.

Both teams are poised to score even more runs in the upcoming series. Fenway Park is one of the best hitter’s ballparks in the majors, trailing only Coors Field in pure run-scoring potential. Between the Green Monster in left field and the nooks and crannies in right, batters hit tons of doubles and triples in Boston, which is a positive for sluggers and slap hitters alike.

Then there’s the pitching matchup on Monday. The Astros will trot out Cristian Javier, who has struggled to go more than five innings in starts this year and is having the worst year of his MLB career. He pitched against the Red Sox last Monday in Houston, giving up three runs on seven hits in just five innings, though that was enough to get the win.

Boston will counter with Chris Sale, in what will be his fourth start since returning from shoulder inflammation. Sale has been solid in most of his short outings since that return but gave up four runs on six hits over five innings to the Astros in their game last Wednesday.

Anyone can see this matchup, these lineups, and this stadium and know runs should be expected tonight. MLB odds have reacted, posting a relatively high total, with most sites offering 10 runs as the main line.

But that’s not enough to dissuade me. Based on what we saw last week, these teams might be near or above that total by the time both starters are out of the game, let alone when we see the final score. I’m taking the Over.

My best bet: Over 10 (-110 at FanDuel)

Astros vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Over 10

Kyle Tucker to record an RBI

Rafael Devers to record an RBI

I’m expecting a whole lot of runs tonight, and that makes it easy to put together a value-packed same-game parlay. First, we’ll start by taking the Over, as that’s my best overall bet for the game.

With that many runs being scored, we can expect a couple of the heavy hitters in each lineup to knock in runs. That’s why I’m picking both Kyle Tucker and Rafael Devers to get at least one RBI in tonight’s game. There’s a very strong correlation between those bets and the Over, yet we’re still able to get nearly +500 on the SGP overall.

And don't fret about the handedness matchup with lefty-swinging Tucker facing southpaw Sale as the Astros outfielder is hitting .325 with 11 of his 26 home runs vs. LHP this season.

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Astros vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox opened tonight’s game as a -119 favorite. Books have moved that number further in Boston’s direction, and as of noon on Monday, you won’t find better than Red Sox -130 at any site. If you want to bet on Houston, the Astros are available at +115 at many books.

While the Astros have an impressive record, they’re also the defending World Series champions. As such, they’ve only met expectations for bettors, and are dead even on the moneyline this year. The Red Sox are up nearly five units on the moneyline in 2023.

I think this is going to be a wild game, and that has me somewhat hesitant to play the moneyline or run line. However, if I had to back someone, it would be the Astros. Houston is the better team and has the deeper bullpen, which could be decisive in a game where neither starter is likely to go long. Since we can get plus money on the road team, the Astros are the better moneyline play.

The total on this game started at 9.5. While some books still offer that number with heavy juice on the Over, the consensus total is now a flat 10 runs, with -110 action on both sides of the line.

Both teams have played above the total all year long. The Over is 69-61 in Astros games this season and has also gone 69-60 when the Red Sox play.

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Trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Astros and the Red Sox. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox

Astros vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA): While Houston has had generally good results when Javier has taken the mound this year, he hasn’t been the pitcher the Astros expected after his sterling first three seasons in the majors. Javier’s ERA is up two runs from 2022, as he is striking out fewer batters and giving up more hits and home runs. In his last start, Javier allowed three runs on seven hits over five innings against the Red Sox on August 21.

Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68 ERA): While injuries have plagued Sale over the past three seasons, the Red Sox are hoping the veteran can be a reliable option down the stretch and potentially into the postseason. Boston has won 10 of Sale’s 14 starts this year, including two of three since his return from left shoulder inflammation. Sale last pitched on August 23, allowing four runs on six hits over five innings against the Astros.