Auburn vs. Maryland Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Auburn (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) meets Maryland (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Music City Bowl from Nashville's Nissan Stadium on Saturday at 2pmET. The weather forecast for this game is projected to be in the mid-40s and cloudy.
Blitz the books with our unbeatable NCAAF Picks!
Freeze is back in the SEC
Hugh Freeze has had quite a rocky coaching career. He started at Arkansas State where he took them to the GoDaddy.com Bowl in 2011 with a 10-3 record. After one season, he moved on to Ole Miss and had a 39-25 record there, but got in trouble with NCAA violations and also used a university-issued cellphone to call escort services. He was fired after the 2016 season and moved on to Liberty in 2019 where he went 34-15. He took over at Auburn this season and his squad went a disappointing 6-6.
Auburn finished pretty well, beating Mississippi State (27-13), Vanderbilt on the road (31-16) and Arkansas (49-10). However, that came after losing four straight games, and on November 18, their season hit rock-bottom when they lost a guaranteed game at home to New Mexico State 31-10 as a 25-point favorite. Somehow, the Tigers bounced back from that horrific defeat and nearly upset rival Alabama, falling 27-24 on Nov. 25 in their regular-season finale.
The good news for Auburn is that they have a chance to finish the season on a winning note. QB Payton Thorne leads the way with 1,671 yards with 15 TDs and nine picks. The Michigan State transfer also ranks second in rushing with 520 yards and three TDs. RB Jarquez Hunter leads the Tigers with 865 yards rushing and seven TDs. When it comes to injuries and transfers, they were not hit very hard.
Overall, Auburn averages 355.8 yards per game (91st), just 157.1 passing yards (125th) and 198.8 rushing yards (15th). Defensively, they've been solid, allowing 361.1 yards per game (51st) on 201.7 yards per game passing (29th) and 159.4 rushing yards (82nd).
No Lia for the Terps
I mentioned the word "rocky" to describe the career of Hugh Freeze. When you look up the 2023 Maryland Terps football season, you might find the picture of a roller-coaster. This is a team that started the season out with five straight wins and when the schedule started getting tougher, they folded, losing four straight. The losses to Ohio State (37-17), Penn State (51-15) and Michigan (31-24) are understandable. But falling at Northwestern (33-27) as a 14.5-point favorite and Illinois (27-24) at home are head-scratchers.
Head coach Mike Locksley will have his work cut out for him in this game because his starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has opted out. The 5-11 senior could also transfer and seek a sixth year of eligibility. He completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,377 yards with 25 TDs and 11 picks. Since he's not a sure-fire NFL quarterback, he could earn a big NIL number if he left and enrolled in another program.
Maryland will also play without TE Corey Dyches, who has 49 catches for 491 yards along with LB Jaishawn Baldwin (37 tckl, 3ck 1 INT), who are both in the transfer portal. CB Tarheeb Still (5 INT, 45tkl) is opting out.
With Tagovailoa out, Maryland will need to rely more on their running game. QB Billy Edwardsz (41 yds, 6 TDs) has been a wildcat type of QB for the Terps this season and is expected to get the start. Freshman Cameron Edge, who has thrown just three passes this season, should also see time. RB Roman Hemby has rushed for 663 yards with four TDs and Cole McDonald (283 yds, 6ypc) will share time at running back.
Maryland's running game has not been that effective this season as they average just 109 yards per game (117th) and 284.8 passing yards (21st). The passing game will likely take a major fall in this game. Defensively, Maryland has been steady, allowing 336.9 yards per game on 207.3 passing yards and more importantly, 129.6 rushing yards (36th). They played their best game on defense against Michigan, when they held the Wolverines to just 291 total yards.
Thursday's Top Plays
Today's Top Plays
Scott Steehn - 7-2 NFL Totals Run - Snag Scott's NFL Total Of the Month For $29 -
Trent Pruitt - 25-11-3 NFL Run - Grab Trent's TNF Bet Of The Week For $29 -
Tom Macrina - 20-4-2 CFB Run - Snag Tom's Thursday CFB Best Bet For $29 -
David Hedss - 4-1 CFB Run - Snatch Up David's CFB Totals Annihilator For $29 -
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Rating:
These are both mediocre teams in an average bowl. To lay seven points with Auburn against a team without their starting quarterback when they can't throw with any consistency is tough. I don't see Auburn dominating the ground against a pretty good Maryland run defense. That's not to say that Maryland is going to put up 40 points in this one, but they have two good running backs and a quarterback who is a big (6-4, 218) and athletic quarterback that can pose some problems. They'll probably also use a short passing game because the Terps don't want to waste guys like Jeshaun Jones (53 catches for 747 yds) and Kaden Prather (41 for 609 yds).
Prediction: Maryland +7
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
Rating:
With no Tagovailoa, this is a better play than the side. Auburn held Alabama to just 27 points, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to a combined 38 points. Auburn is allowing just 21.9 points per game. They rank first in the SEC in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score just 75% of the time, which also ranks 19th in the nation. Maryland will struggle to score against one of the better defenses they've faced, though they did play Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State.
Prediction: Under 46.5
Ben has been a sports writer for over 35 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for nearly 30 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13! Ben has had great success in handicapping college football, the NFL, college basketball, the NBA and MLB for 27+ years. His Twitter handle is @BenHayesWAW
