Australia vs. England Picks, Predictions & Women's World Cup Odds: Sam Kerr Stands Between England and Final

England, the reigning European champions, are one victory away from the FIFA Women’s World Cup final. But they face a familiar foe in Sam Kerr, with the home crowd backing Australia. Read on for our Australia-England picks based on the Women's World Cup odds from our best World Cup betting sites.

Sarina Wiegman has taken charge of 37 games since becoming the head coach of England, overseeing 29 wins and seven draws. The only defeat for the Lionesses under Wiegman came against Australia, when the Matildas beat them 2-0 in April. These two countries have never met at a FIFA Women’s World Cup event before.

Here is our best Australia-England pick for the Women's World Cup (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Australia vs. England pick

England moneyline (+135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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England’s players will be well aware of the threat Kerr poses. Kerr hasn’t started a game for the Matildas at this tournament because of a calf injury she picked up on the eve of Australia’s World Cup opener. The Chelsea star will be a challenge for England’s solid defense. But can she last a full game? 

Of the remaining four sides left in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, Australia are averaging both the lowest possession figure (51.4%) and passing accuracy (72.5%). However, only Spain have registered more shots (132) and touches in the opposition’s box (267) than the Matildas (76 and 138).

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England have scored 10 goals at the World Cup, only netting more in a single edition of the tournament in 2019 (13). The Lionesses boast the lowest expected goals total of the four remaining teams (8.9).

But England will be difficult to beat if they get ahead. The Lionesses have conceded the joint-fewest goals this tournament (two). However, Australia have kept a clean sheet in four of their five matches. The three goals they’ve conceded came in the 3-2 loss to Nigeria. Only Germany (six in 2007), USA (five in 2015), and Norway (five in 1995) have produced more shutouts at the women's World Cup.

Goals could be at a premium in this contest with so much at stake and tensions high. This is new territory for the Matildas, while a semifinal appearance has become the norm for England. The Lionesses boast the superior quality throughout the team and the big match experience. That’s what we’re betting on with this play.

This is England’s third straight World Cup semifinal. They’ve lost 2-1 in both previous contests, but the team came into this competition with the experience of winning a major tournament after taking the 2022 Euros. Australia have never reached a World Cup semifinal. 

The Matildas ended England’s 30-game unbeaten run in April, but that will give the Lionesses extra incentive for revenge. Nerves will be a factor in this match, and the pressure from the home crowd could work in England’s favor. We’re betting on the experience and quality of Sarina Wiegman’s side with this play.

It’s going to be a close contest, which is why I’ve given it three stars. We can be confident that the Lionesses’ quality and desire for revenge will give them the edge.

Australia vs. England best odds

BetMGM (+135)

England are the favorites to win, and Australia are +240 via bet365, despite the hosts’ resolute defense. Australia lost 3-2 to Nigeria, the team England held to a 0-0 draw and beat on penalties after being reduced to 10 players.

Australia vs. England game info

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 16, 6 a.m. ET
• TV: Fox US
• Location: Stadium Australia, Sydney, Australia
• Weather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9 mph winds

Australia-England pick made 08/14/2023 at 1:55 p.m. ET.

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