Australian Open predictions: John Isner vs. Adrian Mannarino odds, pick

Day 2 of the 2023 Australian Open will likely look plenty different from Day 1 for one reason: The weather.

While the conditions on Day 1 were par for the course at the Aussie, temperatures are expected to rise considerably on Tuesday in Melbourne (Monday night in the United States), and that could lead to some funky results. 

One player that may struggle to handle the conditions is American John Isner.

Josh Isner faces Adrian Mannarino with an expected start time of 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Australian Open predictions: John Isner vs. Adrian Mannarino

It’s always pretty simple when it comes to handicapping John Isner matches. By this point in the American’s career, we know what to expect every time he steps on the court. We’ll see plenty of quick games and tiebreaks as Isner dominates on his serve and struggles when his opponent has the ball. 

Isner’s ability to win quick points with his services may make the weather less of a factor, but this match is being played in the middle of the afternoon in Melbourne and it’s fair to question where Isner’s fitness is at right now. Not only is the Georgia native 37 years old, but he’s also coming off an injury and has been limited to just three matches since the US Open last September. 

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That kind of rust is tough to work through in any setting, but throw in nearly triple-digit heat and humidity and you start to see how Isner can wilt against a solid opponent in Adrian Mannarino.

The veteran Frenchman has a strong serve and does great work on quick, hard surfaces so there’s every reason to believe that Mannarino can answer every question that Isner poses on Monday. 

A lot of matches featuring Isner tend to be close and get decided by who can hold their nerves in tie-breakers, but Mannarino should be able to nip a couple of breaks by relying on his movement and Isner’s rust. That is all it would take to get the edge on Isner, who doesn’t really represent a threat to Mannarino when he’s on serve.

It seems pretty obvious that the betting market is respecting John Isner’s gargantuan serve a bit too much here. If Mannarino is able to extend Isners’ service points just a little bit here and there, the conditions and the American’s lack of fitness should prove to be a vital difference. 

The wrong player is favored in this match, and Mannarino represents excellent value up to -125. 

Adrian Mannarino vs. John Isner pick

Adrian Mannarino (+100, BetMGM)