Australian Open predictions: Three picks for the first Grand Slam of 2024

One of the great betting events on the sports calendar kicks off this weekend.

The 2024 Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the tennis season, gets underway at 7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday and will culminate two weeks later, providing plenty of great sweats for the night owls among us. 

Novak Djokovic (-105) is the odds-on favorite to win his 11th Australian Open, but there are murmurs that the 24-time Grand Slam champion is not 100 percent healthy.

If Djokovic is not at his best, the entire complexion of this tournament changes and the door would open — even if just slightly — for a surprise winner.

Let’s take a look at a few players worth a punt Down Under:

There’s going to be plenty of support behind second-favorite Carlos Alcaraz and third-favorite Jannik Sinner with the rumors that Djokovic is hurting, but I’d rather take a longer number on Medvedev, who once again seems to be flying under the radar relative to the other headliners.

The 27-year-old Russian is a two-time finalist at this event and has a terrific Grand Slam pedigree with a win (U.S. Open), four runner-ups and seven trips to the semifinals. 

I just can’t quit backing Rublev at these long prices at Grand Slams.

Currently ranked as the No. 5 player in the world and coming off a terrific season in 2023, Rublev is one of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour.

The 26-year-old is the only player — male or female — to have at least 50 wins in each of the last three seasons and he’s made the quarterfinals in five of his last seven Grand Slam appearances (he was prohibited from playing at Wimbledon in 2022 due to the Russian invasion). 

If you’re a tennis junkie, you know Rublev made dubious history by becoming the first player to lose his first nine appearances in Grand Slam quarterfinals, but I think that hurdle is helping us here.

Had Rublev had better luck in quarterfinals, his odds would be slashed in half. 

The simple way to look at this is you’re getting the fifth-best player in the world — at least by ranking points — at a huge price.

It’s been tough sledding for Hurkacz in Grand Slams.

The 26-year-old native of Poland has immense talent and power, but his underwhelming record at themajors is hard to ignore.

Hurkacz has made one semifinal (Wimbledon, 2021) but that was the only time he’s ever made it beyond the fourth round at a slam and he’s been eliminated in the second round or earlier in seven of the last 12 slams despite being a seeded player. 

There’s clearly some baggage here and maybe the best-of-five format doesn’t line up with Hurkacz’s game, but he’s still the World No. 9 and, most importantly, has a terrific draw in Melbourne.

Hurkacz’s path won’t see him play a seed until a potential date with No. 21 Tallon Griekspoor and his potential fourth-round opponent would be a struggling Holger Rune. 

There’s no excuse for Hurkacz, who finished 2023 with a win at the Shanghai Masters, not to make a deep run over the next two weeks.