Ball State vs. Bowling Green prediction, odds, pick, how to watch College Football Week 10 game
Bowling Green looks for their third straight win as they host Ball State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Ball State-Bowling Green prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Ball State comes into the game at 2-6, but also is coming off its first FCS win of the year. After opening with losses to Kentucky and Georgia, they got their first win of the year against Indiana State. Then, it was four more losses, including to MAC foes Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Toledo. Then, last time out, they finally got the win. Ball State faced Central Michigan. While they did give up the first points of the game following a turnover, and we were down 3-0, they rebounded. They took a 10-3 lead into the half and then expanded it to 17-3. Central Michigan would make it close late, scoring with just over four minutes left to make it 24-17, but Ball State held on for the win.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green is just two wins away from going to a bowl game. They opened the season at 1-2, with a win over Eastern Illinois, but losses to Liberty and Michigan. After that, they would lose to Ohio, but then upset Georgia Tech. After a second straight conference loss, Bowling Green has not won two straight conference games. They beat Buffalo and then dominated Akron. They were up 13-7 at the half and then scored 21 points in the third quarter before winning 41-14.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ball State-Bowling Green Odds
Ball State: +5.5 (-115)
Bowling Green: -5.5 (-105)
Over: 39.5 (-110)
Under: 39.5 (-110)
How to Watch Ball State vs. Bowling Green Week 10
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Why Ball State Will Cover The Spread
Kiael Kelly is expected to start at quarterback this week for Ball State. Ball State has used three different quarterbacks this year, trying to find a spark. On the year, Bowling Green sits 129th in the NCAA in scoring this year. They are also 126th in passing this year. Kelly has completed 24 of 47 passes this year for just 234 yards and no touchdowns. He does have an interception on the year as well. Meanwhile, Layne Hatcher and Kadin Semonza are the other two quarterbacks who have taken snaps. Semonza has passed for 480 yards this year with three touchdowns but five interceptions. Meanwhile, Hatcher has passed for 563 yards and four scores and is the only quarterback without an interception.
Running the ball has been an issue for Ball State this year as well. Kelly is second on the team in rushing this year, with 366 yards on the ground and two scores. Meanwhile, Marquez Cooper is the team leader, and the only running back over 100 yards this year. He has run 121 times for 584 yards this year. Most of his yards have come after contact, with 449 yards. He has also scored just twice this year.
The receiving core is led by Qian Magwood. He has brought in 34 of 44 targets this year for 309 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Tanner Koziol, the tight end, is the only player with more than one touchdown receiving. He has two this year, with 242 yards receiving this year.
The Ball State defense has allowed 29 points per game with over 360 yards per game allowed. The run defense is solid, ranking 41st in the nation. They are led by Cole Pearce who has 27 stops for offensive failures this year, with 32 total tackles. His average depth of tackle is sitting at just 2.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. In the passing game, they rank 84th. The pass rush does have 19 sacks this year with 102 quarterback pressures. That is led by Sidney Houston Jr. He has eight sacks this year with 25 pressures. Meanwhile, they have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this year while coming away with just three interceptions this year.
Why Bowling Green Will Cover The Spread
Connor Bazelak returned to action last game after missing the game against Buffalo. He has completed 80 of 140 attempts this year while passing for 897 yards on the season. He has five touchdowns this year, with one of them coming last week. Still, he has six interceptions this year with another eight turnover-worthy passes. Bazelak has also scored one on the ground this year.
The offense is focused on Terion Stewart this year. He has 661 yards on the ground this year, with seven touchdowns. Stewart is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, with 4.78 yards coming after contact. He has 18 runs over 15 yards this year, with another 11 runs over 10 yards this season. Meanwhile, Stewart has also forced 70 missed tackles. Stewart has run for over 100 yards in four of the last five games overall.
The receiving game does not have a lot of studs. This year, only three guys have over 200 yards. Odieu Hilaire is the top receiver on the team with 228 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Ta'ron Keith has 224 yards out of the backfield and a score. Harold Fannin Jr., the tight end, has 201 yards this year with two scores.
On defense, Bowling Green forces turnovers. They are 12th in the nation in turnovers this year. Jalen Huskey has been great this year in coverage. He has allowed a touchdown, but he has four interceptions. Meanwhile, Jordan Oladokun, Avi McGary, and Davon Gerguson all have two interceptions this year. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has two solid pass rushers. Cashius Howell has five sacks this year, with 18 pressures. Darren Anders has four sacks this year, with 11 total pressures.
Final Ball State-Bowling Green Prediction & Pick
Bowling Green is allowing just 25 points per game on defense this year, while the Ball State offense has been very poor this year. Further, Ball State turns over the ball a lot, and Bowling Green is one of the best in the nation at taking the ball away. Bowling Green may not have the best offense, but two things are skewing their stats for the year. First, they faced Michigan and struggled. Second, Connor Bazelak has been injured. He is getting healthier, and Ball State is nowhere near the defensive level of Michigan. Take Bowling Green in this one.
Final Ball State-Bowling Green Prediction & Pick: Bowling Green -5.5 (-105)
