Bowling Green vs. Kent State odds, line, spread: 2023 Week 11 MACtion predictions, best bets by proven model

The Bowling Green Falcons aim for revenge against the Kent State Golden Flashes on Wednesday evening. Bowling Green lost to Kent State by a 40-6 margin at home in 2022, and the rematch is set to take place at Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. The Falcons are 5-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play this season, and Bowling Green is on an active, three-game winning streak. Kent State is 1-8 overall and 0-5 in MAC competition, with the Golden Flashes seeking their first FBS win of the year. 

SportsLine consensus lists the Falcons as 10.5-point favorites for this 7 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS Sports Network. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 40.5 in the latest Bowling Green vs. Kent State odds. Before making any Kent State vs. Bowling Green picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bowling Green vs. Kent State and just revealed its picks and MACtion predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Kent State vs. Bowling Green: 

• Bowling Green vs. Kent State spread: Bowling Green -10.5
• Bowling Green vs. Kent State over/under: 40.5 points
• Bowling Green vs. Kent State money line: BG -390, KSU +302
• Bowling Green: The Falcons are 5-4 against the spread this season
• Kent State: The Golden Flashes are 2-6-1 against the spread this season
• Bowling Green vs. Kent State picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Bowling Green vs. Kent State live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Bowling Green can cover

Sophomore running back Terion Stewart is dominating the competition in the MAC so far. The Falcons hope to have him on the field as he's considered a game-time decision due to a leg injury. Stewart is averaging 103.2 rushing yards per game in MAC action, generating five rushing touchdowns in five conference games. He is also averaging 6.1 yards per game for the full season, and Stewart brings a career average of 6.3 yards per carry into this contest. If he can go, he'll square off against a Kent State defense that has allowed the most points (32.8 per game) of any MAC team this season. 

The Golden Flashes are in the bottom four of the MAC in rushing yards allowed and passing yards allowed, and opponents are averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt with 18 touchdowns and only five interceptions this season. Stewart could tee off on a defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns (19) in the conference, and Kent State is also in the MAC's basement in sacks (nine) and third down efficiency allowed (48.4%) in 2023. See which team to pick here.

Why Kent State can cover

Kent State is facing a Bowling Green offense that has sputtered in key areas against MAC competition. The Falcons are last in passing yards (102.6) when accounting only for MAC games, and Bowling Green has more interceptions (12) than passing touchdowns (10) overall this season. Bowling Green also has the fewest first downs (12.0 per game) of any MAC team in conference games, and the Falcons are converting fewer than 33% of third down chances in 2023. Kent State has been stout against the run in MAC action, giving up only 114.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. 

On the other side of the ball, standout wide receiver Chrishon McCray gives the Golden Flashes a quality offensive centerpiece. He leads the MAC in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this season, and McCray torched Akron for six catches, 161 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in Kent State's last outing. Bowling Green has struggled to get off the field in MAC games, giving up a 49.3% third down efficiency mark, and that projects to help Kent State to sustain drives. See which team to pick here.

How to make Kent State vs. Bowling Green picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine.