Ball State Win Total: Cardinals Unlikely To Overcome Trend

Historically, Ball State has been a very middle-of-the-pack program in the MAC. More often than not though, the Cardinals have finished the season in the bottom half of the league, where they typically tend to win 4 or 5 games. In fact, since 2000, the Cardinals have won four or five games in 11 of those seasons — 48% of the time. 

This can be aggravating for a team (and a fan base) because there are usually those couple of games each season that could have gone either way and maybe the Cardinals have been on the unfortunate end of some of those situations.

With all of this considered, college football betting odds listing Ball State’s win total at 5.5 games seems spot on, especially looking at the schedule. The over currently sits at +125 and the under is juiced at -150.

It seems like whether the over or under hits will all come down to just one game. If the Cardinals reach six wins, it’ll be only the third time in the last 10 years. 

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The first game on the schedule that immediately sticks out is a home contest against Georgia Southern in Week 4. This might be that one game that could get the Cardinals over the hump. If they’re able to keep the ball away from the Eagles’ offense and run the ball behind their stout offensive line with new RB Marquez Cooper, the Cardinals might win this matchup of the birds.

Assuming Ball State wins its Week 3 matchup versus Indiana State and defeats Georgia Southern, this could potentially set up for a three-game win streak early in the season. A Week 5 game at Western Michigan should be another winnable contest. 

The next possible victory comes in Week 8 in a date at home with Central Michigan. The Chippewas defense seems promising as of now, but their offense is a question mark. Depending on how their offense is rolling at the time could dictate this outcome. 

Next up is a bye week followed by a critical three-game stretch. Ball State could either go 3-0 or 0-3 in these games. The Cardinals will travel to Bowling Green coming off the Week 9 bye, and if they win, the extra week of preparation will be a big factor why. This is followed by a trip to Northern Illinois and then a home contest against Kent State. The Cardinals will likely need to win two of these three to reach six victories, and the Kent State game should be a W.

A trip to Kentucky before a contest on the road against the reigning national FBS champs will probably equal an 0-2 start for the Cardinals. Weeks 7 and 8 also feature matchups that don’t look too promising in a visit to Eastern Michigan and versus Toledo. 

Ball State finishes the season with an out-of-division contest against Miami (OH), which should be another tough game to win.

Much of what will be Ball State’s destiny in 2023 rests on the shoulders of transfer QB Layne Hatcher. If Hatcher can guide the offense to put up respectable numbers, then the Cardinals will have a decent chance to hit the over 5.5 wins. 

However, too much is riding on a victory over Georgia Southern — which will be a tall task — and then a win against what should be potent offenses in Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. It will be tough to trust a defense that was suspect last year and is replacing four starters in its secondary. 

I’m going to lean with the trend here and go with under 5.5 wins for the Cardinals in 2023. I think they fall short and finish 5-7 for the second year in a row.