Baltimore Orioles Season Prediction, Odds and Props
With the NFL reaching its conclusion in dramatic fashion this past Sunday in Arizona, the sports world shifts its attention to college basketball, golf, and the rest of the four North American majors. That includes baseball, as pitchers and catchers are set to report to Spring Training across the league this week.
That includes the Baltimore Orioles, whose pitchers and catchers will head to Sarasota, Florida, on Wednesday. The first workout will take place the following day, with the remainder of the roster set to report to Ed Smith Stadium next Monday.
Signs of Progress for Baltimore Orioles in 2022 Season
There is finally some reason for optimism inside the O’s organization and not just at the minor league level. They couldn’t quite put it all together for a postseason run in 2022, but there were signs throughout the year that the club was breaking out and looking to snap a playoff drought that dates back to 2016.
“This is honestly the first Spring Training that I’ve been standing here openly talking about the playoffs, so I think that’s a big deal,” general manager Mike Elias recently said. “We knew we had talent going into last year, but the way that the team materialized and congealed and just kind of clicked on a clubhouse level, you just never know how that’s going to go…and now we’re at a point where our focus has turned to getting into the postseason in October.”
Let’s take a look at some MLB odds as they stand in February and break down our Baltimore Orioles season prediction.
Orioles Wins O/U 76.5
The Baltimore front office might be selling a breakthrough season, but oddsmakers aren’t buying it quite yet. The O’s finished with 83 wins in 2022, one of four AL East teams to finish above .500, but the only one not to qualify for a playoff berth. And now their O/U wins projection is six-and-a-half less… interesting.
That might have more to do with their starting pitching rotation than the rest of their lineup or the fact that the rest of the AL East still appears better on paper. The Orioles’ two notable pitching acquisitions this winter were Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin. Not necessarily inspiring pickups, but Gibson has World Series experience now after spending last season in Philadelphia.
Both veterans are locks to be in the rotation out of camp, while there will be roughly ten others vying for the other three spots. One of those candidates is Grayson Rodriguez, a top-10 prospect in baseball who should get every opportunity to fill a slot 3-5.
Youthful and Talented Lineup Offers Promise for the Baltimore Orioles in Upcoming Season
The lineup is still young, hungry, and ready to build off the momentum they created last season. Looking at the Baltimore Orioles stats from a year ago, Anthony Santander was tied for 13 in the majors in homers with 33, and speedy Cedric Mullins was third in the bigs with 33 stolen bases. Austin Hays will join those two to comprise the everyday starting outfield.
The team needed a lefty bat in their infield and got one in the form of Adam Frazier as the former Pirate, Padre and Mariner signed a one-year deal this offseason in free agency. Another young gun to look out for is Adley Rutschman, who enters his first season as the full-time catcher and is expected to be a cornerstone piece of this new era for the foreseeable future. Keep reading for more of our Baltimore Orioles season predictions.
Pick: OVER 76.5 Wins
Gunnar Henderson – Rookie of the Year (+300)
The top prospect in the sport is also the favorite to take home the Rookie of the Year hardware this season. The Orioles’ system is chock full of top prospects, including Rodriguez (also 10-1 to win this award) and Rutschman. Jackson Holliday was the No.1 overall pick in this past MLB Draft and the most notable non-roster invitee who will open the spring in big league camp.
Henderson should get every crack at being the guy at third base for Baltimore, though he will get some looks at shortstop as well, with gold-glover Ramón Urías giving him spells at the hot corner too. The long-term plan is for the left side of the infield to be occupied by Henderson and Holliday for the next decade, and O’s fans think the sooner, the better.
Looking at MLB team stats, Baltimore had 91 errors in 2022, tied for the 11th most in Major League Baseball. It’s worth noting, however, that Gunnar is in the bigs for his bat, and his arm will need to catch up.
To Win the AL East (+2200)
The Baltimore Orioles odds of winning the division are the highest among the five teams. It’s certainly not surprising to see the Yankees (+105), Jays (+220), and Rays (+380) ahead of them, but the Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, thrusting Rafael Devers into the face-of-the-franchise role, surrounded by a lot of role players.
The Orioles would certainly have to make a major leap to cash this bet, and we’re not recommending this as one of our MLB picks. However, +380 to make the playoffs poses good value as we could see this franchise become buyers at the deadline for the first time in a long time.
Final Baltimore Orioles Season Predictions: OVER 76,5 Wins, Yes to Make Playoffs (+380)
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