Barcelona vs Osasuna prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Spanish Super Cup semifinal

Barcelona look to defend their Supercopa de Espana title as they match up against last year's Copa del Rey runners-up Osasuna in the semifinals from Saudi Arabia.

The expanded four-team competition features the league and domestic cup title winners from the previous year, in addition to the cup finalists and highest league finisher otherwise unqualified. With Copa del Rey winners Real Madrid and La Liga third-place finishers Atletico Madrid meeting in the other semifinal, these two clubs will battle for the other spot in Sunday's final.

Both Barcelona and Osasuna are having down years by their own standards. Barca won the league title last season and Osasuna finished in a European qualification position as well as reaching the Copa del Rey final.

This season, however, Barcelona sit third in the league, a full seven points adrift of those above, while Osasuna reside in 12th and narrowly survived a lower-league opponent in their Copa del Rey Round of 32 matchup over the weekend.

USA:

Barcelona vs Osasuna prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Barcelona (-245)
• Score prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna

There's an expectation that Barcelona will open the floodgates against Osasuna in the semifinal, as they have created the most chances of any team in Spain this season. Yet they struggle to finish those opportunities as Robert Lewandowski flounders in front of goal.

With Pedri out injured for another few weeks and Gavi out for the season, the Barcelona midfield lacks the creativity to pummel teams and may have to grind this one out against an Osasuna side sure to be defending in numbers.

Barcelona vs Osasuna match facts

• Date: Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
• Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)
• Referee: Alejandro Muniz
• Last meeting: Osasuna 1-2 Barcelona (Sep. 3, 2023 | La Liga)

Barcelona vs Osasuna best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 goals
• Odds: +130 (DraftKings)

Barcelona have not defended well this season compared to their record-setting performances last campaign, but they remain a force at the back on the whole. They have conceded in four straight league matches since holding Atletico Madrid off the scoresheet, but in two of their last three they held their opponents under 1.0 expected goals.

A big issue for Barca has been the injury to regular goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, and his backup Inaki Pena has been poor. Yet Barca still concede the third-fewest expected goals in the Spanish top flight, and Osasuna do not create many chances themselves.

The only real question is whether Osasuna can keep a lid on the match, and with Barcelona holding the third-worst finishing mark in the Spanish top flight thanks to Robert Lewandowski's miserable season in front of goal continues, there's a decent chance of Barcelona ending this match frustrated even in victory.

Barcelona vs Osasuna prop bet

• Pick: Raphinha to score or assist a goal
• Odds: -130 (FanDuel)

The struggles of Robert Lewandowski in front of goal have been well publicised, but Ferran Torres is mired in a similar goal scoring slump. That leaves one Barcelona forward to carry much of the load in recent weeks — Raphinha.

After the Brazilian was heavily criticized last season for his own struggles in the attacking third, he's been the most influential Barcelona forward over the past few months in both the creativity and finishing departments.

Raphinha pulled assists in four straight league games through December, an impressive feat on a team sporting such poor finishing throughout, indicating Raphinha's propensity to create easily finished opportunities. He scored in the 3-2 win over Almeria in late December, and again in the past weekend's Copa del Rey victory. Raphinha is critical to this Barcelona side as they otherwise struggle in front of goal.

Barcelona vs Osasuna live stream, TV channel

In the United States, ESPN owns the broadcast rights to the Supercopa de Espana, just as they own the rights to the Spanish league. All matches will be shown on their premium streaming service ESPN+.

In addition, this semifinal between Barcelona and Osasuna has been selected for television broadcast, with ESPN airing an English-language broadcast on ESPN2 as well as a Spanish-language broadcast on ESPN Deportes. Both channels are available to stream on Fubo.