Baylor vs. Air Force prediction: Weather a key in how to bet the Armed Forces Bowl

The college football postseason continues, with the Baylor Bears taking on the Air Force Falcons in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, and we have a Baylor vs. Air Force prediction.

Baylor will play in a familiar environment, with the venue being TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium.

However, a 20-degree temperature with wind speeds of 21 miles per hour could feel very unfamiliar for the Bears.

In this preview, we’ll examine why the conditions could be detrimental to the Bears on Thursday night.

Spread: BAY -3.5 (-112) vs. AF +3.5 (-108)

Moneyline: BAY (-178) vs. AF (+146)

Total: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

Air Force +3.5

I spent a lot of time going back and forth in my analysis. My blended power ratings suggest the Bears should be close to a seven-point favorite.

However, the weather could undoubtedly shift the pendulum toward the Falcons.

For one, Colorado-based Air Force could feel right at home.

The double-digit wind speeds could also hamper whatever passing game either offense tries to deploy.

Given those scenarios, one team we know that’s less likely to be impacted is the Falcons.

According to TeamRankings, no program threw the ball fewer times on average than Air Force (11.45%).

And when the Falcons are running the ball, Gameonpaper.com ranks them fifth overall in expected points added (EPA) per game (6.83) and 13th in success rate (46.5%).

Defensively, Baylor hasn’t fared too well against the run. CFBGraphs ranks the Bears 95th in EPA (0.068 per play).

And while Baylor isn’t terrible at running the ball, as evidenced by its 188.4 rushing yards per game, it is averaging roughly one fewer yard per carry (4.4) than the Falcons (5.2).

The difference in this game is the Bears will have to move the ball without relying heavily on their passing game. Thus, keeping their drives alive could be a bit of a challenge.

Despite having a heavy run offense, the Falcons’ third down conversion rate (42.95%) is higher than that of Baylor’s (41.4%).

When you put it all together, there’s no question that the circumstances surrounding this game seem to favor Air Force more than Baylor.

As a result, we’ve seen the market adjust accordingly, with Baylor bet down two points after opening at -5.5.

You can do much worse during bowl season than following where the money goes.

Since 2021, our Action Labs database shows that teams are 50-31-1 against the spread for 14.87 units when the line moves in their favor.

Lastly, Big 12 teams who open as favorites are on an 0-7 ATS run when facing an opponent that averages at least 5.2 yards per carry.

With both system plays aligning with the Falcons, I think we have a pretty good case for taking the points here.