Bears vs. Commanders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

sportsbookreview.com

02 October 2023

Bears vs. Commanders Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

The Chicago Bears look destined for the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft and will try to overcome last week’s historic loss ahead of Thursday Night Football against the Washington Commanders. We have you covered with our best Bears vs. Commanders predictions for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

Chicago is off to its first 0-4 start since 2000 (and has lost 14 games overall dating back to last season), but its latest loss to the Denver Broncos was particularly frustrating, as it tied its biggest blown lead in franchise history (led by 21 points in the third quarter).

Meanwhile, Washington fell victim to the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 4-0 for the seventh time in franchise history. The Commanders have allowed 35.5 points per game during a two-game losing streak.

Here is our best Bears vs. Commanders prediction for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bears vs. Commanders prediction: Thursday Night Football

The Bears have allowed 25-plus points in 14 consecutive games, the longest such streak in NFL history. Meanwhile, the Commanders played the best team in the NFC to a stalemate on the road for 60 minutes and had a chance to win in overtime after possessing the ball first.

Now Washington is at home against one of two winless teams through four games and is less than a touchdown favorite? Needless to say, we are intrigued by the oddsmakers’ tempting line.

While Chicago has had a historically poor stretch of defensive football, Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is not exactly a gunslinger. He has been sacked 14 times during the team’s two-game losing streak and ranks 28th in passer rating. And it is not like Washington’s defense has been stout lately, as it has allowed 33 or more points in three straight games for the second time in the Super Bowl era.

Justin Fields can build off last week’s performance, where he became the first in franchise history with four or more touchdown passes in a single game since Mitchell Trubusky did it in 2018.

This is a contrarian four-star play, as Commanders head coach Ron Rivera said he did not go for a potential game-winning two-point conversion at the end of regulation last week, citing that his team was gassed. That does not bode well coming into a short week, and we are using the fact that Chicago has not covered the spread in seven consecutive games (0-6-1) to our advantage.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Bears vs. Commanders best odds

All major sportsbooks are in unison with a 6.5-point spread, but DraftKings is our go-to shop based on being the only one charging less than standard -110 juice to back the underdogs.

Based on the line movement and public perception that Washington is the rightful favorite in this game, it may behoove Bears backers to see if the line reaches the key number of seven on its own.

If it doesn’t move that far, we would not put anyone off backing Chicago’s +7.5-point alternate spread, and we would be comfortable paying up to -140 for the inflated number.

Bears vs. Commanders odds for Thursday Night Football

This line has skyrocketed at several shops from an opening number of Washington -4.5. It has been a steady increase across the board, as there has not yet been any buyback on the Bears at any number along the way up to 6.5. However, sharps must be backing the Commanders at most shops, as the early point spread wagers are split dead-even.

DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a total of 45 points, as all other shops are in unison with an O/U of 44.5. BetMGM opened the highest of any sportsbook as the only one at 45.5, but Under backers quickly weighed in and drove the line down to 44 before rebounding to 44.5. Despite the Under cashing in each of Washington’s last seven home games, 65 percent of the early wagers have backed the Over.