Belmont Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds (Belmont Park)

The Foxes and Silver Knott, a pair of multiple group stakes winners in Europe, visit the U.S. to headline a field of eleven young turf horses in Saturday’s $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park. 

The Foxes finished fifth last time in the Group 1 Epsom Derby, but before that, the Irish-bred son of Churchill was a determined winner of the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York.

Silver Knott, meanwhile, has already run in America two times for top turf trainer Charlie Appleby. 

The son of Lope de Vega just missed in last fall’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and then finished a close third in last month’s Grade 2 Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park.

Chief among their challengers in the Grade 1, 10-furlong Belmont Derby are the two horses who finished ahead of Silver Knott in the Pennine Ridge.

The winner was Kalik, an Ontario-bred son of Collected. Trained by Chad Brown, he has won three in a row on the grass, including two straight impressively at Belmont Park.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Far Bridge has finished second in his last two after winning his first two career starts. 

He was beaten a nose in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs, before encountering traffic trouble when second last out in the Pennine Ridge.

Belmont Derby Predictions and Race Analysis

The Foxes

This Irish-bred son of Churchill will certainly have no problem with the 1 1/4-mile distance of Saturday’s Belmont Derby. In fact, he will be dropping in distance from a fifth-place finish last time in the English classic, the 12-furlong Epsom Derby. 

He was getting very good late in his juvenile season for trainer Andrew Balding, and he has carried over that good form in 2023. 

A solid second in the Group 3 Craven to begin the season, he followed that up with a good score in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at 10 1/2 furlongs. If he is sharp in his U.S. debut, he is a major threat to win the whole thing.

Silver Knott

Charlie Appleby has had great success bringing his good European turf horses to America and winning some of our best turf races. He could do it again on Saturday with this classy son of Lope de Vega. 

A strong second last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he returned to the States last month and was beaten just a length while trying to rally into a slow pace in the Pennine Ridge Stakes. 

I do wonder if he is as good at 3 as he was last year compared to the rest, but still, he is an obvious threat, who could win this with just a small move forward off the last.

Kalik

Trained by Chad Brown, this Collected colt has been nothing but good since switching to the grass four starts back. A good second as a 2-year-old, he has rattled off three straight to begin the year. 

His last two are his best yet, as he went right to the lead to dominate an allowance race at Belmont, before coming back four weeks later to defeat some strong competition in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge. 

In both, he got an easy pace to run on, and that probably won’t happen on Saturday. He is certainly a threat to win another, but I do like a few others better here.

Far Bridge

This son of English Channel is a bit unlucky to have only two career wins in four tries. Nipped by a nose two starts back in his stakes debut, he had a rough trip when second last time behind Kalik. 

Trained by Todd Pletcher, he is bred to run long on the grass, and this will be his longest attempt yet. Clearly an up-and-coming turf star, he should once again make his presence felt on Saturday. 

Perhaps this time he will also have a little more luck. In a loaded field, this colt is one of the most likely winners of the Grade 1 Belmont Derby.

Webslinger

This three-time stakes winner has won half of his eight career turf starts and has been competitive in the others. A son of Constitution, he also has never been better. 

Two starts back, he earned his biggest career win by rallying late to nip Far Bridge in the Grade 2 American Turf. He validated that upset with a much easier win last time in the Audubon Stakes, also at Churchill Downs. 

Trained by Mark Casse, he should have no problem with the 10-furlong trip on Saturday. This will be his toughest test yet, though.