Belmont Derby odds & analysis: 4 legitimate win contenders

The Grade 1, $1 million Belmont Derby Invitationalfor 3-year-olds drew an international field of nine. Seven American runners and two from Europe will race 1 1/4 miles on the Belmont Park inner turf course on Saturday.

In 1994, the Jamaica Stakes was moved to the grass and was run at a distance of 1 1/8 mile. That race was renamed as the Belmont Derby in 2014, moved to the 10-furlong distance and then became the first leg of the Turf Trinity series in New York in 2019.
Here is a full field analysis for the Belmont Derby, which will be race 9 on the eleven-race card, with morning-line odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff.

1.Palazzi(8-1 – Pioneerof the Nile – Mark Casse / T. Gaffalione– 10: 2-2-2 - $239,070) Palazzi is well-raced, which is usually the case with Mark Casse runners. His 10 starts include three-on-the board finishes and one win in stakes races. He was first in the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston in January after a late rally. That goes with a third in the Black Gold at Fair Grounds and a pair of seconds in the Transylvania (G3) and the Audubon. Use underneath.

2.Bolshoi Ballet(5-2 – Galileo – Aidan O’Brien / Ryan Moore– 6: 3-0-1 - $103,454) This son of the great European sire Galileo is a two-time Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in Ireland for Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore team. He was sent off as the favorite in four of his six starts, with 5-1 the longest odds of his career. All six races were run on turf courses ranging from very wet conditions such as soft, heavy and yielding to good. A hard and dry American grass course will be a new experience. O’Brien has had his fair share of success in the Breeders’ Cup but not nearly as much in his other attempts around the country. Win contender.

3.Safe Conduct(20-1 – Bodemeister – Phil Serpe / Jose Lezcano– 5: 2-1-0 - $115,250) Safe Conduct has two wins and a second in his three turf starts. He had a May turf victory in an allowance at Belmont against Public Sector, who just ran second in a stake for Chad Brown. Toss.

4.Sainthood(6-1 – Mshawish – Todd Pletcher / Joel Rosario– 5: 2-2-0 - $201,900) Admittedly, I have been a fan of this horse since his second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G2) on the Kentucky Derby trail. In the Run for the Roses, the Todd Pletcher runner finished mid-pack in 11th place. Pletcher brought him back in the Pennine Ridge (G3) at Belmont Park, which came off the grass and was run on the sloppy main track. He was part of the pace throughout the nine furlongs as he pulled away to win by a length. Although still untested on the grass, turf horses often do well on sloppy tracks. Pletcher has been able to get a couple of workouts on the grass at Belmont Park. Win contender.

5.Du Jour(4-1 – Temple City – Bill Mott / Flavien Prat– 5: 3-1-1 - $375,220) Du Jour began his career racing for Bob Baffert and has won his last three races, starting with maiden and allowance wins at Santa Anita.  He then took the American Turf (G2) with an off-the-pace rally on the Kentucky Derby undercard. With Mott's prowess training for the turf, Du Jour should not miss a beat. The trainer will be looking for his third victory in this race. Top choice.

6.Hard Love(6-1 – Kitten’s Joy – Jonathan Thomas / M. Franco– 4: 3-1-0 - $161,350) This ridgling has won three of four career starts for trainer Jonathan Thomas. He won his debut in October of 2020 at Belmont Park and then made the jump to a stakes race at Aqueduct, where he was second. In his 2021 debut again at the Big A, Hard Love got black type in the Woodhaven while pressing the pace. He prepped for the Belmont Derby with an allowance win at Belmont, where he got up right at the wire. Thomas won the Belmont Derby in 2018 with Catholic Boy. Win contender.

7.Tokyo Gold(8-1 – Kendargent – Shinya Kobayashi / John Velazquez– 7: 3-1-1 - $418,472) This French-bred, Japanese-owned grey colt is the leading money winner in the field with three wins – two of them in France and the other in the Derby Italiano (G2) in May. His victories came after stalking trips when he took control of the race in the stretch. Toss.

8.Cellist(5-1 – Big Blue Kitten – Rusty Arnold / Julien Leparoux– 4: 2-1-0 - $131,740) Cellist won his last start at Churchill Downs in the Audubon with a front-end effort going nine furlongs. At Keeneland, the son of Big Blue Kitten rallied from ninth to lose by a head bob in an allowance. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park in February. Cellist has the look of a horse that is coming into his own. Win contender.

9.Hidden Enemy(20-1 – Galileo – Steve Asmussen / Luis Saez– 8: 1-2-1 - $113,820) Hidden Enemy was fourth in his last two starts – both times behind horses that are in this field, most recently in the Audubon and before that in the American Turf. Those efforts came after his maiden victory at the Fair Grounds in March. Toss.

Summary: This a difficult Belmont Derby field to handicap, with the entire field looking for their first Grade 1 victory. As 3-year-olds, most of them have not run many times and it is difficult to compare the American and European starters.

One of the measuring sticks that I always use for the Europeans is to look at the tracks where they ran. Aidan O’Brien’s horse Bolshoi Ballet has a pair of Group 3 victories at Leopardstown, which is one of the top tracks in Ireland.

Of the Americans, Du Jour has a class edge as the only Grade 2 winner in the field. Cellist and Hard Love have multiple victories on the grass, including a stakes win.