Ben Coley golf tips for the Masters: Third-round betting preview and tips

Golf betting tips: The Masters round three

It's been a disrupted and underwhelming Masters Tournament so far. Despite what looks like a dream formula in some ways, LIV Golf's standout player versus one of the 'big three' from the PGA Tour with the reigning US Amateur champion thrown in for an added layer of intrigue, most of the talk has been around Rory McIlroy's failure and those falling trees on Friday night.

Now that the second round is finally finished, focus will switch to those three players, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm and Sam Bennett, who fill the first three spots on the leaderboard and will play together in round three. Those in fourth place or further down have at least six shots to make up over the weekend and while that might've felt possible with some help, the presence of Rahm in second makes this already look like a match, the assumption being that Bennett can't keep up over the weekend.

Rahm touched odds-on with a few firms after his birdie at the 17th hole on Saturday morning, that despite having 37 holes to play and still yet to hit the front. Again this underlines the spreadeagled nature of the leaderboard, with those in 20th place fully 10 shots adrift. In foul weather which has the twin effects of removing fire from Augusta but limiting birdie and eagle opportunities, it's very difficult to imagine anyone overcoming a sizeable deficit.

If there's a caveat it's the prospect of the weather becomes so problematic that very little golf takes place. At the time of writing, with the 12th green resembling a puddle, that's certainly possible and with a better forecast for Sunday afternoon and into Monday, there is a chance that the third and fourth rounds in fact take place under conditions conducive to low scoring, as we saw on Thursday.

Such a scenario might mean that Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth or someone else inside the top 10 is able to threaten the course record (63) and insert themselves into what otherwise ought to become a head-to-head. Still, giving Rahm at least a four-shot start on a soft course, and another couple to Koepka, remains a very difficult thing to do.

I'll stop dancing around the subject: the list of potential winners feels like it has two names on it.

My vote goes to Rahm, who has been on the wrong side of the draw and will have been thrilled with how he went about edging closer, even if he did drop shots at the 16th and 18th holes either side of a fabulous birdie at the 17th.

Koepka has been superb and we know of course that he's won more majors than Rahm, but that's almost five years ago now and this is very different to edging out Peter Uihlein and Sebastian Munoz. He's not underestimated but Rahm is the superior player and two shots doesn't look a big enough lead. I agree with the market but won't play at less than 6/4.

BoyleSports are betting without the front two – it staggers me that they're alone in doing so, but perhaps that will change – and those who can bet with the Irish firm would be pointed towards Viktor Hovland at 7/1.

It's a real shame this market isn't more generally available as it's wide-open behind a surely vulnerable leader in Bennett. Hovland has been best of the rest if we apply the adjustment for his poor draw and I wouldn't have him any bigger in the market than Morikawa (5/1), nor Spieth (13/2). Softer conditions help Hovland, too, and his distance advantage over Morikawa could be significant.

Any improvement in Shane Lowry's putting would see him threaten while Sam Burns has to be respected, Justin Rose won a US Open in these conditions and Jason Day won't mind them either, but Hovland with four places on offer looks a knocking bet if you've access to it.

With the final group out less than two hours after this preview is updated, no three-ball selections will make the staking plan. Advice for readers looking for a bet is to favour big-hitters in mismatches, which would put Thomas Pieters and Keith Mitchell on the radar. That double pays close to 8/1 with bet365 and Pieters in particular looks overpriced at 5/2, with Tiger Woods asked to play 25 holes on a cold and wet day.