Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Newmarket 2000 Guineas card and Goodwood
The Verdict tips: Saturday May 6
1pt win Novus in 1.20 Goodwood at 10/1 (Hills)
1pt win Perdika in 2.15 Newmarket at 6/1 (Hills, BetVictor)
1pt win Apollo One in 2.50 Newmarket at 16/1 (General)
1pt win Chaldean in 4.40 Newmarket at 15/2 (bet365, Coral)
Chaldean the one to beat Rodin in the Guineas
The QIPCO 2000 Guineas is fascinating with ante-post plunge Auguste Rodin attempting to set hoof on the Triple Crown trail for Aidan O’Brien at Newmarket on Saturday.
He’s an exciting prospect, but he looks very short to me for this race given what we saw from him at two, where mile races on soft and heavy ground looked the perfect launchpad for a middle-distance campaign at three.
If he has the pace for this race and wins the Triple Crown is ON, as he is bred for a trip, but he’s not for me at odds around 7/4 in a market that is tight around the favourite.
It’s a more open race than that for my money and, while it wouldn’t surprise me if O’Brien won the classic anyway with Little Big Bear, 5/1 odds about him aren’t quite enticing enough considering his absence from the track since last August.
Indeed, plenty of these have question marks against them, but the one who looks really solid to run his race is Juddmonte’s CHALDEAN for Andrew Balding and Frankie Dettori at a very fair 15/2.
Dettori kept the partnership intact for just two yards in the Greenham Stakes, which was unfortunate, but the soon-to-be retired jockey can make amends for that by winning the 2000 Guineas for the fourth time on his last go.
Chaldean has had his good juvenile form franked by Indestructible and Isaac Shelby this spring, even if he didn’t get the chance to boost it himself at Newbury, and his uncomplicated style can be a real asset in a Guineas where plenty have to prove themselves at the trip in one way or another.
He has done all of his winning over seven furlongs, but he looks a miler through and through being by Frankel out of a speedy mare and it was noticeable how he relaxed with racing at two.
Still a bit keen when winning the Acomb at York on his third start, he announced himself as a racehorse after that when professionally accounting for Indestructible and Silver Knott in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
He made all again in the Dewhurst, proving himself on the Rowley Mile, where I felt he was always holding Royal Scotsman and talented owner-mate Nostrum - who would’ve been a player here but for a setback.
Chaldean has made it to the Guineas via a little mishap, but he can go well from a prominent position under Dettori here, either by making all or sitting on the shoulder of Dubai Mile (the most interesting of the outsiders at 40s given he’s a tough G1 winner who stays further).
The Verdict: Back CHALDEAN in the 2000 Guineas
Apollo mission in the Howden
On the rest of the Guineas card there are some terrific supporting races and I like the look of APOLLO ONE at 16/1 in the Howden Handicap over six furlongs at 2.50.
This horse was second in a heritage handicap on the July Course off a mark of 100 and he ran off the same mark in this race last year when shaping well in eighth after a previously poor run at Lingfield.
A year on he arrives here off a 3lb lower mark of 97 and when he was last seen he was in great nick at Kempton where he landed the London Sprint Series Final off 94.
That was 178 days ago, but he has won off a similar break and his local handlers will have pointed him at this contest from a long way out.
He’s an uncomplicated speedy horse who is good enough to compete well in Group races, so there’s more mileage in his current mark and 16/1 is fair in a really competitive race.
The Verdict: Back APOLLO ONE in the 2.50 Newmarket
Perdika to strike for Boughey-Buick team
The Listed Kilvington Stakes used to be run at Nottingham and it has been dominated by three-year-olds who receive 10lb on the weight-for-age at this distance at this time of year.
Only the shrewd George Boughey runs fillies from that age group this year and his PERDIKA could be the one to take advantage.
She is second in on official ratings here, 2lb behind the seven-year-old Gale Force Maya, after winning a Listed race at Chantilly in March and she backed that up with a really good effort in another Listed race when second to Happy Romance at Bath last time.
Those races were over five or an extended five so she has plenty of gears, but she’s a three-time winner over seven so stamina is not an issue for this return to six furlongs.
William Buick, who has ridden 37 winners for Boughey at a 24% strike-rate, takes the ride, and she’s expected to use her speed and allowance to good effect in this.
The Verdict: Back PERDIKA in the 2.15 Newmarket
Champagne super-Novus at Goodwood
Over at Goodwood plenty of rain is forecast on Saturday and that looks likely to be in the favour of Gary Moore’s NOVUS in the William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap at 1.20.
The three-year-old has bags of staying power on her dam’s side and won her maiden at Newbury on soft ground as a juvenile, so putting the emphasis on stamina in this seven-furlong handicap should play to her strengths.
That Newbury maiden worked out very well, with eight subsequent winners beaten in behind, so Novus looks a filly to follow when she gets her conditions this season.
With the weather as it is that could be now, a mark of 82 certainly not looking too harsh on that Newbury evidence, while she caught the eye on her reappearance at Newmarket (replay below).
The race developed on the far side, but Novus was quietly nursed into seventh from off the pace on the near side by Saturday’s rider Tom Queally under hands and heels riding. I’d expect her to improve plenty for that.
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The Verdict: Back NOVUS in the 1.20 Goodwood
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