Ratings Update: Guineas trials and Scottish Grand National
John Ingles highlights the key changes to the Timeform ratings after the Craven meeting at Newmarket and Saturday's cards at Newbury and Ayr.
The Scottish Grand National was a late-season highlight of the jumps action at the weekend, but we’ll start with the Guineas trials which took place at Newmarket and Newbury last week.
None of the runners in the Craven Stakes was shorter than 25/1 in the betting for the 2000 Guineas beforehand, indicating it wasn’t a race that’s likely to have a major bearing on that classic, though winner Indestructible (115 from 107) proved better than ever on his first start for Karl Burke to earn his place in the Guineas line-up, racing freely but rallying to beat the Royal Lodge winner The Foxes (112p from 108p) by a length and a quarter. The runner-up was the only one in the field without a 2000 Guineas entry, but his future lies over further and he shaped well ahead of a likely step up in trip to contest a Derby trial.
Indestructible had twice been beaten by Chaldean (118) last year which heightened anticipation of the Dewhurst winner’s return in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury two days later. However, he caught a bump leaving the stalls which unshipped Frankie Dettori, removing much of the race’s interest. But that shouldn’t detract from a smart effort from winner Isaac Shelby (117 from 103), who made all in a good time in the heavy ground to beat the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte winner Charyn (107 from 107p) by three lengths. While the runner-up will have more to do at Newmarket, the winner, successful in the Superlative Stakes last year before finishing last in the Dewhurst, isn’t entered in the 2000 Guineas but should be a leading contender for the French equivalent.
Back at Newmarket, there was plenty to like about the two colts who fought out the listed Feilden Stakes, both of them showing plenty of improvement but still having something to learn. Canberra Legend (110p from 94p) made it two out of two and looks an exciting colt, and while he hasn’t been ruled out of the 2000 Guineas, his half-brother Youth Spirit won the Chester Vase and the way he rallied after running green to lead close home and beat Kolsai (109p from 88p) by half a length suggests a Derby trial is the obvious next step for him, whereas the runner-up, who shaped very well, is likely to be at least as effective back at a mile.
Both the 1000 Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury were won by fillies who had won their only previous starts. At Newmarket, Mammas Girl (107 from 83p), in the Amo Racing colours also carried by Indestructible, caused a 16/1 surprise in the Nell Gwyn Stakes but didn’t go unbacked and showed an excellent turn of foot to win in clear-cut fashion, though almost certainly had an advantage getting cover in rear from a significant headwind before going clear nearest the stand side to beat Prestige Stakes winner Fairy Cross (remains 100). Mammas Girl will have to improve again to emulate Cachet, who completed the Nell Gwyn/1000 Guineas double last year, but the way she finished gives plenty of hope that she’ll get the mile.
Newbury’s Fred Darling Stakes was more steadily run than the Greenham and plenty were in contention two furlongs out, so the first two did well to assert in the closing stages with Remarquee (104p from 95P) getting the better of another who’d won her only start last year, Stenton Glider (103p from 85p), by a neck after her rider had dropped his whip. Remarquee ran green, carrying her head a little awkwardly and hanging left, but looks sure to go on to better things at Newmarket if handling the track, while the runner-up was the pick of the field on looks and is sure to progress too having responded well when asked for her effort.
Moving on to the older horses, Ottoman Fleet (120 from 119) won a good renewal of the Earl of Sefton Stakes to open his account at Group level in ready fashion. He was another at the Craven meeting probably helped by being played late given the wind blowing down the Rowley Mile, but he rarely runs a bad race and should continue to hold his own in pattern races. Two-length runner-up Poker Face (115 from 113p) lost his unbeaten record but emerged with plenty of credit upped markedly in grade, while the likeable Raadobarg (114 from 109) ran well a neck back in third on his first outing for George Boughey and will remain of interest when there’s cut in the ground.
Ottoman Fleet was successful for Charlie Appleby but the Godolphin favourite Creative Force (remains 120), who made the frame in some top sprints last year, could finish only third behind older rivals Garrus (119 from 117) and Commanche Falls (119 from 116+), who were split by just a head in the Abernant Stakes. The winner’s turn of foot proved decisive in a race that was steadily run by sprint standards, while Commanche Falls stuck to his task and was clearly all the better for his reappearance earlier in the month.
A bigger disappointment for Godolphin was the poor showing of 2021 St Leger winner Hurricane Lane (115+ from 126) on ground that should have suited in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury. Instead, it was much the longest-priced pair who took the first two places, both of them coming from off a very sound pace given the testing conditions, with Grand Alliance (114 from 112) beating former November Handicap winner Farhan (107 from 103) by two and a quarter lengths. The winner could be the type to make a better four-year-old and further progress can’t be ruled out, though plenty went his way on this occasion.
There were three listed races on Navan’s Saturday card with much the best performance coming in the Vintage Crop Stakes which had ironically been downgraded since last year. With top stayer Kyprios on the sidelines at the moment, Emily Dickinson (120 from 114) looks like being a major player in the staying division for Aidan O’Brien judging from this performance as she showed further improvement on her reappearance to forge clear in the heavy ground for a five-length victory over last year’s Irish Derby third French Claim (115 from 113).
In contrast to the testing conditions at Newbury, the ground was drying out at Ayr which resulted in several withdrawals from the Scottish Grand National, notably that of ante-post favourite Monbeg Genius, and left a field of 18 to go to post, the smallest since 2009. As a result, the finishers weren’t that strung out, though last year’s runner-up Kitty’s Light (147 from 144), like stablemate Win My Wings last year, followed up his gritty Eider victory in decisive fashion, typically finding plenty to shrug off a mistake at the last and beat recent Topham faller Cooper’s Cross (136 from 134) by three lengths with Irish-trained Flash de Touzaine (132 from 128) rallying strongly for third ahead of Threeunderthrufive (147 from 149), who came out the best horse at the weights. On a good mark at present, Kitty’s Light is entered in next Saturday’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown having been placed in the last two renewals.
Elsewhere on the card, the Future Champion Novices’ Chase went to Datsalrightgino (150 from 144), who stayed on well to beat Thunder Rock (148 from 150) by a length and three-quarters, both the first two running better than they had at the Cheltenham Festival the time before and the winner looking worth a try over three miles next season. Improving novice Rubaud (139 from 136) followed up his win in the Dovecote at Kempton in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, seeing things out strongly from the front to beat smart Irish challenger Colonel Mustard (147 from 149) by three lengths. The winner has all the qualities to make a smart novice chaser next season.
