Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Saturday ITV racing at Cheltenham and Doncaster
The Verdict: Saturday, October 28
1pt win Kinondo Kwetu in 2.25 Cheltenham at 12/1 (William Hill, 11/1 General)
1pt win Matters Most in 2.45 Doncaster at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Aberama Gold in 3.20 Doncaster at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor)
1pt win Lisnamult Lad in 3.35 Cheltenham at 13/2 (General)
Singing for England at Cheltenham
With Doncaster in the balance after Friday’s card was abandoned it could pay to focus on day two of the Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham, where the track has taken the recent bucketload of rain well.
After over 90mm of rain in October Cheltenham remains Good, Good to Soft in places and clerk of the course Jon Pullin was delighted with the course ahead of Friday’s card where the times suggested that going description was spot on.
All this will be music to the ears of Sam England, who runs KINONDO KWETU in the Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase at 2.25.
The seven-year-old loves better ground, so much so he’ll likely be kept away from the worst of the winter and brought back for a spring campaign, and with conditions in his favour he can run a big race from top weight here.
The son of Casamento has a super strike-rate over fences having won six from nine and he’s improved his form significantly since the application of a tongue-tie, his win at Aintree in April and third at Uttoxeter in July hinting he has the tools to win a nice prize from his current mark.
Both of those runs came off top weight, so he has no problems giving weight away to good horses, and he’s usually such a good jumper that the uncharacteristic mistakes he made at Uttoxeter means we can mark up that performance significantly.
Throughout his chasing career he’s proven himself a strong traveller and the likely strong pace on here, with a handful of front runners in opposition (see predicted Timeform pace map, below), should play to his strengths as he moves into contention from mid-division.
With England’s horses starting the season well he looks in a good place for a bold bid and double-figure prices about him underestimate his chance.
The Verdict: Back KINONDO KWETU in 2.25 Cheltenham
Brief Times (5), Quick Draw (8), Hidden Heroics (10), Whacker Clan (12) and Swapped (14) could ensure the 2.25 Cheltenham is run at a solid pace.
Lad the latest McConnell special
Later on at Cheltenham Irish raiders Antrim Coast (Gavin Cromwell) and Reverend Hubert (Charles Byrnes) dominate the betting for the William Hill Epic Weekend Free Bet Novices’ Hurdle over three miles.
However, it’s another Irish raider that catches the eye in LISNAMULT LAD for John McConnell, who won this race in 2020 and 2021 with Streets Of Doyen and Bardenstown Lad.
Indeed, McConnell has a great record at this meeting, winning six races from 20 runners at a 30% strike-rate, and this horse is well experienced for this test having run four times over hurdles.
He's won his last two small-field assignments over trips around two-and-a-half miles at Hexham and Ludlow, but moving up to three miles looks likely to unlock significant improvement in this point-to-point winner who is from a family of staying chasers.
McConnell had options for this race at the five-day stage but relies on this improving six-year-old who looks a spot of value at 13/2, even against the Cromwell juggernaut.
The Verdict: Back LISNAMULT LAD in the 3.35 Cheltenham
Get stuck into what Matters Most at Doncaster
It's with hope Doncaster gets the green light (7.30am precautionary inspection) as it’s a fascinating renewal of the Group 1 Kameko Futurity Trophy where Godolphin and Coolmore go into battle with yearling purchases totalling over £4million.
Ancient Wisdom has usurped Diego Velazquez in the betting and, while I fully get the market move, the Ballydoyle horse has drifted to a very tempting price at 5/2 given his own potential.
His Leopardstown form has been franked and he’s been given a typical two-race prep that has worked out for so many of Aidan O’Brien’s 11 previous winners in this race.
The testing ground is going to be very different to anything any of these horses have faced before and it doesn’t look ideal for Diego, but he might well have the class to get away with it.
There look to be better bets on the card, though, including ABERAMA GOLD in the William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap over five furlongs (3.20).
The six-year-old has won on his last two starts on heavy ground, including a Stewards' Cup on barely raceable conditions, his four subsequent defeats resulting in a new mark just 1lb higher than when he triumphed at Goodwood.
I thought there was encouragement to take from his latest run at York, however, as he was third home in his group from the unfavoured near side and before that he wasn’t beaten far in the Ayr Gold Cup where he raced too keenly.
He hasn’t run over a bare five furlongs for ages, but it’s an interesting angle with him given how well he travels over six at his best and the ground conditions could well spark him back to winning form.
Finally, MATTERS MOST is worth a punt in the Listed William Hill Prospect Stakes over six furlongs at 12/1.
This is a drop in class for him after he contested the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last time, a race in which he completely bombed out under Hector Crouch.
That was on heavy ground, but I wouldn’t blame the conditions for his performance as it was more the fact he couldn’t settle at all in the first quarter mile and was then stuck out on the wing.
Eased home once his chance had gone, it’s telling that Ralph Beckett has declared him for another heavy ground assignment and he had previously looked a solid juvenile when chasing home stablemate Task Force at Ripon, a horse who ran a blinder in second in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes.
On that form he doesn’t have much to find at all with the market principals, while it’s good to see Rossa Ryan is back on board, a jockey who gets him to race efficiently and is two from four on the horse.
The Verdict: Back ABERAMA GOLD (3.20) and MATTERS MOST (2.45) at Doncaster
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